CAPE

Well, it was a win lol. Not sure how big it was.

They have reached their "natural" level. This apparently happens even in a dramatically shortened baseball season. At least they will exceed my predicted win total.

A few hundredths here. Driveway is almost completely damp.

12z GFS gives your yard a respectable amount of rain. Pretty big shift.

^Glad I was out there the past 2 days. FW there now.

This looks like a Blue Ridge special, with up slope enhancement due to the position of that high and the shortwave focusing the lift there.

It seems that high and associated dry air is going to do a number on attempts for significant moisture to advance too far north and east. Euro is on its own att, although some of the CAMs have at least a little rain. GFS is now mostly dry north and east of DC.

Just back from a day at Shenandoah National Park. Did some nice hikes. Weather was incredible. Mid 60s in the higher elevations.

Looks like I got another 0.62" here yesterday. A bit over 11" for the month. St Michaels is over 18" for August.

Nice. I am in Luray. Wonder if it did anything at my house. I ran into one brief downpour driving out here, and a few light sprinkles. Otherwise sunny. Really nice here now.

I was looking at the US drought monitor. A lot of moderate and some pockets of severe up in NE. Nothing in our region, I would have expected to see some pockets of abnormally dry, but going back to July and early August I think it was generally wet for the entire area, despite some places missing out over the past 2-3 weeks. eta- there is a small area of abnormally dry in the far western highlands.

Some booming thunder in that new line that developed to my south. The general guidance was correct on jack-potting the southern third of the area.

My yard was on the northern part of the W-E oriented area of rain overnight, with the better convection to my south. Lots of long/ low rolling, house vibrating thunder from those storms. Rained pretty much all night, but never heavy. Picked up 0.65". 1.07" since Thursday evening, and 10.4" for the month.

Slight risk today. From the Mount Holly AFD this morning- With sufficient CAPE and fairly strong shear expected (30-40 kt 0-6 km bulk wind difference) along with alarmingly high values of storm- relative helicity (150+ J/kg), I am concerned storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes. As alluded to, the threat is conditional on the degree of instability that develops, but the tropical nature of the vertical profiles suggests to me that CAPE will need not be that large to promote an environment favorable for organized/rotating storms. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms today across the entire region, and this seems reasonable to me.

Just looking at the upper levels on the GFS and Euro for this week. Pretty similar. Looks like several shots of rain, and maybe a lot of it. Remains to be seen exactly where, but our general area looks to be in the cross hairs.

Moderate rain here with a few rumbles of thunder. Perfect for watering the new grass.

If the NAM is correct, Saint Michaels may be close to 20" for the month by tomorrow. Sitting at 15.62" currently.

A snippet from the updated AFD from Mt Holly- Hot and humid into the early evening hours ahead of an approaching shortwave. Showers and thunderstorms over central Pennsylvania will continue to track east, and additional storms will fire up ahead of that main area. Temperatures remain in the 80s to around 90 with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. As a result, surface-based CAPE values are up around 2000 J/kg across Delmarva and from 1500-2000 J/kg across southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. Across Delmarva and southern New Jersey, DCAPE values are up around 1000 J/kg. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear is minimal, generally around 25 kt, but up to 40 kt across far northern New Jersey. Finally, PWATs are from 1.5- 2.0 inches. Thunderstorms moving into the unstable airmass, especially across the southern half of the forecast area, will become strong to severe, with damaging winds and heavy rain the most likely impacts.

Are you seeing a low level dust cloud kicked up as the heavy rain falls?

I didn't pay much attention to the mesos since it looked like all the action was going to be up north today. Nice surprise. Picked up 0.43"

Impressive storm blew up here. Wasn't expecting anything tonight. Gusty and pouring with some impressive T&L

I'm drinking a NE Hazy IPA from True Respite! It's good!

Too much inverted V. This will probably congeal nicely on the lower eastern shore.

Storms dropping southward to the east, storms dropping southward to the west... nada in between. Mostly what the latest runs of the mesos were advertising.

Just wait till winter.