CAPE

Looking pretty toasty and humid for much of next week. Good bet we see a couple 90 degree days with pretty high dews.

DFH Oak Aged Vanilla WWS for HH. Freaking delicious.

Not surprising. As I have said, the QBO correlations seem nebulous, but in theory it impacts the strength of PV, and thus potentially the AO/NAO phases, so I would expect to see better correlation(-QBO) during a Nino, when HL blocking episodes are more prevalent (and we tend to get more snow).

CFS is on one of its better "runs" lately, Big picture h5 for Dec and Jan look pretty decent, and is a 'believable' look for a typical weak Nina. Feb doesn't look bad either, but with the massive +height anomalies it has in the EPAC, there would probably be more of a ridge in the east, although it also suggests a -NAO lol.

This area rarely sees big snow totals from a Nina, but can do ok with smaller events and scraps, and sometimes make it to average. That is a hell of a lot better than the crap we dealt with last winter. Ofc you have to completely tune out the fact that places further north are getting hammered from miller Bs while our region mostly gets jipped. We are who we are here, and we sure as fuuck aren't NNE.

Looking at CoCoRaHS map, Saint Michaels is at 14.72" for the month.

The Winery. Great selection of craft beers plus they have some locals on tap if you want a growler.

This is pretty much how it went in 2017-18. The early Jan period was memorable for folks in the eastern MA, esp right along the coast with the blizzard. The snow also stayed around for a week or so with the cold, before moderating a bit.

I also managed to find DFH 120 IPA and the Oak aged WWS. Wishing Well In Easton is the shit. They have a huge selection, and no other place around has the WWS or the 120s right now. Just a tad on the pricey side.

Drinking a #Black Is Beautiful Imperial Stout. Its a collaborative effort. Check it out. The one I am enjoying is from Cushwa Brewing Company. It is excellent. Has some characteristics of an oatmeal stout- creamy, lacy head. This one is 10% abv.

0.28" this morning. 9.32" for the month. 75 here currently.

Something to keep in mind with the general gloom and doom/early predictions for a warm winter- wrt the "new" normal/base state of the Pacific, in conjunction with a Nina, it doesn't necessarily translate to a crap winter. The last Nina we had was just 3 years ago, and it did produce a very respectable cold period, the bomb cyclone, and for some of us, normal snowfall. My yard was literally right at or maybe a tad above average. Point being these changes in the Pacific certainly existed to some extent then, and this stuff waxes and wanes each season even if the general trend is headed in an 'unfavorable' direction going forward. Nina winters can be an exercise in frustration wrt snowfall for the MA, but an anomalous cold period. even in an overall warmish winter, does happen- we just need to time it up and get lucky.

This, plus a stalled front across the area.

How much, if any, energy from that southern trough will be able to eject northeastward to give our area some rain chances towards the weekend? This would be a much more interesting discussion if it were winter, in what would be a favorable NA pattern, with confluence to our NE. The suppression fears would be real.

The most reliable indicators we have about the character of winter are ofc ENSO, and then the recent persistence of the background state in the Pacific. At this point its hard not to have visions of a persistent pig ridge sitting over the EPAC exactly where we don't want it.

Good downpour right now.

No shelf, just a gradually weakening line moving in with some thunder. Still some pretty cool looking clouds with rain shafts in the distance.

63 this morning. Fall preview week. Fronts moving through, lower dew points, pleasant temps. Courtesy of a +PNA/-NAO, a combo that we will likely never see a few months from now.

Feels really comfortable out there now. Cool and breezy. Currently 68. Thinking of Fall .

Agree. They play hard, but overall lack talent. The ownership is clearly awful, but that does not have an impact on how hard this group tries on the field. I am a realist. Sure "anything" is possible in a significantly shortened season plus expanded playoffs, but if they can finish .500 it would be an accomplishment, and far better than most experts thought was possible(and clearly better than the 14-46 record I predicted lol).

After keeping the mosquitoes under control and a non issue from Spring through mid summer, the recent rains have brought out the late summer variety. Nothing like the early onslaught that occurs in Spring if I don't control it with larvicide, but it has become somewhat annoying at this point. I have to use spray when I am working outside now.

Chuck needs to expand on the stock market/crude oil correlation to the global weather patterns. He might be on to something. Probably cant be any worse than the SAI/AO bullshit.

Finally brightening up here, and the rain has stopped. Event total of 0.90" 8.83" for the month

From Mount Holly- Steadier rain is moving slowly eastward and will likely progress offshore by mid afternoon. Lighter/scattered showers will remain in the wake of the main precipitation shield this afternoon, so have kept fairly high PoPs through the afternoon hours near/east of the urban corridor. So far, highest QPE has been in northern/central Delmarva and on the central New Jersey coast, confirming a rather poor overall performance of the model suite for this event (both in terms of geographic placement and total rainfall). I concur. The models were all over the place, and no one model was very close with the distribution of the qpf, while hitting the actual min/ max locations. The 12z and 18z runs of the GFS yesterday caught the heavier precip(2" amounts) just south and east of DC, but then lost it after that. It probably did the best overall though. Euro was pretty decent overall, but had like 8" of rain along the beaches of MD and DE on the 12z run yesterday( I didn't look at 0z). 3km NAM was too wet, too far NW, and then went dry everywhere with its early morning runs. It had next to nothing here, which was totally wrong.

Sweeeeet Baby Jesus! lol can you taste the peanut butter?