CAPE

Its real, but not bad the past month.

I am at 4.5" for the month. Would be nice to make it to 5 tonight. As if it matters lol. More grass shriveling up to thatch by the day. Cant win in the woods. Need to get that sun angle down..

ha, still good rains up that way!

That line needs to fill in a bit for @nw baltimore wx

90/80 here. MUCAPE and SBCAPE values of 4k+ over the Delmarva per SPC meso analysis.

89/80

I drink it as it was intended- a digestif. Plus the cold brew coffee version is much better imo.

A few Jagerbombs?

0.56" from the storm last night. Had some impressive T&L.

Mount Holly AFD on the severe threat for Wed- Kind of a mixed bag in terms of environmental parameters. Temperatures will no doubt be on the hot side, but MLCAPE values are somewhat of a question mark due to uncertainty in how much mixing will occur. While MLCAPE will certainly be sufficient for convection, there is disagreement on whether values will be "good" or "great". If dew points mix down into the 60s, convection may struggle to develop or weaken as it approaches, as some of the CAMs suggest. However, if dew points remain in the 70s, instability will be greater. So mesoanalysis with regards to the dew points will be important. In terms of shear, deep layer flow will increase as the shortwave approaches. Bulk shear has trended down a bit, and may only be in the range of 25 to 30 kt, whereas yesterday 35 kt or slightly greater looked achievable. SRH parameters also do not look as impressive, with shear profiles looking increasingly unidirectional, not to mention the generally weak low level flow. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, it is a low risk, and the better chance for that will probably be to our north where SRH is better. Given warm low levels, modest mid-level lapse rates (around 6C/km), and likelihood for linear convective organization, severe hail is also a fairly low risk. So the main hazard is going to be damaging wind. Shear values, while not great, should be sufficient for some organized multicell convection, with some of the CAMs suggesting an MCS is possible. Difficult to pin down where exactly the greatest threat is, with still a fairly wide spread in CAM solutions, hence the continued broad-brushed slight risk area in the SWODY2. Would generally favor areas further west and south (E PA and Delmarva) for the greatest chance of severe weather since they should have the best instability and since diurnal timing looks most favorable there, but a risk exists everywhere.

How about I apply. I could use a career change. Sounds fun! You wouldn't mind, would you?

One topic I teach is flow measurement principles and methods.. there is a technique based on vortex shedding- the Karman Vortex street. Cool stuff, and a phenomena observed on all scales, atmosphere included. There is also a Coriolis Mass flow meter that is very commonly used in industry, and I get to go off on a tangent and explain how the principle of operation has nothing to do with the actual Coriolis effect lol. Easy to incorporate weather into my lessons.

It is for sure. I'm not sure I could teach high school lol.

It kinda went that way!

Engineering courses. I get to teach the fun stuff- industrial automation and networking. Our students all work on big ships- merchant marines and US Navy predominately- and a few other commercial customers from the maritime industry.

I just finished converting a course to online format. That may be the only one, as our courses have major lab components, and/or physical assessments. Students really need to be here to complete the courses we offer. We will see how this goes. Cant account for everything, and ofc there is human nature, and nature of this virus. It could always go badly, as it has in several places on a larger scale when people don't comply with the simple, painless, and proven methods for minimizing spread.

I am a bit of a drama queen. We are back in session here, running well below capacity. Not your typical school. The "kids" are at least early 20s. We have folks come here from all over. At least one dude here is from Texas, and a few from California. Quite a few staff and adjunct instructors here I know are high risk, should they get infected. The COVID policy is pretty solid, but there are things I don't like.

Just looking back at 2017-18, the QBO(u30) was moving into the negative phase in Fall and stayed significantly negative through the winter. That winter was decent wrt cold outbreaks/anomalous cold, at least for Dec and Jan. I think that was technically a moderate Nina, but the QBO influence on the tendency for cold that winter may have been real. The previous winter, also a Nina, QBO was moving into positive territory and stayed positive, and it was more the typical Nina eastern US torch. Again this is cherry picking one index in isolation, and so it is always difficult to determine the actual impact. The character of the Nina events were quite different between those 2 winters.

Probably not worth doing any reanalysis at this point, but maybe he included 'cold' neutral years as well as weak Ninas. The sensible impact of the QBO generally seems nebulous, unreliable, and likely gets overwhelmed by other factors in reality. Looking at the 30mb trends, it also appears to be moving in the "wrong" direction currently.

I don't think its the bay. Loss of daytime heating with not much going on frontal wise or upstairs to keep it going is more likely.

Still 85. Too bad that line of storms is heading south of here.

Looking at the means, seems we get a bit of a break from the "big heat" beginning late this week into the weekend, plus a potentially more stormy pattern? Impressive upper ridging develops over the mid west- which is suggestive of some notable changes here, at least for a few days.

When I looked at the op earlier it was pretty much the same as yesterday- most of the action later this week was south of our area, but maybe a tad further north.

Dew point is still high though. 78.

High here was 94. Forecast high was 98. Bit of a bust, considering today was supposed to be "worse" than yesterday. 91 currently.