CAPE

Pretty good stuff here from Mt Holly- At 250 mb a subtropical jet was noted around KWAL with another ~90 kt speed max located over western Ontario. The subtropical jet is forecast to re-orient and center over the NC/ VA border. This would place the DELMARVA in a Left Front Quadrant (LFQ) or under upper level divergence. The northern stream jet is forecast to propagate east through the base of the trough axis and center over northern NJ. This would place central and southern NJ in a Right Rear Quadrant (RRQ), or upper level divergence. The jet structure isn`t completely coupled, but some interaction appears likely. At 500 mb strong height falls are occurring over central Quebec (~100 m) with mostly weak height falls across central NJ (~30 m). The overall idea is for this wave to continue to amplify as it digs southeast. The primary DCVA will be located over New England, and the northern Mid- Atlantic States. At 700 mb a weak wave was noted across the Great Lakes region and is forecast to continue to dive southeast towards WV and VA. Overall this wave feature appears to track too far south and west of the region to affect our area. Earlier this morning there was some precipitation that tried to move into the region from the west, but quickly fell apart. This has allowed for the entire CWA to be under mostly full sun for the entire day. As a result the entire area has destabilized, with the greatest destabilization being across the DELMARVA with ML CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A surface cold front is currently located across west/central NY into western PA and is heading southeast. The orientation of the cold front will slowly transition from SW/NE to more of a W/E orientation. Forecast soundings continue to advertise mostly unidirectional tropospheric flow with effective bulk shear values around 25 kts. The latest 18z KWAL sounding was slightly different than initially expected with a descent amount of dry air in the 300/500 MB layer. Lapse rates in the 500 to 700 mb layer were around 6.6 degrees C though, with DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. The general idea is for convection currently in central PA to continue to head southeast towards MD and the DELMARVA. The anvil storm relative flow vectors with these storms is easterly, and this can clearly be seen on visible. As the anvil debris continues to spread east, cold pool reinforcement and amalgamations appear likely. This means the convection will likely continue to take on a more linear appearance. The primary threat with these storms will be damaging winds.

The damaging wind threat looks legit for later today where convection develops/propagates. Pulled this forecast sounding off the 3km NAM . Steep lapse rates in the low/mid levels, dry air aloft, impressive Dcape.

Excellent write up. The bolded is the bottom line, and pretty much what I expected would be the case. Another "thought". With SSTs basin wide on fire lately, can a weak Nina even produce the same sort of atmospheric response as it would have say 20 years ago? At some point you would think a sliver of slightly negative sst anomalies would get overwhelmed, and have about the same 'impact' on the atmosphere as a neutral/warm neutral ENSO... more variable/less "typical".

Excerpt from Mount Holly AFD this morning on tomorrow's potential- As we move into the day on Tuesday, the weather looks like it will become quite interesting. Guidance continues to indicate a convective complex should develop Tuesday morning.. . A stronger shortwave will track from the Great Lakes towards the Mid Atlantic quickly during the day and push the convective complex towards the southwest. Strong deep layer shear, and steering flow in excess of 40kts should lead to forward propagating storms. Equilibrium levels will be quite tall and so storms will likely become quite tall with >40kft echo tops possible. With quite a bit of instability out ahead of the lifting mechanism, up stream initiation looks likely. As was mentioned by the day shift yesterday, wet bulb zero heights appear to be too tall to see large hail, so the main threat for any severe will be strong to possible damaging winds.

Since it is pretty clear we are heading towards a weak Nina for the winter at this juncture, how many weak Ninas/cold neutrals(just to expand a bit) over say the last 50 or so years have featured a -AO/-NAO for at least a third of the winter? Not that this correlates to above normal snowfall because we already know it doesn't the majority of the time with a Nina. Just trying to gauge the prospects of at least somewhat mitigating what will probably be a less than favorable Pacific, to at least improve the odds for some decent cold periods, and perhaps luck into a few well timed fluke events. Not that we will ever actually see a -AO/NAO in winter again lol.

^See Orioles, this is what good teams do. Addition by subtraction. Take the financial hit. Move on.

Ravens are about to release Earl Thomas, unless they can trade him. That would be a big bust, given the 4 year deal, and that he was mediocre in year one last season, and also the big cap hit they will take. Probably his behavior more than his performance, although they are intertwined. Very undisciplined during games.

No I get that. I am working in sections, and have areas in different stages. The first section I did a couple weeks ago almost needs cutting now, and I don't water as often, but longer when I do. But as I have said here before, in general my soil is well drained and dries out quickly. I just loosened/turned over a new area yesterday to seed, and a few inches down it was pretty dry, despite over 9" of rain this month.

Can see birds taking flight in 4 different areas, simultaneously, on the Dover radar this morning. Pretty cool.

Yeah had a few 61-63 degree mornings here. I have the sprinkler running now. Gotta keep the new grass watered to get those deep roots. Trees still robbing the soil moisture for another month or so.

Saturday, 4PM. DFH 120 min IPA consumption time. Its been a while, my very high gravity friend.

One month until the Autumnal equinox. The daily change in daylight hours will be approaching maximum over the coming weeks. Yessss!

Yeah some spits and drizzle here. .02" Looks like a pretty gross week coming up. Very warm and muggy.

Red Sox finally found a team they can beat.

Did you come up with that? If so, I am impressed lol. I like it. So it is official- the male counterpart to a Karen, is a Chad.

^According to Reddit, its either Chad. Kyle, or Keith.

lol Its one of those trendy terms/memes. Look it up on urban dictionary. I better be careful, because its probably considered sexist, although there should be the equivalent for men too.

472 cases and 3 deaths in Caroline. Living in an area with an extremely low population density has its advantages. Everyone here seems to comply with mask wearing, minus a few exceptions. Always a Karen or 2 around.

Happy Friday HH! Drinking a 'Straight outta the Southern Hemisphere' triple IPA.

The pitching is less than mediocre, and they aren't talented enough offensively to overcome that against better teams. If they play sloppy like they have at times during this losing streak, they wont beat the crappier teams either. Hopefully they can get it going back the other way and at least remain watchable.

Sorta like my bigfoot(Daryl) analogy with a -NAO.

Likely depends on the strength of the Nina. A moderate to strong Nina and +QBO likely eliminates any chance of HL blocking. A cold neutral/weak Nina AND a severely negative QBO may allow for either some HL blocking episodes or some favorable EPO periods, providing a mechanism for cold outbreaks in the east. PSU is saying his research finds no correlation, during a Nina winter, specifically between QBO and snowfall for the MA.

That would be perfect timing as long as it doesn't end up a slow moving front with rain. Having a family meetup near Luray that weekend. That would be awesome weather for some mountain hikes.

Yeah I was going to post a panel showing that, but TT just died.

TT is beyond slow now- its inaccessible.