CAPE

DOX radar down yet again.

Looks like the trend on the latest guidance is for the High over SE Canada to nudge far enough south to give us a mostly dry weekend. It wont be "perfect", but more comfortable with temps in the low to mid 80s and somewhat lower dew points

It's because the set up is favorable for isolated to scattered convection, with high pwats and little in the way of steering flow. Hard to pinpoint exactly where this will occur, thus the broad brush flood watch. So yeah not everyone will see the heavy rain, but for places that do, it may be excessive, and given the recent bouts of heavy rain it wont take too much to cause flash flooding in the more saturated areas.

Old news. CPC/NCEP issued the watch a month or so ago.

WPC has the region in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall.

Not really. LWX doesn't mention how widespread the coverage will, or wont be, while Mount Holly went into more detail on the mechanisms that will be in place for storm initiation, as well as uncertainty on the coverage due to weak lift/ shear. Bottom line is there will be some slow moving cells that will drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time, thus the FFW.

Good read on the setup for today from Mount Holly. There will probably be plenty of areas that don't see heavy rain, or much of anything. Locations that get under a storm will get dumped on.

You suck at trolling. Maybe give up?

No I loosened the soil and raked it in, then covered it with peat moss. Not expecting rain here until maybe Thursday anyway, so it should be fine.

Summary of ENSO update as of yesterday(8/10)... Looks like cold neutral/borderline weak Nina is most likely for winter at this juncture. Could work out ok. We can do median/mean snowfall with some help elsewhere. Anyone expecting KUs will ofc be checking in to the panic room luxury resort fairly quickly.

Its a bit of a struggle this early for sure. Shit posters fill in the dead time though, so we good.

For the most part yes. I know you saw his attempt to troll psu yesterday morning, as it was removed. It was quite elaborate for him.

Yeah you see this a lot on the Dover radar too. Generally emanates from nature preserves, like Eastern Neck in Kent county.

Ha I wasn't even considering Phin in that post. We all mess around and engage in good natured trolling. Helps keep the sanity. Some do overreact to the benign stuff though. Mersky is another story. Pure shit poster.

Not sure that is whats driving it, but I suppose Its presence may have some influence in maintaining it. The phase of NAO domain is notoriously difficult to predict with any significant lead time, and the "drivers" likely involve a complex set of interactions. The one thing we can state with certainty is that the positive phase has been dominant during the winter now for a significant period.

Much of that may be attributed to a coolish wet period per the GFS.

Call it what you want. Some of your recent posts(replies/reactions) in this thread were odd, given the context and nature of the discussion. Maybe relax a little. It's early. I will make a bold prediction- It will snow this winter.

Yes. Its a few, who are over emotional/hysterical, or simply trolls.

There seems to be conflation (by some) between objectivity and pessimism. You and I, and folks like Bob Chill, will always have to deal with that it seems.

I promise to do my best to make my very first quality post ever on this forum. Please bear with me and be patient. I know I have it in me.

LOL "Called out" by a legit troll. GTFOH. You really are a dope. Maybe you aspire to be like him. If that's the path you want to take here, go for it. Good luck with that. I don't think you have what it takes tho.

Because you say the same general things yet weenie him? Doesn't take brilliance (although I am brilliant) to see that. Still waiting for your first quality post bro. You have been around here for a year or so now. About time, yeah?

Its the same thing every year. The bad vibes and anticipated doom probably begins earlier after a historic ratter that followed a really mediocre winter for most, considering it was technically a weak Nino. Some folks simply will not accept the objective data(reality), and insist that winters should be consistently "good" here based on anecdotal crap. I try to have fun with it though. At this juncture, it is silly to think anything is etched in stone. I actually enjoyed the previous 2 Nina winters more than the last 2 winters, which were warm neutral/ puny, impotent, weak Nino. I will roll the dice with a cold neutral or weak Nina. Odds are we get a few decent events, and end up near average. I'll take it.

You literally sound just like the dude you constantly "attempt" to troll. Stick to the weenie reactions. Much safer.