CAPE

Fwiw, latest ENSO update from CPC/NCEP still has equal chances of ENSO neutral or La Nina for fall and winter. My gut says weak Nina for the winter months, but that is above my pay grade.

I believe this winter will likely fall in the solar min period, or very close. What that means exactly as far as sensible weather, I think is highly debatable. Just because a solar min may have had some correlation to say, HL blocking in some past winters, does not mean that will be the case with the upcoming winter. Plenty of other factors to consider, with many being nebulous, not to mention these "relationships" can shift back and forth over time. Throw in climate change and, well, you get the picture. We just can't know.

Well that went down easy, and quick. Might have another.

Summer Crush NE DIPA. Its fruity!

The most reliable hint at this point is where the ENSO seems to be heading. LR climate models are all low skill, esp at this range. Goes without saying. That said, the CFS is on one of its "good" runs lately. Pretty decent overall h5 look for the winter months, and check out that monster west based -NAO for Feb, with a broad trough underneath.

Never made it to 80 here. Currently 77. Would be nice to get a soaking rain shower. The .06" from this morning was pretty useless lol.

Had a decent amount of rain here in June- I would have too look up the exact amount but it was right around 4". Most of it fell in the first couple weeks though, and it doesn't take long for it go dry this time of year.

Tuna with too much sauce on it lol. Very tasty though. Spicy tuna and avocado in the center.

Been jonesing for some sushi. Lunch.

Lower Dorchester County has been getting hammered pretty good with training cells.

That's going to be a challenge. My soil is silt and sand and drains very well. I have tried several tall fescue blends over the years and every one has struggled to thrive/survive once we get near the solstice, and the weeks beyond. I have many large trees surrounding my 'grass patch' so that greatly exacerbates the problem. My advice is to do what I did and minimize the grass area as much as possible- increase mulch areas, add raised beds, build a fire-pit with a large surround and add more plants. I still want to go total hardscape, but stone and rock isn't cheap.

Ha yeah. Its always a losing battle here. The objective is to not have to completely start over. I will shoot for saving half the grass in the back "yard".

Less than a tenth with the morning showers. Back in the usual mid summer rain rut, with the trees in full transpiration mode, starving the grass. Running the sprinkler is pretty futile this time of year as it is impossible to get a good soaking of the soil when its this dry. Over seeding/reseeding will commence in about a month.

Getting some light to moderate showers as the heavy stuff passes to the SW. Heard a few rumbles of thunder.

Meanwhile there is a well defined outflow boundary combining with a bay breeze showing up nicely on local radar moving westward from Delaware, and it cant even pop some drizzle.

GEFS has 0 to +2C temp anomalies over the next 10 days, and beyond. Basically normal for around here. Looks like plenty of 86-92 type stuff. Also looks generally dry. No surprise there. We always seem to go dry when the sun is strongest. My grass is already burning to hell in places.

Not seeing a significant signal on the means for a big SE ridge to develop and park. As long as the upper ridging generally stays to our west, we might be able to escape 100 degree heat. I am sure there will be a brief excursion or 2 regardless, at least for the UHI areas like DC.

It might help to inhibit lift, minimizing the cold rain.

In the woods, its kinda difficult to ideally place the weather station. I placed it in the ideal spot for accurate rain readings, so it isn't under the trees. Still a decent spot for temp readings, although it does get into direct sun for a time.

My house is directly in the woods. My station is a few feet off the ground behind the house. I like having a secondary sensor that is always in the shade- makes it easy to detect any errors due to sun soaking on the station sensor. Shielding/fan aspiration is the way to go to avoid high temp readings due to direct sun though.

Easton is almost always warmer than here. Greensboro and Goldsboro are literally a few farm fields apart lol. My station sensor has a shield, plus its only briefly in direct sun in mid/late morning. I have a secondary temp sensor on the north side of the house I use for reference.

Yes it was less humid today for sure. Locally there is no downsloping here though. He is a few miles NE of me, and its all flat and rural, and no direct bay breeze impacts. Just seems odd there would be a 5 degree difference without some sort of frontal boundary around, or a difference in cloud cover.

That seems high. 86 here currently. Your sensor in direct sun? Or maybe its the Goldsboro UHI.

Its warm out there, but a tad less humid than yesterday.

My grass sure is feeling the effects of transpiration from all the trees. Not lookin' too good.