CAPE

That may in fact be the long term trend, but there are always going to be variations, and other influences will likely mitigate that from time to time. At some point everything will align and the Pacific will be "favorable" again. That will probably happen 10 times before we see the next -NAO winter.

ENSO state is a major driver, so especially when it is clearly in a Nina or Nino phase(moderate to strong), there are established, reliable correlations that can be made about the general pattern. I cant see that suddenly "not working" anymore. Last winter the ENSO was warm neutral and the Pac SSTs were pretty warm everywhere. The winter before, the Nino was super weak and undefined, and there was little atmospheric response until very late. MJO can dominate under those conditions, and especially last winter we saw that, with the strong tropical convection persistently where we didn't want it.

Yeah that's what I am thinking. I started around August 15 last year and it came in fine. I have the starter fertilizer and I think I will cover the seeded areas with a layer of peat moss, and soak it.

lol Pretty much He parrots what other people say, but does it very very badly.

That must have been surreal. I saw the aftermath of an F3 a few miles from where I used to live in Carroll county years ago, and it was pretty shocking.

So my Black Beauty "Sunny" grass seed blend has arrived. The soil is nice and wet now. It is a tad early, but with the soil nice and workable over the next few days, should I start reseeding? Going to do it in small sections (places where the existing grass has gone to thatch). It takes 10-14 days to germinate anyway, and if it goes dry- as you all know- I have a sprinkler. I don't want it to burn up as its getting established, but the sun angle is getting lower by the day.

It constantly vacillates between pure crap and pretty decent, and everything in between. Pretty useless, like all of these LR climate models, at 3-4 month lead times. That being said, we pretty much know what the baseline is at this juncture for the winter months, so start from that. (expect total suckage as the default)

That is an impressive pressure wave.To say the least. Not going to speculate what the cause was.

Only when it looks like this

Perfect time to pull weeds. Even the dandelion carrot comes up like butter.

Morning coffee stout?

This is the perfect set up for a tornado in these parts. Doesn't happen often. Not gonna lie, I would love to chase and see one, but just not in my yard.

This PRE sucks. To hell with foreplay. lets get to the real action.

Rise Up Coffee Stout For breakfast here.

Just cracked open a Founders MarvelRoast- IMPERIAL GOLDEN ALE WITH COFFEE, COCOA NIBS, VANILLA AND MILK SUGAR Smells awesome, a tad sweet, and the vanilla and coffee are prominent. I like it. Not something I would drink a lot of. I really miss my DFH WWS.

That would probably increase the chances for rain.

I am headed there myself. I will be staying home tomorrow to witness the possible destruction.

lol i was thinking windows 98. pretty sure they use Linux tho.

Its always something lol. It seems to go down a lot. It was a hard drive failure of all things the other day.

FFS just replace the whole damn system.. DOX RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

0.32" here over the last 12 hours, most of which fell in the initial cell last evening.

Yeah I mentioned it in the other thread. Euro is always on the weenie side with winds, but still. Not a fan, being completely surrounded by large trees.

Perpetual thunder here all night. Lots of low rolling, and also some booming thunder,, but only a few brief heavy downpours.

Well that was quite a deluge. Huge raindrops. Very tropical like. A bit of a preview I suppose. 0.21" in less than 10 mins.

Instant downpour here with this tiny localized cell moving through. Some thunder too.