CAPE

Yeah I am surrounded by corn fields, and closer in- a bunch of trees. Also, my experience with capacitive based RH sensors is they are subject to drift over time, and tend to read higher until they saturate. I am pretty sure that is the sensor type that is used in most of these stations. I used to replace the RH sensor on our station at work every couple years. My station is pretty new though, so not thinking thats a problem.

91 here. I have been suspecting my DP has been reading a bit high... 70 right now. Not totally out of whack, but most other obs are in the mid 60s currently.

GFS has plenty of dews in the 50s next weekend. Some 40s even. We shall see about that.

No. We can make it to 70 tomorrow though, and maybe the mid 70s on Monday.

Most guidance seems to favor a cold neutral or a weak Nina at this point. NOAA did issue an official La Nina watch a few days back, with a 50-55% chance for fall and winter. Probably a decent baseline to start with when you start digging into the historical data and analogs. QBO looks like it may have hit its negative peak and is heading back towards neutral. If that trend continues into fall that's not a good sign. Pretty sure there is a correlation between a significantly negative QBO during the winter months, and colder temps for the eastern US during a weak Nina.

Sunday looks hot, but dew points should not be too bad. Monday clearly looks like the day that will feature the highest heat index values, with temps in the mid to upper 90s and dew points well into the 70s. HI values of 110 look likely.

Or were you referring to me drinking a DFH 120 min IPA?

Mesos look pathetic. Whatever weak ass front is in the area is washing out and likely wont trigger anything other that a few isolated garden variety storms, if that.

We are on the front edge of a legit heat wave, and you can feel it. Its really happening this time. 89/78 here. Wasn't expecting the dew points to be quite this high today. It's sultry out there. Its gonna get hot up in here. Cue Nelly.

Now is the time for optimism. We get to be all wide-eyed and dopey, trying to convince ourselves that winter really could bring the goods. These are good times. This period will last until about mid November, after which the writing will be on the wall, all hope will be lost, and all that will be left is the race to the Panic Room to get a luxury suite at the Reaper Resort before they are all taken.

We can get good outcomes in a Nina, even without a -NAO, which is generally not favored in a Nina winter. I would not expect a particularly snowy winter, but the 2 most recent Nina winters did produce some decent snow, relatively speaking, including big snow events for the coastal areas of the MA and NE. Nina winters can be especially frustrating for the MA, but not an automatic shutout by any means. If the timing had been a tad different, this could have been a more memorable period for a larger area.

Finally a few consecutive days of legit heat and humidity. A warning probably won't be hoisted for us tho. Definitely for N DE and Philly.

81/70 here This week is about as nice as it can be for mid July in this area. What heat wave?

Can we get some shady news on the Angelos fam?

Must have to do with Snyder if it's shady.

Sunday through Tuesday look like widespread mid 90s, esp for urban areas. One would think DC has a decent shot at 100 at least one of those days.

Sure is. Stiff east breeze here and 76. Got that sprinkler going too.

83 here. Some backdoor action this afternoon.

It isn't necessarily representative of the general area, but then that's not the point. I have had relatively few 90 degree days here, but plenty of mid to upper 80s, and some of those days were stifling because of high dew points. But yeah this summer has been very easy to take so far.

66 here this morning. Very nice out. With a surface ridge just east of NE, looks like a back door front pushes in this afternoon. Should keep the legit warm/humid air at bay until Friday, esp for eastern areas. This upcoming stretch looks to be on the uncomfortable side due to high dew points, more so than legit heat. Looks like there will be enough frontal action moving through with some rain chances to keep high temps generally closer to 90 than 95, at least initially. Next week the whole region gets torchy, as a legit Bermuda high sets up shop.

81 here currently after a high of 86. Very nice mid July day.

Looks like a slow moving front that may ultimately stall/dissipate somewhere in the area. Pretty good setup for several rounds of convection.

^I got partially ninja'd on that post.

After a high of 85 yesterday with low dews, looks like another nice day today. Not a 90 in my forecast until Saturday. Looks like the "big heat" will have to wait until next week. As of now, early next week looks pretty sultry- probably mid 90s for urban areas with dew points in the 70s.

We only care about the NAO during the winter, so this historical series gives you a good idea of the long term values. NAO has been predominately in the +phase during the winter months over the last 50 years, with generally more instances of strongly positive episodes in winter compared to prior periods. With the recent unfavorable trends in the Pacific patterns during winter, we might be phucked in the MA for awhile. Go north. None of this stuff matters much relative to cold and snow up in NH.