CAPE

A few areas of 'abnormally dry' have developed in the region. None in VA btw. This will likely become more expansive over the next week.

I had one last night. I am going to try to resist lol.

71 here too. Super nice. Sun just dipped enough below the trees that I could turn the sprinkler on lol. Really have to try to stay ahead this time of year with the high sun. Already seeing some crispy brown spots starting on the sunny side of the yard.

The latest ENSO update via NCEP/CPC diagnostic discussion appears they are beginning to lean more towards a Nina for the upcoming fall/winter. Not surprising given the current trends, but previous outlooks were favoring continuation of ENSO neutral.

Same here. Did half last night, now doing the other half.

61 here. Beautiful morning. Got the sprinkler going.

The FV3 upgrade was just about a year ago I think- so it has been the operational GFS for a year now. Seems it could benefit from a few tweaks.

Looks like 4 straight days with 70s/50s and partly to mostly sunny. Cant get much better than that in mid June.

Oh my this DFH 120 is going down fast.

Its terrible.

Meanwhile, the 12z CMC is dry right through next Saturday.

12z GFS brings some decent rains into our area after Wed. UL takes a bit more northerly track as it passes off the coast, with a nice vort pass through the region. Subject to much change ofc.

It may be delayed, but significant and prolonged heat is rarely denied in the MA. It will probably be brutal in August and September, just as we are all looking forward to Fall.

Latest model trends continue with the upper low dropping further south into the Carolinas. This is looking a lot like the set up of a few weeks ago when the rain stayed mostly to the southwest of the region until the UL finally lifted out. At this point it appears we may stay mostly dry through Tuesday, with the best chance of rain coming at the end of next week.

In a nutshell from WPC- still plenty of uncertainty and important details still yet to be resolved... Some guidance is still showing meaningful spread and variability but there is gradually increasing potential for a heavy rainfall event somewhere within an area extending from the central Appalachians through Mid-Atlantic to the eastern Carolinas. Typical guidance error for forecasts several days out in time--as well as difficulty in resolving important smaller-scale details that will determine where heavier rainfall bands as well as training/repeat activity set up--keep the confidence in specifics fairly low at this time. Localized maximum five-day totals of 5-10 inches may be possible depending on the exact path of the upper low. At the same time the clouds/rainfall will keep high temperatures around 5-12F below normal over portions of the East. Readings should drift closer to normal by next Wed-Thu.

Picked up 0.34" today. Not very impressive, but better than nothing. I knew running the sprinkler yesterday was the right move.

It has a similarly ridiculous looking precip max further south over eastern VA though. 20"+ lol Reality will probably be some chances for scattered showers/storms for a few days next week.

Just a tad wetter than its previous runs. At least for one run, it appears to have completely folded to the Euro idea at h5. Awful model.

Jailbreak does make a really good imperial stout. I forget the exact name. Dusk to Dawn maybe? There was another one of their stouts I had on tap a few years ago that was good too. Cant recall the name.

Yeah that choco milk stout was 5.5%. Those are never very high abv, but very good nonetheless. I am much more into the imperial stouts.

It was very good, but low abv, so generally not my thing lol. I had my DFH WWS yesterday though.

83 here currently with a nice breeze. Definitely on the humid side, but not terrible out. Sprinkler running, despite some decent rain in the forecast. Just in case. My yard is due to get screwed.

Mount Holly's take for early next week. Probably a good move to go with the Euro over the flip flopping GFS at this point lol.

Happy Happy-Hour! This is freaking delicious.

Gross. It is what we do best unfortunately.