CAPE

Online can be fantastic for self motivated college students, if it is set up and managed properly. Especially Masters students for certain degree programs. The success rate falls off dramatically when you get to HS aged kids. It is so dependent on the bandwidth of the available internet technology, the parents, and the self discipline of the student, which is generally lacking at that age. So many social distractions etc.. Just my opinion.

Last night was better for sure. Its raining. Bottom line for me. I had my severe experience a week and a half ago. Just got those trees cut up- stacked and waiting for better weather to split it. 0.45" here so far, and exactly an inch over the last 2 days. I'll take it.

Raining hard here. Only a few rumbles of thunder. Nothing like last night.

Obligatory shots across the farm fields..

Some nice redevelopment as that line approaches.

Looks like the city of Baltimore is getting some torrential rain.

That bowing segment looks pretty weak now. Have to see what happens as it crosses the bay. Maybe some cold pool/outflow redevelopment. Otherwise it looks like it could be pretty uneventful for this area. The Greensboro-Goldsboro split is underway!

It could evolve that way. I'm ok if it misses. Scored decently last night, and tomorrow looks promising.

Looks like the line is bowing out as it approaches Annapolis.

Its real, but not bad the past month.

I am at 4.5" for the month. Would be nice to make it to 5 tonight. As if it matters lol. More grass shriveling up to thatch by the day. Cant win in the woods. Need to get that sun angle down..

ha, still good rains up that way!

That line needs to fill in a bit for @nw baltimore wx

90/80 here. MUCAPE and SBCAPE values of 4k+ over the Delmarva per SPC meso analysis.

89/80

I drink it as it was intended- a digestif. Plus the cold brew coffee version is much better imo.

A few Jagerbombs?

0.56" from the storm last night. Had some impressive T&L.

Mount Holly AFD on the severe threat for Wed- Kind of a mixed bag in terms of environmental parameters. Temperatures will no doubt be on the hot side, but MLCAPE values are somewhat of a question mark due to uncertainty in how much mixing will occur. While MLCAPE will certainly be sufficient for convection, there is disagreement on whether values will be "good" or "great". If dew points mix down into the 60s, convection may struggle to develop or weaken as it approaches, as some of the CAMs suggest. However, if dew points remain in the 70s, instability will be greater. So mesoanalysis with regards to the dew points will be important. In terms of shear, deep layer flow will increase as the shortwave approaches. Bulk shear has trended down a bit, and may only be in the range of 25 to 30 kt, whereas yesterday 35 kt or slightly greater looked achievable. SRH parameters also do not look as impressive, with shear profiles looking increasingly unidirectional, not to mention the generally weak low level flow. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, it is a low risk, and the better chance for that will probably be to our north where SRH is better. Given warm low levels, modest mid-level lapse rates (around 6C/km), and likelihood for linear convective organization, severe hail is also a fairly low risk. So the main hazard is going to be damaging wind. Shear values, while not great, should be sufficient for some organized multicell convection, with some of the CAMs suggesting an MCS is possible. Difficult to pin down where exactly the greatest threat is, with still a fairly wide spread in CAM solutions, hence the continued broad-brushed slight risk area in the SWODY2. Would generally favor areas further west and south (E PA and Delmarva) for the greatest chance of severe weather since they should have the best instability and since diurnal timing looks most favorable there, but a risk exists everywhere.

How about I apply. I could use a career change. Sounds fun! You wouldn't mind, would you?

One topic I teach is flow measurement principles and methods.. there is a technique based on vortex shedding- the Karman Vortex street. Cool stuff, and a phenomena observed on all scales, atmosphere included. There is also a Coriolis Mass flow meter that is very commonly used in industry, and I get to go off on a tangent and explain how the principle of operation has nothing to do with the actual Coriolis effect lol. Easy to incorporate weather into my lessons.

It is for sure. I'm not sure I could teach high school lol.

It kinda went that way!

Engineering courses. I get to teach the fun stuff- industrial automation and networking. Our students all work on big ships- merchant marines and US Navy predominately- and a few other commercial customers from the maritime industry.

I just finished converting a course to online format. That may be the only one, as our courses have major lab components, and/or physical assessments. Students really need to be here to complete the courses we offer. We will see how this goes. Cant account for everything, and ofc there is human nature, and nature of this virus. It could always go badly, as it has in several places on a larger scale when people don't comply with the simple, painless, and proven methods for minimizing spread.