CAPE

I see your point here. The Pacific is the issue, and if energy is going to keep digging in out west and amplifying, probably the only way to somewhat mitigate that tendency is with a stout west-based block. Hopefully we see some improvement in the NPAC, as is being suggested on the extended GEFS, CFS weeklies, and EURO weeklies. Pop an EPO ridge and we have a path for cold to build in our source region.

12z GEFS is an improvement over 0z in the LR, suggesting the movement of the vortex toward the GOA might be transient, or the result of conflicting camps among the members.

Yeah we have seen these epic -NAO looks over and over on LR guidance in recent winters, and it rarely materializes in any meaningful way. Hopefully it works out this time. We had a transient -NAO in March of 2018 and scored, but the bomb cyclone happened with a favorable Pacific, and a +AO/NAO. Lets be patient and maybe the can doesn't get eternally kicked this time, but at some point I am going to root for a big ass EPO ridge, even if it means losing any NA blocking lol.

Yeah we don't have the cold, and that makes the location and strength of the +heights in the NA all the more critical. Maybe it gets there, as the LR means are suggesting, but for the next 7 to 10 days its displaced east/SE, and hasn't retrograded west yet. That can still work with favorable timing, if we can get something to not amplify so far west.

What blocking is being wasted? You mean the NA ridge that keeps popping where we want a 50-50 low? That blocking? That's useless, esp with the PAC behaving the way it is.

I read that too. There is really no way to know how things will reshuffle, and exactly where the daughter vortices end up. And this may not even be a SSW, just a warming event. There does seem to be a correlation between significant weakening of the SPV and -AO though. Not sure how well that works if the AO is already negative.

Yeah that's what I got from it. Mild in the east the first 2 weeks or so of Jan. He also seems to be leaning heavily on the GEFS, so we shall see. Curious to see what the EPS looks like today.

Was outside bringing some firewood in and a few flakes are flying. Nothing too impressive but at least I can say I have finally seen the first flakes lol.

The pattern is extremely active and amplified. The anticyclonic wave breaking in the EPAC is sending chunks of energy into the western US and as it amplifies, ridging builds downstream over the east. The NAO block is not really there yet- there is some NA ridging, but its not stable and mostly too far east over the next week or so. With all the moving parts it is possible for something to materialize- probably a trailing wave, as we have seen on some op runs, but otherwise we are probably...wait for it... 10 days away!

no mas

The calculated numbers aren't always indicative of the placement/timing/interplay of the key features, and the actual influence on sensible weather. That being said, it is possible that the pattern might need to be more "perfect" in order to get a favorable outcome than in the past, especially for places with borderline climo for snow. That is mostly speculation at this point though.

Having that expectation is always the smart call around here.

I looked at the individual members on the 0z GEFS for later in the run, and the east coast ridge "look" under the block depicted on the mean is largely a function of spread. There is a camp that has a pronounced trough out west, and some that may be amplifying a storm in the central US during that time frame. Another camp is not suggestive of higher h5 heights in the east at all. We just cant know yet. Patience.

Judah suggesting we might have good golfing weather in the east for the first part of Jan. @leesburg 04 Thaw!

Had a flash flood lol. Local ditches and streams running across the road in places, and lots of standing water. Water table is way above normal for this time of year.

I need to see some flakes fly. I will chase a damn snow squall later if necessary. Looks like locally places along the bay are favored. Bay enhancement can happen in these set ups.

Looks like 3.25" is the total. Forecast was for 1-2". Another over-performer.

I am sure the usual places have flooded here. Be interesting to see how fast they can recede/dry up before the real cold comes in. The farm fields will have plenty of frozen "ponds" by tomorrow morning.

What was your rain total?

That squall line is here now, and the temp is dropping fast. Went from 56 to 46 in minutes.

EURO Weeklies for around the same time.

Extended GEFS suggests its temporary. Keep in mind the latest run is from 0z yesterday.

As for the NYE/day "threat", EPS says nope(maybe one member suggestive of frozen). GEFS has 6 or 7, with a couple nice hits.

GEFS has been trending that way for a few runs now. EPS still looks ok, but we all know the PAC is precarious, and we also know a gigantic, perfectly placed, sustained west based -NAO is not likely to materialize and completely save us. We are going to have to navigate a pattern with warts in the coming weeks, and hopefully we get a few chances, just like always.

Still 56 here at 6am. Looks like that thin line of heavy rain right along the bay marks the front. Maybe I can add a little to the 3.20" of rain overnight. Oh joy.