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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Everyone loves the idea of a big blocking pattern, but then they don't want to be patient. It is a favorable pattern but often can be frustrating. There was a long wait for another winter storm after the December event in 2009. Imagine if that had missed. There would have been nothing until almost Feb. And that was a moderate Nino.
  2. CAPE
    Forecast high is 53 on Friday ahead of the front here. If there is any snow tv it would come Friday night ofc. How's that coastal looking for Sat?
  3. CAPE
    That was the one with the weird evolution- had 2 parts, with the second part being an upper air disturbance I think. Models all busted except for the ICON IIRC. It had DC and western burbs getting the goods while the rest had it further E/NE. I ended up with around 5" here but the forecast was for 10 or so. Didn't get a flake from the second piece.
  4. CAPE
    Yeah I was just looking at that. EPS does too. Some potential with the h5 look here, with a coastal storm implied on the mean, but would need some minor shifts in timing wrt the moisture/advancing cold/transfer verbatim.
  5. CAPE
    It really never becomes an issue on the means. With the weenie HL look being advertised, other than something very brief/weak, the SER will be suppressed.
  6. CAPE
    Temps are probably right about normal there, but colder thereafter. Nothing extreme, but better than it is now. If in fact it verifies lol.
  7. CAPE
    I am starting to think it is possible this advertised 'epic pattern' simply never produces, and then later in Feb, when we have a +NAO and everyone has given up, we pop a PNA ridge, all the stars align, and we thread the needle and jack a nice snowstorm lol. Could happen in a Nina.
  8. CAPE
    It was 22 this morning with heavy frost and ground fog. It will be 30 on Sat night, and maybe 28 Sunday night. More mixing though, so a different situation. Still, not much of a cold front.
  9. CAPE
    Yeah its garbage, but we have known that for awhile. The guidance incrementally backed off on the cold from several days ago, as it is prone to do. Hopefully this doesn't happen with the advertised upcoming cold.
  10. CAPE
    Yeah I think it was 34 here. Not sure what that has to do with the next few days though.
  11. CAPE
    The vorticity is still strung out/elongated, and so the divergent flow (PVA) is not very strong. Plus dry air is advecting in and the upper jet is off to the east. I mean, it could produce some rain/snow showers, and that's basically what the model is depicting. There isn't much chance of anything more than that unless something significantly changes.
  12. CAPE
    There is not a strong vort max/shortwave there. Its a broad vorticity lobe, and they generally don't induce anything notable at the surface.
  13. CAPE
    For Westminster- 46, 49, 48 the next 3 days, then 43 on Sat. Hopefully we see a legit cold front sometime in the next 10 days.
  14. CAPE
    I agree about great weather for outside. Happy to have an actual dry period here.
  15. CAPE
    Nah, 45-50 tomorrow and Thursday. Forecast high for Friday here is 54, and 46 on Sat. This front has no balls. We can do better in November.
  16. CAPE
    It wont be below freezing until Sat night. And barely. By then it will be dry. What a mid Jan cold front. Mid 50s on Friday and mid 40s Sat. Wicked shit.
  17. CAPE
    I keep trying to come up with a reason not to have a drink each time HH comes, but I cant seem to find one.
  18. CAPE
    abv is twelve fidy
  19. CAPE
    Time for a Ten FIDY
  20. CAPE
    Very selfish of you.
  21. CAPE
    Everything gets old. The well broke.
  22. CAPE
    He probably should be 5 posted for his own benefit, if for no other reason. Dude melting.
  23. CAPE
    Seems like it might be happening.
  24. CAPE
    He should post the AO/NAO/EPO/WPO off the latest GEFS. Would get a lot of likes.
  25. CAPE
    You aren't going to get much better than that in a Nina. GEFS has trended better in the EPO domain in recent runs. AO and NAO are more negative as well in the LR. HL teleconnections are pretty weenie going forward. Should be progressively colder over the next 10+ days.
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