CAPE

0z GEFS has 10 members that give the area "some" snow early next week. A few nice hits but most look weakish with light snow/snow showers. I will take any snow at this point. Approaching one and a half winters with bupkis.

I use h5 vorticity animations in my discussions of Reynolds number in flowing fluids. Turbulence is awesome. Laminar is boring.

A southern slider to New Englanders...and we all score. That would do the trick. Too bad it will never happen like that.

Wrong thread. But yeah that is now an impressive mid Jan cold front by today's standards. 45 before and 40 after with some showers.

Probably not this one if you believe the weeklies lol.

Based on the skill of those tools, I think I might go shopping for a snow blower.

Mid February.

It has become clear that I need to move to one of those places where a random fart makes it snow.

Its not a shutout look at all. With the advertised Pac ridge location/orientation and -PNA, the -NAO will keep the SE ridge suppressed. Lets hope the blocking sticks around for awhile. As for the NS dominance, that can be a real struggle at our latitude, but- with the west based block and a TPV lobe underneath, we might have a better chance of getting NS shortwaves to track further south than we might typically see. Hopefully one can track underneath and amp up a bit.

Ravens will probably cut RG3..

22 and frosty this morning.

Looking at the 0z GEFS, signals are still there for possible events for our region between the 17th and the 24th, but somewhat weaker than the previous "good" runs. The snowfall mean looks decent, but there are about 12 of the 30 members that have next to nothing for the DC area through the entire run. There are also fewer southern events compared to 0z and 6z runs of yesterday. EPS says we might wanna close the blinds.

Ninas usually manage to screw us one way or another. We do much better with the southward displaced jet of a Nino, but even that seems to be shifting lately.

I was a tad perplexed that on almost every planned option today, Lamar took it, and Dobbins ended up with so few carries. Most of Lamar's yards came from improvising on pass plays.

I think we are mostly just bored with the waiting, and having a little fun with it. At least I am. I still think we are in decent shape beyond the next week. Subject to change ofc.

"He will never beat Mahomes"

Its been relatively cold, which I enjoy even if it doesn't snow, given how warm/hot and humid it is for 5- 6 months of the year now. I would prefer it to be cold enough to actually snow though.

Incredible. Getting a model to show a few pixels of blue over us is more difficult than pushing out a hard turd when constipated.

That is it, plus a strong Pac jet, at least to this point. Yes we want a trough out there, but not a massive vortex sitting in the GoA. That is one way to get Pac air loaded into our source region. Problem is the base state in a Nina is not like it is in a Nino, so it is more difficult to keep a "moderate" vortex back towards the Aleutians. Upshot is we are always up against it on the PAC side in a Nina. Without maintaining a perfect balance, we end up being fire hosed either way. I think it is more hostile lately than in previous years. That is another topic for another thread.

It is pretty crazy how difficult it is to get a random snow shower or a light mix event anymore. That sort of thing used to happen even in pretty crappy patterns. Literally nothing last winter, and nothing so far this winter to this point for a large part of this sub forum. The worm needs to turn lol.

I will keep it really simple. No matter how "pretty" things look at h5, with the reds and the blues in the places we like- if sufficient cold isn't available, and it doesn't snow, it effing sucks. That is the simple reality, regardless of what historical analogs may suggest.

Yeah he has really stepped up his game during the winning streak. Great to see.

I said this last week- the Ravens finished the season with the largest point differential- better than the Packers, and the Chiefs- just as they did last year. That might not seem like a big deal, but historically teams that do that go deep into the playoffs, and often win it all. Didn't work out last year. I'm not sayin', just sayin'...

Weirdly, I think the Titans are the worst matchup for the Ravens. I know they have not done well against KC, but they haven't been as impressive the last half of the season, and Mahomes has been hit/sacked a lot.. They do always manage to win though.