CAPE

40% chance here, but I doubt it. I soaked the grass this morning, and will hit it again tomorrow am. The usual summer dry spell is here.

DFH 120s?

LOL @ very upsetting. Maybe that dude would be "less upset", if he looked at the current runs of the useless CFS, instead of the useless CanSIPS. Dec and Feb look particularly decent.

92 was the high here. 91 currently. DP was as high as 71 though. Most uncomfortable day of the summer so far.

90/69 A little juicier than I thought it would be today. Good preview for the upcoming week.

Hot.

Looks like this week will be noticeably different, with increasing humidity and low temps staying mostly in the 70s.

Currently 85 here, after a high of 87. Not bad out at all.

Tomorrow looks to be the hottest day of the summer so far, although with the upper ridge axis to our west and a NW flow, the dew points should stay in the moderate range so it wont feel too awful.

Fwiw, latest ENSO update from CPC/NCEP still has equal chances of ENSO neutral or La Nina for fall and winter. My gut says weak Nina for the winter months, but that is above my pay grade.

I believe this winter will likely fall in the solar min period, or very close. What that means exactly as far as sensible weather, I think is highly debatable. Just because a solar min may have had some correlation to say, HL blocking in some past winters, does not mean that will be the case with the upcoming winter. Plenty of other factors to consider, with many being nebulous, not to mention these "relationships" can shift back and forth over time. Throw in climate change and, well, you get the picture. We just can't know.

Well that went down easy, and quick. Might have another.

Summer Crush NE DIPA. Its fruity!

The most reliable hint at this point is where the ENSO seems to be heading. LR climate models are all low skill, esp at this range. Goes without saying. That said, the CFS is on one of its "good" runs lately. Pretty decent overall h5 look for the winter months, and check out that monster west based -NAO for Feb, with a broad trough underneath.

Never made it to 80 here. Currently 77. Would be nice to get a soaking rain shower. The .06" from this morning was pretty useless lol.

Had a decent amount of rain here in June- I would have too look up the exact amount but it was right around 4". Most of it fell in the first couple weeks though, and it doesn't take long for it go dry this time of year.

Tuna with too much sauce on it lol. Very tasty though. Spicy tuna and avocado in the center.

Been jonesing for some sushi. Lunch.

Lower Dorchester County has been getting hammered pretty good with training cells.

That's going to be a challenge. My soil is silt and sand and drains very well. I have tried several tall fescue blends over the years and every one has struggled to thrive/survive once we get near the solstice, and the weeks beyond. I have many large trees surrounding my 'grass patch' so that greatly exacerbates the problem. My advice is to do what I did and minimize the grass area as much as possible- increase mulch areas, add raised beds, build a fire-pit with a large surround and add more plants. I still want to go total hardscape, but stone and rock isn't cheap.

Ha yeah. Its always a losing battle here. The objective is to not have to completely start over. I will shoot for saving half the grass in the back "yard".

Less than a tenth with the morning showers. Back in the usual mid summer rain rut, with the trees in full transpiration mode, starving the grass. Running the sprinkler is pretty futile this time of year as it is impossible to get a good soaking of the soil when its this dry. Over seeding/reseeding will commence in about a month.

Getting some light to moderate showers as the heavy stuff passes to the SW. Heard a few rumbles of thunder.

Meanwhile there is a well defined outflow boundary combining with a bay breeze showing up nicely on local radar moving westward from Delaware, and it cant even pop some drizzle.

GEFS has 0 to +2C temp anomalies over the next 10 days, and beyond. Basically normal for around here. Looks like plenty of 86-92 type stuff. Also looks generally dry. No surprise there. We always seem to go dry when the sun is strongest. My grass is already burning to hell in places.