CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Long and hot is pretty much a given in this area every summer, to varying degrees. Hopefully it wont be bone dry as well.
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I believe May 8 was the last time measurable rain occurred here. Going on 10 days of dry, and not much of a chance this week either.
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That's his only response to any post. Its actually better that way.
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Beginning Friday, GEFS has highs in the 70s to low 80s straight through the end of the run, which is June 1.
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I am totally down with an E to NE flow all week, with temps in the 60s. Even though there are showers in the forecast here for every period, it clearly wont be raining most of the time, and there should be some sunny periods as well. I'll take this while I can get it. We have had some days in the 70s and low 80s too, and the inevitable heat and humidity bath is coming, and when it does, it wont be leaving anytime soon.
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Time to move this discussion to the drought thread.
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Yeah with the UL pretty far SW and that high nosing down, I would expect to see at least some sun here and there. Probably mostly cloudy, but not overcast the whole time.
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That thread should be locked lol. I put my predictions in early. General idea still looks good, but I would drop the amounts proportionally across the board.
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The end of the week may offer the better chance of significant rains for northeastern parts of the region, as the cutoff low gets picked up and moves towards the coast, closer to the thermal gradient. Could pop a surface low along the coast.
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Yeah SBY - OC MD up to SE NJ may get a few hours of decent rain. Its gonna be close though, as it appears that it will be turning more eastward as it moves north. Maybe I can get a random shower on the western fringe lol.
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Here is the picture at the surface-
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The tropical low is going to miss east, and high pressure from eastern Canada will have an opening to build southward down the east coast. With that, the upper low will dig and cutoff well west. The good rains will be in the mountains south and west of our region. SW burbs of DC have the best chance in the metro area of seeing some decent rain this week, while places further north and east, like my yard, its gonna be paltry.
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I called this one early. Not what I wanted, just kinda saw it coming Need some rain here.
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That High off the NE coast shifted the flow here to ENE, and it cooled down quickly last evening. 53 currently with some fog.
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66 here now. Awesome evening.
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Perfect weather for mojitos, esp with fresh mint!
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WPC QPF from earlier today, and then just updated, through D7.. Right idea, but the overall amounts may very well be too high for eastern parts of our region still. More adjustments likely with recent model trends.
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I have a few oaks I need taken down, and too close to the house to do it myself. Not dead, just too close and a pain in the ass, always dropping small branches and tree debris on the roof. I have a hydraulic log splitter, so I will have them taken down and cut to length, and left behind to split for firewood. Probably wait until Fall.
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Down to 80 here. The big difference is the drier air advecting in. Nice and breezy too. Quite a bit more comfortable now compared to around noontime.
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Its gotten nicer here this afternoon. 82 but the dew points have dropped- down to 55 now. I'll give it an 8.5/10 tho. Remember I am intrinsically a cold and bitter person.
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Pretty much the outcome I expected lol. I watered yesterday, and I will be probably watering again on Monday or Tuesday..
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As depicted its a closed upper low that is becoming cut off, possibly becoming nearly stationary. Those generally weaken as the low becomes stacked and more detached from the strong thermal boundaries, and the upper level divergence weakens. The longer it sits and spins SW of us, the lower the chance of seeing more than some bouts of showers on the NE side. But yes, still some uncertainty with multiple pieces of energy- one of (sub)tropical origin- and an expansive ridge up top.
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81, and a tad humid. I'm ready for a few days of cool and mostly cloudy, with some rain sprinkled in here and there.
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Not really my wish- I am always in for an interesting weather period, and I don't really mind wet and cool for a few days, given what lies just ahead. Starting around this time of year my soil dries out real quick if it doesn't rain for a week. But yeah I have seen the possibility for an "in between" scenario, and it seems to becoming more prevalent on guidance in some recent runs.
