CAPE

Go Steelers!

lol Read my latest post. Maybe that will help answer your question.

When we have high latitude blocking, northern Canada is going to be "relatively warm". The intrinsic state is lower heights in the HL regions, and the cold tends to stay there. We need that to be inverted to get persistent cold down here in the midlatitudes...BUT, the primary issue so far is the strong, sustained NE Pac vortex pumping warm Pac air into our nearby source region for cold. So the HL blocking is not really the issue(although the NA ridge has been positioned too far east so far)- rather there is simply a lack of cold air to drive far enough southward, and the baroclinic zone ends up further NW. That zone represents a thermal gradient, or zone of conflict, and is where low pressure will develop/track along the eastern side of a trough. Unfortunately that has been generally west of our area so far this early winter. It remains to be seen if that can shift further SE as we move forward. A combo of relaxation of the NE PAC trough (colder in the Yukon)and a continuation of the negative AO plus more of a west based -NAO would allow for some favorable outcomes as we head into our best snow climo period. So yeah, patience lol.

Ravens can help them seal the deal.

Thanks.

I wouldn't worry too much about the end of an op run. Recent GEFS runs have been consistently depicting a developing west based block beyond day 10, as has the EPS.

Who is "them"?

I am just having a bit of fun. I do most of my "productive" posts in the early AM. I am down with all of these general ideas and have been for awhile.

Some of us don't honk. We just state what the current guidance is depicting, add a little context, and speculate a bit. Ofc I am probably not a well respected poster, so no one really cares what I say.

High of 32. Kept a fire going all day. Heat pump didn't kick on once.

Man if you think people are panicking here...check out the NE subforum. Probably bad news for us when they are melting.

Where's Ji? I need to know if HH GFS is a disaster. Looks like we are going for the trifecta on the 9th.

I am still pretty optimistic. And i have seen 14 flakes. Yesterday. I counted them.

You haven't been here long enough to miss any of the posters who choose not to post here anymore, for whatever their reasons are. Or maybe you have..

Mersky? LOL

The persistent vortex parked in the vicinity of AK, with relatively warmer ocean temps, strong/further north Pac jet, prob makes enough of difference wrt to cold in our nearby source region compared to past years. The -AO is usually money here to deliver cold enough air for snow. Lets see how it plays out over the coming weeks with the advertised negative AO/NAO. Maybe going forward a -WPO/EPO will become more highly correlated to snow for the DC area than a -AO. Ofc we are also in a Nina, and some of the "struggles" we are seeing are inherent in the ENSO background state- which also may be shifting.

A guess maybe we need a thread for noob etiquette. Most know better than to barge in and assume we have all been just flailing around in here for years and years waiting to be educated by some wise ass.

He didn't bother reading anything. He is gonna tell us all how it is though!

Good luck making your 4th post a quality one.

I was serious. Might work. That's about 10 days into Jan, and not like it's a torch. We are probably stuck with modified Pac airmasses until further notice.

End of the GEFS run at h5. Funky look. Little better out west though.

Perfectly located Baffin Block at hour 342 on the GEFS. Here are the surface temp anomalies at that time. Might work lol.

The block retrogrades into the sweet spot beyond that timeframe on the EPS and GEFS. Only problem is there is no cold air anywhere close by lol.

I am sure there is something to it, but ofc in his world everything ties to the PV. All above my pay grade. Just looking at h5 though, the advertised mildness would appear to be more directly related to the big ass trough sitting near AK, in combination with the Pac jet.

Both are true to some extent. I was just effing around a bit with that post, although it is accurate..to some extent.