CAPE

Weak lift. Zero dynamics. Also I looked at HRRR sounding and it did have a warm layer around 850 mb, but it cooled as precip fell as modeled. There just isn't much precip though and it's light.

lol bad call Mt Holly! This morning`s update basically ramps up the potential for some light accumulating snow through the early morning hours. We switched the VCP over this morning from 32 to 31 to get a more sensitive look at the radar echos heading this way and we`re pretty confident that some of the clouds are now producing some light flurries to over portions of DelMarVa. With a more robust set of returns over the tidewater of Virginia, we have increased confidence in accumulating precip moving over DelMarVa and southern New Jersey. With the cold air aloft and no melting layer in sight on either KDIX or KDOX, this is expected to be pure sure. The HRRR has been all over this with the surface feature starting off as all snow before eventually transitioning to rain along the coast by mid day.

You got my point.

33 and rain lol. I need some evidence that its still meteorologically possible for a flake to fall here.

Although I did "promise" a white Xmas, the way its looking maybe the best chance (for some) is for the snowpack to survive the upcoming mild period, fog, and probably 1-2" of rain lol. Still a chance for a brief period of snow or snow showers behind the front, and maybe a coating. Flakes in the air is my bar.

loop d loop It cant handle the block.

Not worth posting. Its the default for late Dec- early Jan. Close to 3" out your way to just over an inch in my yard.

Be careful. I'm desperate.

Maybe I will see the first flake tomorrow morning. Not holding my breath with this weak ass pos lol.

Well this is nothing new. Been the norm since at least July lol.

Oh I see it, lol.

At this juncture, there are still a range of possibilities. The mean is the way to go as a general guide.

The mean is where its at, other than going all weenie over a cherry picked member or 2.

Lookin' good!

Gettin' Hot In Herre..

I know you are into music. Expand your horizons. Get some range, dude.

Another bust low. 34 is going to be the high again today. Forecast high was 40. That's a major bust. I guess all that snowpack just to our north, along with weak sun and mid/high level clouds is having an impact.

Yeah, so much for that Jan SSWE!

Much better look in the NA on the 12z Euro ens.

When the SPV is going all Nelly, we usually have our -AO.

I am starting to get some 2009-10 vibes wrt warming Strat and and Trop over the HL. Pretty close to a SPV split on the latest GEFS, and IIRC there was a strat warming event and a PV split in Dec 2009, which kicked off a severely -AO/NAO winter. Not in that territory, but looking pretty good going forward.

Yeah I like seeing that10 days out.

Good to see the latest GEFS runs building the NA ridging further NW closer to the classic position in the LR. I figured we would see that adjustment, with so many recent op runs depicting a perfectly placed monster of a west based -NAO. EPS still has the +heights focused a bit too far east but seems to be incrementally improving as well.

Was 21 here this morning, with no snow cover. Plenty of frost cover though.