CAPE

Mount Holly has hoisted a FFW for pretty much their whole forecast area.

They effed up by making a thread. We know a thing or 2 down here.

This is interesting, and the degree of interaction with that trough/energy is going to be a factor in the ultimate outcome. And lol even if my yard got 5" of rain from this, if it doesn't rain for a week after, that sprinkler will be getting another workout.

I concur. Seems the 2 main elements to watch are how rapidly the low gets its act together, and the interplay with the OV energy.

I think I would have to call it the "ICON camp", as it has been leading the charge with the offshore track/not much precip on west side idea.

12z 3k NAM and now the 12z Euro also have nice lollies down that way.

The Euro is having some continuity issues the past 3 runs. It cant figure out which camp it wants to be in.

I never was expecting to see much here from the coastal. Almost never works out with a trough so close to our west, outside of having some monstrous blocking Atlantic ridge. In the latest Model Diagnostic discussion (update) from WPC, the preference is basically to split the difference between the 12z and 0z Euro runs lol.

Yeah it seems they composed that AFD before looking at the 0z Euro. My gut says the immediate coast gets a glancing blow, but probably not much for our locations. The 12z runs will be telling, lol.

I skip the 90.

0z Euro tracks the low further east, with no appreciable precip anywhere in our region. Huge shift from its 12z run. ICON and RGEM are in that camp as well (ICON has been further east for several runs). The GFS and NAMs track the low slightly inland, with heavy rain as far west as I-95. CMC is sort of in the middle, and still has some decent rains for eastern areas. Quite a bit of discrepancy for this range. It will be interesting to monitor the development of the low today. The trough depth/timing is going to have a lot to say about the final outcome, but it seems many more times than not in these setups, the low tracks a bit too far east to have much impact.

ICON has the right idea.

It will track further east in the end and we all will be left high and dry, but with plenty of beer at hand, so all will be well.

I have had 2.50", and I need more lol. My grass needs constant rain for another couple weeks at least to keep it going. Super well drained soil plus lots of big trees robbing moisture and nutrients. Always a struggle. I am in much better shape than this time last year though.

Yeah that's what I noted on the 12z GFS run. The ridge over the Atlantic also looked a bit more robust/west.

Wasn't someone just saying the NAM shall lead the way lol? Euro looks pretty similar to the 12 km, although it NAMS my yard more than the NAM.

I have stepped away from the sprinkler..

Looks a little tighter with the low. Slightly stronger and defo gets the heavier precip further inland this run. Looks like a little more dig with the trough dropping in over the GL and the Atlantic ridge also flexed a bit on this run.

Considering you can probably shift this east 50-100 miles, not a bad idea.

The upcoming period looks active/interesting, with the tropical system, followed by a trough and possible stalled front, with yet another upper low in the vicinity early next week. Beyond that pretty much all guidance agrees on the idea of building impressive Atlantic ridging towards the end of next week. As advertised, it looks pretty brutal. Hopefully it wont become a fixture.

Hope all your numbers are good. I just did my annual blood work and have my (remote) appointment to go over the results tomorrow.

Cleared up early here. Even so, I was pleasantly surprised to get a localized cell pop over my area this afternoon. Efficient rain producer.

Its DC man, how can ya not take the over if its close? Daa heeeeat!

LOL Where you at? Davis WV? West Yellowstone?

18z 12km NAM