CAPE

Meanwhile, the 12z CMC is dry right through next Saturday.

12z GFS brings some decent rains into our area after Wed. UL takes a bit more northerly track as it passes off the coast, with a nice vort pass through the region. Subject to much change ofc.

It may be delayed, but significant and prolonged heat is rarely denied in the MA. It will probably be brutal in August and September, just as we are all looking forward to Fall.

Latest model trends continue with the upper low dropping further south into the Carolinas. This is looking a lot like the set up of a few weeks ago when the rain stayed mostly to the southwest of the region until the UL finally lifted out. At this point it appears we may stay mostly dry through Tuesday, with the best chance of rain coming at the end of next week.

In a nutshell from WPC- still plenty of uncertainty and important details still yet to be resolved... Some guidance is still showing meaningful spread and variability but there is gradually increasing potential for a heavy rainfall event somewhere within an area extending from the central Appalachians through Mid-Atlantic to the eastern Carolinas. Typical guidance error for forecasts several days out in time--as well as difficulty in resolving important smaller-scale details that will determine where heavier rainfall bands as well as training/repeat activity set up--keep the confidence in specifics fairly low at this time. Localized maximum five-day totals of 5-10 inches may be possible depending on the exact path of the upper low. At the same time the clouds/rainfall will keep high temperatures around 5-12F below normal over portions of the East. Readings should drift closer to normal by next Wed-Thu.

Picked up 0.34" today. Not very impressive, but better than nothing. I knew running the sprinkler yesterday was the right move.

It has a similarly ridiculous looking precip max further south over eastern VA though. 20"+ lol Reality will probably be some chances for scattered showers/storms for a few days next week.

Just a tad wetter than its previous runs. At least for one run, it appears to have completely folded to the Euro idea at h5. Awful model.

Jailbreak does make a really good imperial stout. I forget the exact name. Dusk to Dawn maybe? There was another one of their stouts I had on tap a few years ago that was good too. Cant recall the name.

Yeah that choco milk stout was 5.5%. Those are never very high abv, but very good nonetheless. I am much more into the imperial stouts.

It was very good, but low abv, so generally not my thing lol. I had my DFH WWS yesterday though.

83 here currently with a nice breeze. Definitely on the humid side, but not terrible out. Sprinkler running, despite some decent rain in the forecast. Just in case. My yard is due to get screwed.

Mount Holly's take for early next week. Probably a good move to go with the Euro over the flip flopping GFS at this point lol.

Happy Happy-Hour! This is freaking delicious.

Gross. It is what we do best unfortunately.

Still some major differences with how guidance handles the upper low for next week. Euro digs it much further south and west, towards the lower Ohio Valley, and it hangs around longer. Latest GFS runs have it further NE and more progressive. Euro looks to dump a bunch of rain SW of our region, mostly in the mountains.

Sultry.

Bring it. GGEM looks pretty wet for early next week as well. GFS, not so much.

Yeah very nice. Was 57 when I got up. Looks like it might push 90 here this afternoon.

Early next week looks a tad interesting with upper level energy dropping in and getting pinched off as ridging builds to the north. All 3 major globals have the same idea, and ofc the GFS drives it well south under crushing HP. @losetoa6 Latest EPS still have some members with biblical rains?

High of 80 here. 73 currently. Extremely nice evening. Mid to upper 80s the rest of the week but doesn't look too awfully humid. Some random storm chances too it appears.

Happy hour! Drinking a Jailbreak UDDER CHOCOLATE chocolate milk stout.

I was just thinking this after I mowed earlier. Lush green. I need to stay ahead of the game if I have any chance of my grass not frying in the next few weeks. Despite over 2.5" of rain over the past few days, I will run the sprinkler tomorrow. Insane how quickly the soil dries out this time of year here. Being in the woods with well drained soil makes it very hard to sustain the grass during the high sun angle period, esp if it's torching and dry.

Yeah I have been drinking the Double Digit Hazy IPAs, which are 10%. Really good juicy/hazy IPA, but sometimes you just have to have the holy grail of IPAs.

I need to pick up a few of those, along with their WWS. Been jonesing for some super high gravity stuff. Nothing quite like it.