CAPE

I am a bit of a drama queen. We are back in session here, running well below capacity. Not your typical school. The "kids" are at least early 20s. We have folks come here from all over. At least one dude here is from Texas, and a few from California. Quite a few staff and adjunct instructors here I know are high risk, should they get infected. The COVID policy is pretty solid, but there are things I don't like.

Just looking back at 2017-18, the QBO(u30) was moving into the negative phase in Fall and stayed significantly negative through the winter. That winter was decent wrt cold outbreaks/anomalous cold, at least for Dec and Jan. I think that was technically a moderate Nina, but the QBO influence on the tendency for cold that winter may have been real. The previous winter, also a Nina, QBO was moving into positive territory and stayed positive, and it was more the typical Nina eastern US torch. Again this is cherry picking one index in isolation, and so it is always difficult to determine the actual impact. The character of the Nina events were quite different between those 2 winters.

Probably not worth doing any reanalysis at this point, but maybe he included 'cold' neutral years as well as weak Ninas. The sensible impact of the QBO generally seems nebulous, unreliable, and likely gets overwhelmed by other factors in reality. Looking at the 30mb trends, it also appears to be moving in the "wrong" direction currently.

I don't think its the bay. Loss of daytime heating with not much going on frontal wise or upstairs to keep it going is more likely.

Still 85. Too bad that line of storms is heading south of here.

Looking at the means, seems we get a bit of a break from the "big heat" beginning late this week into the weekend, plus a potentially more stormy pattern? Impressive upper ridging develops over the mid west- which is suggestive of some notable changes here, at least for a few days.

When I looked at the op earlier it was pretty much the same as yesterday- most of the action later this week was south of our area, but maybe a tad further north.

Dew point is still high though. 78.

High here was 94. Forecast high was 98. Bit of a bust, considering today was supposed to be "worse" than yesterday. 91 currently.

Yes, I believe this is correct.

Plenty of those around here. They don't work too well in the woods though lol.

Here it is- From DT at WxRisk.. The context is QBO values from -10 to -20 for DJF.

77 at 530 am

^Pretty sure that's exactly the one I have.

Yes in general, but I am pretty sure I saw somewhere that during a weak Nina, a significantly negative QBO for the winter months mitigated the usual warm departures for the eastern US. I will see if I can find it. Either way, it doesn't look good wrt the QBO, as it appears it will be heading into positive territory going forward.

Any rain? Latest op runs looks pretty shiit in general for most of the region.

Sorry. It's busy.

And you made this post just before melting. We have enjoyed your contributions.

It was a "your back yard" special. It quickly disintegrated. Even in an epic heat wave with sinking air all over, you manage to score.

Down to 92 here now. Looks like 95 is the high. Tomorrow we go for 98.

Probably. It doesn't "shock" me at all walking out into it, thats for sure. Go mow the lawn or something and its a different story lol.

Not at all, when you look at the radar and see the outflow boundary that moved through from the cells that formed along the bay just to the east and SE. But dw, Tenman will make the call and have that sensor replaced, asap.

I guess not- Just hit 96 here. DP still 78. That's a 113 HI. Feels good walking outside into the sauna- for about a minute. As long as you aren't in the sun, and don't move, its actually fine.

One day I will move to the highlands. Hopefully soon.