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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Comparing the most recent couple GFS runs to say 0z/6z yesterday, it seems to be taking baby steps towards the Euro at h5. Less spacing/more interaction with the NA trough, and so not as much ridging out in front. A shortwave can't induce deep low pressure at the surface when it is too close to the upper convergence region of a downstream trough.
  2. CAPE
    It's the same or slightly better for the eastern third of the region. Not as good for places further south, and not as juiced up for the higher terrain of VA/WV. A more evenly distributed jackpot zone on the mean, but not as expansive.
  3. CAPE
  4. CAPE
    6z GEFS-
  5. CAPE
    Its pretty pathetic, and it may dwindle even more. This system doesn't have a lot going for it.
  6. CAPE
    Its a little better than that panel. WB WIll fail lol.
  7. CAPE
    I drank my 120 I was saving for the games tomorrow. Oh well, stouts will have to do.
  8. CAPE
    I will just say this- if this were a moderate Nino and the AO/NAO were the same, I bet we would have a better outcome. Ninas just find a way to suck here more times than not. There is no substitute for a suppressed, active STJ for us. Now this argument might not work up in NE as they normally do well in a Nina, but then they are always playing with fire more than we are when there is a HL blocking pattern.
  9. CAPE
    Yeah the mean still looks good. Not quite the monster it was a couple runs ago, but I don't think anyone expected that to continue. A tad more suppressed.
  10. CAPE
    That is what we are discussing here currently, right? It is also the model that has been the most amped, with a closer to the coast track. Big upside, but also warmer, esp at the beginning of the event. Its a fine line.
  11. CAPE
  12. CAPE
    H5 is weak sauce as it approaches the coast compared to 0z and 6z. Not gonna cut it with the thermals.
  13. CAPE
    Failure. I think this one was always destined for failure, no matter what. That is, if one was hoping for any significant snow. Me? If I can get an inch of frozen, its a mutherfuucking win.
  14. CAPE
    GFS still pretty gung ho keeping the primary low dominant and intact, and has a decent event in southern NY state lol. Pretty much on its own.
  15. CAPE
    Go with persistence. Mount Holly has favored this all along, but sort of caved to the models the last couple days. I never really bought into the more amped/warmer looks. But who am I to oppose the preponderance of model guidance lol. Problem is even suppressed/colder = weak pos, so no one wins.
  16. CAPE
    Finally a legit wintry day. Low 30s. some flurries, and windy. Time to get the woodstove going.
  17. CAPE
    If the current model trends continue, I am gonna guess this will be modified some.
  18. CAPE
    No. Suppression has to do with the blocking pattern, not ENSO state.
  19. CAPE
  20. CAPE
    I get it. Its odd. But I have accepted that it's just not very cold despite the favorable HL pattern. The reasons can be debated elsewhere I guess.
  21. CAPE
    I wont buy a solution like that unless its there 36 hours prior to game time. This deamplificaiton/suppression/shredding of decent looking shortwaves heading eastward has been persistent as hell since this blocking pattern has established.
  22. CAPE
    The trend for drier continues, esp the further north you go. The wave is moving into lots of dry air and high pressure, and looks to dampen. This is what i thought would be the most likely outcome a couple days ago, but the models trended the other way. Now trending back towards weak/de-amplified. This has been the case with nearly every wave attempting to move eastward in this current pattern.
  23. CAPE
    Actually I think its says -2.5. Ok I'll buy that.
  24. CAPE
    I was going to save this 120 for tomorrow...oh well. 18z NAM looks "icy" Still thinks my yard is going to max out on the little snow that falls lol. We know that cant be right.
  25. CAPE
    Its a messy disjointed system. 12z runs generally seem to bring the best band of waa precip in a bit stronger/ further south, as the leftover precip from the original low heads across PA and much of the area is left in between with just light stuff after the initial 'thump'. NAM, CMC, and Euro all imply maybe a couple inches of snow/sleet here even. GFS completely sucks.
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