CAPE

He is a good guy, but the reality is he cant hit(which is what he is paid to do) and never will again. If the Orioles have a prospect with promise, and who is ready, then cutting Davis is addition by subtraction. Lots of teams eat big contracts. Not the Orioles. This is why they are who they are.

First section seeded, fertilized, covered in a layer of peat moss, and watered. With the warm soil temps, it should not take too long to see how this turns out.

Yes it was posted a page back. Incredible though.

lol "possible in the future." "need 100 times more ensemble members". All to tell us what we already know. A legit -NAO during winter is now an urban myth.

I test it and condition as needed, Its right where it needs to be- slightly acidic.

Got it covered. Check out my post in the lawn/garden/pool thread.

Yes. This makes me happy. And today I have begun to prep for reseeding my burnt lawn. First batch of seed should go down tomorrow morning.

From Mount Holly AFD- Cold front slowly approaches during the week and will move into the region by Thursday. Models seem to indicate that the front will become nearly stationary over the area at the end of the week. If that happens, there could be a prolonged period of wet weather to close out the week as multiple rounds of convection would develop as a series of weak low pressure systems develop and ride along the front. With high dew points into the end of the week (generally low 70s), heavy rain should be a threat.

GFS looked pretty wet late week into next weekend.

The lowering sun angle is becoming more noticeable now. The mid day full sun area is shrinking, and more of the yard is shaded/filtered by trees longer.

Yeah I have been outside working too. Lost most of the clouds and the sun is beating down now. Time for a break. (maybe a beer)

80/71 here Not bad out as long as you aren't moving too much.

The process of reseeding/overseeding has begun. Soil is nice and workable after all the rain this week It dries quick here, so going to take advantage and get the first section done.

I am sure there will be plenty of west based -NAO at day 27.

It was tongue in cheek, thus the use of quotations. Generally not worth much, other than maybe providing an idea of the 'big picture' pattern going forward. That said, extending the range of the ensemble system, and making changes(spending money) to improve performance inside of 10 days are not mutually exclusive. This GEFS (v12) upgrade provides higher resolution, and increases the number of ensemble members to 31. There are other technical changes in the model physics. eta- the rationale for extending the forecast range and some of the 'in the weeds' changes to the model. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020EGUGA..22.6379F/abstract

The flood watch was put in effect because of the already saturated ground in many places. There was never going to be a widespread event over the last 2 days, and some areas did indeed receive excessive rain in a very short period. It does look mostly dry for the next few days at least. Mid to late next week could feature some storm chances.

Only a little over a quarter inch here. Just about 7" for the week.

Rapidly dying.

Yeah don't do that. It will likely be difficult enough to get decent snow where you are in the years to come. I will be looking to move west to higher elevations, or north. Going to need elevation and/or latitude for consistent snowfall.

It's basically the "useful" portion of the weeklies built into the ensemble run lol,

I am overdue for a miss, so expecting nothing tonight. I got a precursor to the predecessor, the predecessor itself, was in the max qpf zone for the storm itself, had a brief deluge later that night, then the MCS with the incredible lightning show yesterday morning, with the worst flooding all week. A total of 6.7" since Monday night. Reseeding begins tomorrow.

I picked up a 4 pack of barrel aged Narwhal stout today too. Super good stuff.

Yup its 18%. And lol you need to do the "in moderation" thing. This is probably all I will drink tonight. Bang for the buck. One beer, but like drinking three 6% 'ers.

Thats where the best forcing is- along the weak front that lies across that area. Should sink SE, and some other cells may pop up out ahead of it this evening. Not sure how widespread it will be. Looks more scattered to isolated.

Happy Friday HH. I'm going big, boozy, fruity. DFH Fruitfull Fort. This stuff is so good and complex. Has elements of both the WWS, and the 120, as strange as that might seem.