CAPE

So much for getting out in the yard today lol. Pesky showers keep hanging on here. 0.82"

The PDO seems to be heading back to a predominately negative phase, and it might stay that way for a while. I never know what to think of it anyway, as it is clearly a response to multiple influences, and not an atmospheric driver itself. Most of the patterns/temp/precip anomalies that the PDO is associated with, have a stronger correlation to the ENSO state itself. So I suppose it is an enhancer/moderator in certain cases. We have had a recent tendency for a massive ridge in the EPAC/suppression of the Aleutian low, and combined with SST anomaly persistence, seems to argue for negative phase. The ENSO has an impact on the elements that drive the PDO (like the Aleutian low). Looking at the distribution of SSTs associated with the -/+ PDO phases, it seems logical that the cool phase should be generally favored in a Nina, and vise versa, esp during stronger ENSO events. Ofc it doesn't always work out this way.

0.73" here. Looks to be winding down now. Nice drink for the new grass.

Not that the weather will actually feel like fall, but this week will get us thinking about it. Low to mid 80s for highs, and coolish at night. Headed down the homestretch of summer- even though September in these parts usually features plenty of summer weather. Hopefully it is more seasonable than July-like.

If the HRRR is correct, I will be outside working in the yard by noon. Radar seems to indicate that as well.

A week later it looks like this. I am working generally right to left. That area of clover in front of the fire pit I am going to leave until later, then I will mow it super low.chop up the soil and loosen it with a shovel, seed it, and let the remnant clover contribute to feeding. I am working on the back side of the fire pit area now, then I will go left(out of the photo) and come forward, and hit that larger clover area last. Its keeping some green there for now lol.

0.68" so far. Back to just some light rain for now.

They have been up for a few days lol. I was amazed. Noticed them Thursday evening, 5 days after seeding. Did another section yesterday.

Moderate to occasionally heavy rain falling here now.

Short season.. expanded playoffs. Never know. On the other end of the spectrum, the Red Sox have buried themselves.

Not too impressive here overnight. 0.22"

Maybe after a few 120s and some weed.

Models are still a bit all over the place with this storm. WPC likes a general 1-3 inches from NW to SE across our region. Seems reasonable given the overall synoptic set up. Even @losetoa6 will likely see a half to one inch of rain.

Jeez stop engaging in the weather channel's absurd winter storm naming crap.

I believe we are in general agreement.

This looks like crap, Chuck.

It's like the claims that OFC audio cable "sounds" better. Looking at the pure physics of it, there is an argument that can be made that there is some slight difference in cable performance, but certainly not at audio frequencies, and so completely imperceptible by any human being.

So how much lightning we talkin about to make my grass greener? How many MJ/m, and at what frequency would it need to occur? Like I said, there is some truth to it, but it has no quantifiable impact on my lawn, which is what that hack of a met claimed. It's cow farts.

Offer still stands. I don't think I will be needing it for a while.

This is one of those deals with there is probably some element of "truth" to the claim, but there is no measurable evidence to arrive at that conclusion. So yeah, its yet another myth.

There is going to be a bit of a battle with that High anchored over SE Canada I think. Probably why the low (and area of best lift) will be on the compact side the further east it tracks. Decent PWATs get into the S and E part of the region.

1.10" over the last 2 days, and 7.93" for the month. Looks like some decent rain for tonight into tomorrow. Probably an inch or so. Going to take advantage of the weather today and get another section of the lawn over-seeded and fertilized.

Yeah that spoke on the west side rotates inland right around my area and then really comes together as a larger area of lift as it moves sw. Probably interacting with the stalled front and maybe a localized boundary/bay breeze. You will probably end up with 2+.

You know this is from a newly formed TS? That low that was off the coast of NC is now Kyle.

0.60" in the last 30 mins.