CAPE

84/77 here. It actually felt nice when I went out at 530ish to turn on the sprinkler. Expected to get smacked in the face when I opened the door, but it was ok. Probably will be quite different tomorrow morning.

Yeah there seems to be a lack of agreement on the location/progress of the front, and where it ultimately washes out or stalls. The latest Euro run seems to move it through and stall it to our south later in the week. It has decent rains down in central and eastern VA, and also along the coast of MD and southern DE.

Outside of the higher terrain well to the west, and immediate coastal areas, the Euro has very little rain for N VA, MD. S PA, DE through next Saturday. Brutally hot and no rain. If that verifies it is gonna be really crispy around here.

And to the east//NE Mount Holly has excessive heat warnings in effect. lol. I suppose there will be some discussion/collaboration this evening, and the disparity will be rectified.

High temp was 92 here. Currently 89.

From Mount Holly AFD on rain potential mid week- Wednesday-Thursday... Most signs point to this being the most unsettled stretch of the extended period. Guidance is in good agreement that the stalled front will lift back north into the region for midweek. This will bring humid air surging back into any areas that dried out on Tuesday. Cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary should keep a lid on temperatures for these days, but highs still look to approach 90 each day, which combined with the humidity will yield heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100. The bigger story for this period will probably end up being convection. Multiple convectively enhanced shortwaves will propagate along the stalled frontal boundary Wednesday and Thursday and serve as triggers for what could be multiple rounds of convection. Both low level and deep layer flow are modest, so am not overly concerned about severe weather outside of the usual gusty wind potential in stronger storm cores. However, setups like this often produce at least locally heavy rainfall, and suspect hydro will be an issue on one or both of these days. PWATs climb to near 2" on Wednesday and may be even higher Thursday at least to the south. This combined with very deep warm cloud layers argues for efficient rainfall production, and wind profiles are supportive of potential for training storms.

I am at 3.9", but it all fell between the 6th and the 12th. Was bone dry the 2 weeks prior, and the last 5+ days. Amazing how dry the soil is already, outside of where I have watered the past few days.

Despite nearly 4" of rain last week, I am back to watering lol. Doesn't take long to go dry this time of year. Looks like some chances for scattered stuff Tues- Thurs, and maybe something more widespread heading into next weekend, but thats just looking at the GFS. eta- 12km NAM has some convection late Mon into early Tues. Looks like some upper level perturbations moving west to east in the flow aid in initiating it. Looks scattered though.

Yeah I am surrounded by corn fields, and closer in- a bunch of trees. Also, my experience with capacitive based RH sensors is they are subject to drift over time, and tend to read higher until they saturate. I am pretty sure that is the sensor type that is used in most of these stations. I used to replace the RH sensor on our station at work every couple years. My station is pretty new though, so not thinking thats a problem.

91 here. I have been suspecting my DP has been reading a bit high... 70 right now. Not totally out of whack, but most other obs are in the mid 60s currently.

GFS has plenty of dews in the 50s next weekend. Some 40s even. We shall see about that.

No. We can make it to 70 tomorrow though, and maybe the mid 70s on Monday.

Most guidance seems to favor a cold neutral or a weak Nina at this point. NOAA did issue an official La Nina watch a few days back, with a 50-55% chance for fall and winter. Probably a decent baseline to start with when you start digging into the historical data and analogs. QBO looks like it may have hit its negative peak and is heading back towards neutral. If that trend continues into fall that's not a good sign. Pretty sure there is a correlation between a significantly negative QBO during the winter months, and colder temps for the eastern US during a weak Nina.

Sunday looks hot, but dew points should not be too bad. Monday clearly looks like the day that will feature the highest heat index values, with temps in the mid to upper 90s and dew points well into the 70s. HI values of 110 look likely.

Or were you referring to me drinking a DFH 120 min IPA?

Mesos look pathetic. Whatever weak ass front is in the area is washing out and likely wont trigger anything other that a few isolated garden variety storms, if that.

We are on the front edge of a legit heat wave, and you can feel it. Its really happening this time. 89/78 here. Wasn't expecting the dew points to be quite this high today. It's sultry out there. Its gonna get hot up in here. Cue Nelly.

Now is the time for optimism. We get to be all wide-eyed and dopey, trying to convince ourselves that winter really could bring the goods. These are good times. This period will last until about mid November, after which the writing will be on the wall, all hope will be lost, and all that will be left is the race to the Panic Room to get a luxury suite at the Reaper Resort before they are all taken.

We can get good outcomes in a Nina, even without a -NAO, which is generally not favored in a Nina winter. I would not expect a particularly snowy winter, but the 2 most recent Nina winters did produce some decent snow, relatively speaking, including big snow events for the coastal areas of the MA and NE. Nina winters can be especially frustrating for the MA, but not an automatic shutout by any means. If the timing had been a tad different, this could have been a more memorable period for a larger area.

Finally a few consecutive days of legit heat and humidity. A warning probably won't be hoisted for us tho. Definitely for N DE and Philly.

81/70 here This week is about as nice as it can be for mid July in this area. What heat wave?

Can we get some shady news on the Angelos fam?

Must have to do with Snyder if it's shady.

Sunday through Tuesday look like widespread mid 90s, esp for urban areas. One would think DC has a decent shot at 100 at least one of those days.

Sure is. Stiff east breeze here and 76. Got that sprinkler going too.