CAPE

GFS loves doing loop d loops in the LR when there is blocking. Good sign imo.

yep.

Better evolution for the 28th.

Its actually a good run. Details...heh. Xmas miracle back on.

LOL it skips over us. Totally believable.

Coastal plain screw job

He is entitled to his opinion, like anyone else. Given his reputation, it should be informed, and made with proper context though. Yeah that's reasonable, but If he actually said better than 2009-10 as has been suggested... Hype!!

I don't engage in that stuff. Just wanted them to beat the damn Dolphins to help out the Ravens lol.

Well then he is just another hypester, or a complete idiot(as he loves to call people).

I just looked it up- it was 1985. The only other team to miss the playoffs with an 11-5 record was the 2008 Patriots.

I am not a DT fan, but I doubt that's exactly what he said. Without checking(because I really don't care enough to) I am guessing he was only considering Nina winters.

LOL the Ravens may very well finish 11-5, and miss the playoffs. That happened to the Broncos years ago, the same season the Browns won their division with an 8-8 record. The team formerly known as the Redskins were 10-6 that year, and also missed the playoffs. And no I didn't even have to google that. I don't remember the exact year though, but it was in the late 80s I believe.

Goddamn Patriots. The one time I want you to win..

How often do we see a perfect pattern? And when we do, how often does it actually produce? Asking for a friend.

The WTFs probably have a better chance of making the playoffs, as fuccked up as that sounds.

Relaxing, watching the Ravens, and drinking a highly spiked(low viscosity) eggnog.

lol no worries.

Yes there was a -NAO numerically. It wasn't a block though. Seeing red at h5 up over GL does not equal a block. 50-50 lows don't go racing into the NA unimpeded if there is a block. A block, as you said, will slow down/trap a 50/50 underneath. We did not have that for this past storm, and I was just using it as an example. I was AGREEING with the key point of your initial post. Remember?

I don't wanna hijack the thread, but I am saying that if there been a block leading in, and with better confluence/ more of a suppressive mechanism, the evolution would probably have been different enough that the surface low/850 low tracks would have been further SE, and the temp profile colder, thus a better outcome for places further south and east. Nothing to do with HECS, just in general, underscoring the importance of a -NAO/ 50-50 combo, making the timing less critical. Ofc there are other aspects(upstream) that had it played out a little differently, could have also led to a better outcome.

Cutter at 240. Ji in 3..2..1..

Lots of potential with the general idea. GFS op continues to flash the west based -NAO.

I assume he is only comparing the advertised h5 looks to past Ninas, but idk because I couldn't care less what he thinks lol.

Good post. I pointed this out with the last storm. The lack of a block and the resulting transient 50-50 low was one fundamental problem, esp for eastern areas. The confluence was on the move and displaced too far NE. eta: the -AO provides the mechanism to displace cold into the midlatitudes. Ofc we typically see a -NAO when the AO is persistently negative.

Ravens need to put a beat down on an inferior opponent today. No sputtering and dumb penalties. If they are serious about making the playoffs, take care of business. Good game to discover a pass rush.

This is definitely not the ideal place for the +height anomalies to be focused. It is workable though, as long as the Pacific is serviceable, and that is going to be variable. As is typically the case, timing and luck will be required. Also just because the means show the NA ridge generally further east than ideal, that doesn't mean it wont reside further NW at times. So again, timing.