CAPE
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This has been my thinking. The UL will do most of the "damage", and it will be an area of heavy rain mainly west of the metros. Most of the good rains end by Tuesday evening. Then as the low weakens and meanders, keeps things mostly cloudy and cool-ish with scattered showers mid to late week. The subtropical low has little impact, other than producing sinking air for eastern areas until it gets shunted further east.
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NAM has been looking that way too. Subsidence FTL (or win) depending on your perspective. Here is an indication of which way I have been leaning with expectations- I watered my grass last evening/this morning.
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Still plenty of uncertainty with the low interactions and the big upper ridge to the north.
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Not the best time of the year to plant grass seed, but good luck. And you know this will not be a week of wet weather. Probably the best chance of significant rain (some place in the region) is Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond that it will probably be mostly cloudy and cool, with some showers around, if that upper low meanders for a few days.
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Tracks the Atlantic low straight up the coast.
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lol 6z GFS.
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I made chicken tikka masala in a slow cooker a while back and it turned out delicious and smelled awesome.
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Yeah I have to be in the mood for those. I always liked the Flying Dog "The Fear" Imperial Pumpkin ale. About 9% abv.
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Yeah the pumpkin is decent. I am not a big fan of those type beers overall. Hard to do well. RAR has a great one, but you have to find it on tap. Its called Big Lizz. Brewed with locally grown butternut squash. Cult Classic has a very good oatmeal stout and a high gravity dark ale that is very stout like. I love their IPAs, esp the fruity/hazy one. I forget what they call it.
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Yeah I was concerned if they would be able to survive. Relatively new brewery but they have a great product. I was a regular. Hopefully they can make it.
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Looks good. Good to see Cult Classic is doing ok. I miss going there and having a flight. They literally just got their kitchen going when the covid shit started.
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I think it probably works out better(for a more widespread rain event) if the subtropical low gets out of the way. A phase seems like a low probability, but if it hangs closer to the coast near our latitude there may be an area of subsidence on the northern/western side.
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85/65 I'll take a replay of the previous few days, thanks.
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Speaking of warm and humid, I could have waited another month for a day like today.
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Not weather related for me. I drink in the AC, not outside in the stifling heat and humidity of summer. That's what water is for.
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Enjoy mid June today. Tomorrow should be ok for the most part, but there will be a chance of some scattered showers. Still around 80.
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Cult Classic is great. Love their hazy IPA.Their pumpkin ale is quite good. More on the subtle side. Looks like you got a full day in.
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I did! Awesome place isn't it? Nice photo.
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He reemerged lol.
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The Atlantic low looks to escape eastward, but it could inhibit lift on the western side. One possible reason guidance may have the best rains further inland currently, in addition to the 2 shortwaves potentially congealing to the west/sw of our region in the mountains. For now it's something interesting to monitor. If I had to make a call now, I would say the best chance for heavier rain would be in the mountains w/sw of here, with some showery periods further to the east.
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These convoluted setups always look "impressive" on guidance at this time frame. A subtropical low and at least 2 other disturbances interacting in some way, in an overall larger scale trough. Probably will be some showers here and there from Sunday through Wed, but nothing even close to a washout for any particular period.
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Haven't seen Mersky around lately.
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Yeah y'all on the mainland stay put. Don't be rushing over here bringing your diseases.
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I could use some rain in my yard. With all the trees now active, higher sun, and plenty of wind lately, my soil has gotten a tad dry. Grass can start to struggle pretty quickly here heading into summer. Hate to have to start watering already.
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My understanding of solar min/max and the correlation to NAO is that it shifts. I read a paper back in winter and IIRC in the last 50 years or so a -NAO is correlated with higher solar activity. Of course you also have to look at other factors, specifically ENSO state, as it also influences the the NAM/NAO phases. There are a lot of complex interactions so this stuff ends up being pretty speculative, and who knows to what degree any established relationships are influenced by a changing climate.
