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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    This is still an evolving situation. It will trend back south/flatter/quicker transfer. If not, what PSU said, and I will just accept that it cant snow on the coastal plain anymore lol.
  2. CAPE
    12z runs will be telling.
  3. CAPE
    Use incognito mode and paste the link. Usually gets past the paywall.
  4. CAPE
    Not sure if anyone posted this, but here is a link to the CWG article from yesterday on the possible impacts from the perler vertex disruption. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/19/polar-vortex-winter-snow/
  5. CAPE
    Looking ahead, not a bad look here. Decent injection of cold into our source region between the WPO-ish ridge and the TPV. Enough of a trough near AK keeping the sprawling Pac ridge in check, neutral PNA, and still a decent NAO look, although displaced southwestward.. W US trough progressing eastward.
  6. CAPE
    6z GEFS mean implies a damping wave with weaker surface reflection as it moves east, compared to 0z. Pretty much supports the look on the op.
  7. CAPE
    28 when I went to bed. 37 when I got up. Wind picking up now with a rain/snow mix and temp down to 35. I doubt this will be very impressive lol.
  8. CAPE
    GFS made a huge step. It is now depicting the most realistic failure path lol.
  9. CAPE
    Good. Now stop posting this crap.
  10. CAPE
    I think it's gonna snow next week. Maybe just once though. How awful.
  11. CAPE
    mild on mild? wind on wind? rain on rain is intrinsic and goes without saying.
  12. CAPE
    I am sure there will be a snow squall a few miles E, W, N or S of my yard.
  13. CAPE
    This would be the best event here in almost 2 years.
  14. CAPE
  15. CAPE
  16. CAPE
    lol Yeah i think we all know this, well, other than Ji.
  17. CAPE
    Pretty unusual for PSU and I to both get fringed. I am gonna guess this wont be awfully close to the actual outcome.
  18. CAPE
  19. CAPE
    I know where my money is. Look at the last 4 GFS runs for the 26th.
  20. CAPE
    It tends to find ways to snow in February, as long as the pattern isn't hostile, and esp if we can keep the west based block for much of the time.
  21. CAPE
    I could certainly envision a few cold air excursions for our area with that look. The big picture mean is just that, esp on an extended range forecast tool.
  22. CAPE
    Fwiw the new edition of the Euro weeklies aren't terrible for Feb. The -NAO is there throughout, with a pretty typical Nina look out west. I will post one panel as a sample. Other periods hint at a bit more ridging in the east, but not what I would consider a strong signal or a 'torch'. I have definitely seen worse.
  23. CAPE
    Just opened a GI BCBS. sorry @mattie g
  24. CAPE
    EPS has been decently bullish for several runs now. GEPS has looked pretty good too.
  25. CAPE
    I agree. I haven't done more than glance at the op runs until today- waste of time imo esp in this pattern and in the day 8-10 range- but poring over the ens runs, I have never felt like a cutter was very likely to be the way we might fail next week.
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