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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    0z EPS looks essentially the same as previous runs. Still implies a front end thump, but thermals are a tad better than 18z. Snowfall map is almost identical to 12z, ofc there is no way anyone is seeing all snow with that track and the lack of real deal cold in front.
  2. CAPE
    I just know its going to rain here when it precipitates until proven otherwise, so I don't stress at all over model runs.
  3. CAPE
    I thought today was an extremely good day.
  4. CAPE
    Its been complete garbage for anywhere on the east coast for at least the last 3 runs. If it ends up right, I would be a tad surprised, but not shocked.
  5. CAPE
  6. CAPE
    This is either a step in the path to a worse outcome, or it trends back the other way imo. I am leaning towards the latter based on the overall pattern and the tendencies over the last couple weeks.
  7. CAPE
    Storm after the storm?
  8. CAPE
    There is no way it stays snow over here for long with the primary taking that track, despite what some of the silly ass surface/snow maps are depicting.
  9. CAPE
    This is still an evolving situation. It will trend back south/flatter/quicker transfer. If not, what PSU said, and I will just accept that it cant snow on the coastal plain anymore lol.
  10. CAPE
    12z runs will be telling.
  11. CAPE
    Use incognito mode and paste the link. Usually gets past the paywall.
  12. CAPE
    Not sure if anyone posted this, but here is a link to the CWG article from yesterday on the possible impacts from the perler vertex disruption. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/19/polar-vortex-winter-snow/
  13. CAPE
    Looking ahead, not a bad look here. Decent injection of cold into our source region between the WPO-ish ridge and the TPV. Enough of a trough near AK keeping the sprawling Pac ridge in check, neutral PNA, and still a decent NAO look, although displaced southwestward.. W US trough progressing eastward.
  14. CAPE
    6z GEFS mean implies a damping wave with weaker surface reflection as it moves east, compared to 0z. Pretty much supports the look on the op.
  15. CAPE
    28 when I went to bed. 37 when I got up. Wind picking up now with a rain/snow mix and temp down to 35. I doubt this will be very impressive lol.
  16. CAPE
    GFS made a huge step. It is now depicting the most realistic failure path lol.
  17. CAPE
    Good. Now stop posting this crap.
  18. CAPE
    I think it's gonna snow next week. Maybe just once though. How awful.
  19. CAPE
    mild on mild? wind on wind? rain on rain is intrinsic and goes without saying.
  20. CAPE
    I am sure there will be a snow squall a few miles E, W, N or S of my yard.
  21. CAPE
    This would be the best event here in almost 2 years.
  22. CAPE
  23. CAPE
  24. CAPE
    lol Yeah i think we all know this, well, other than Ji.
  25. CAPE
    Pretty unusual for PSU and I to both get fringed. I am gonna guess this wont be awfully close to the actual outcome.
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