CAPE

Speaking of the front, it looks to become stationary just to our south. We may be entering into a pretty wet period. Mount Holly's take- Big changes come on Sunday. The stationary front south of the region lifts north as a warm front. Meanwhile, H5 trough passes through the Great Lakes and passes through the Ohio Valley before lifting north into the Northeast and eastern Canada. Surface low pressure develops around the Mason-Dixon line and lifts to the northeast Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain are possible, as surface dew points climb back into the 70s. After the surface low departs, the cold front passes through Sunday night, and once again becomes nearly stationary over the Mid- Atlantic.

Yeah the air mass is going to really juice up with the SE flow between the Atlantic ridge and that trough off the SE coast- PW nearing 2". There is some mid/upper level support, including a strong jet, but its not clear where any area(s) of low level convergence may set up, and thus where the heaviest rain will be. Seems like S MD and up along the lower bay has the highest probability for our region today, but the mesos generally keep much of the activity down in eastern VA and offshore. That seems to make sense given the location of the trough. Tomorrow looks like the better day across guidance for more widespread heavy rain in our area with the front moving into the juicy air mass in place.

Marginal risk of excessive rain for the area over the next couple days.

Not bad for early September. Seeing the snow clinging to fully leafed trees is an interesting sight. Its pretty, yet can be so damaging.

Looking pretty good in Boulder-

This We thought we had become NNE lol. My yard did "okay". At least had low end warning criteria snow(5"), and lots of blowing and drifting in the days that followed. Places just east of here by 10 miles had double that amount though. I really wasn't mad at all, given the previous winter results, and knowing I was about 30 miles from getting nothing.

With that upper low dug in so far west, it would seem the best lift would be in the mountains west/sw of Denver. That said, the window of opportunity for the eastern foothills and Denver proper has always been late afternoon into tonight. Still looks like a burst of snow on the mesos- probably 2-4". Radar seems to be supportive of that idea.

It was a really good storm for a large area. Too much sleet at the height along/east of I-95 though. Made up for it with the great CCB snows on the backside.

Wrong storm. There were 2 being discussed. I was referring to December 2010.

The end result is it was a typical Nina screw job for most of the MA. East of the bay there was some snow(5" here) but not the foot that was supposed to fall. It was close- places in DE had 8-10, and then ofc NJ and points NE got hammered.

Gotta give the guy some credit- he manages to claim victory even as his 'discovery' fails over and over. As long as it snows a lot somewhere in the US, and at least one other weather geek on social media mentions Polar Vortex, winner!

Who is excited for SAI tracking season? Right around the corner! Nothin' like good ol' snake oil.

Warmer today, but still nice. Got the hydraulic log splitter out, and split and stacked the wood from the tree I cut down last fall. Next victim is the tree that blew down in that isolated severe storm back in July. Taking a break now. 120 time.

His data was pretty flawed as PSU pointed out. But what he was attempting to do as I recall was to make a correlation between a severely -QBO through the winter months during a Nina(may have been specifically a weak Nina) and colder temps in the east. I don't believe he was claiming it would be snowier than normal, but I really don't care enough to go back and look.

Yeah I was just having a little fun with it. December isn't that far away now, so its worth casually watching these models over the next couple months to see whats being offered up for a general long wave pattern. We know the CFS vacillates from one end of the spectrum to the other at this range, but if we start to see more favorable than unfavorable looks, it will at least keep hope alive for awhile.

CFS has sniffed it out!

Ya gotta love the swings on the CFS runs. It now has HL blocking for DJF December with the epic 'savior' Baffin block. For January and Feb the Pacific actually looks decent plus the -NAO persists. The upcoming runs will trend back towards reality.

Looks like 4-6" for Denver metro on the Euro. Accumulations should mainly be on the grass and trees in the metro area. Temps look to be 31-34 when the heaviest precip is falling, after several days well into the 90s.

In other sports news, NFL is back this week. Hard to believe. Go Ravens.

They hangin' near respectable. Yankees look dead right now. Love to see them end up at the bottom with the Red Sox. Rays may run away with the division.

97 in Denver today with smoke, and a winter storm watch in effect.

Yeah I have those too. One slammed into one of my large right triangle windows and flopped down on the deck a few years back. Thing was huge and I wasn't sure it was going to live. I left it alone and checked on it a couple hours later and it looked better. When I walked towards it, it hopped up and flew to a nearby tree.

58 here this morning. I predict the first stink bugs will make an appearance on the sunny side of the house this afternoon.

Nice overview based on the current data/climate guidance. A lot has to be in our favor for an average to above average snowfall season in the MA, outside of the western highlands. At this juncture, there really isn't much to like in that regard. Almost every major driver/index looks as if it will be the antithesis of what we need here. We had this situation last winter, and the worst possible outcome resulted. You mentioned the solar min, and I concur that is a nebulous influence, and will certainly not offset all the other factors that may align to inhibit the development of any persistent HL blocking. What we hope for are the inevitable variations in a mostly "bad" pattern, and a bit of luck to take advantage for a fluke event or 2. Since we had zero of that last winter, maybe we are due a little.