CAPE

Progressive is good. Not looking forward to more heavy rain. Hope it is correct. I am looking forward to Fall weather with abundant sunshine returning later in the week.

Picked up 0.41" of rain overnight. Not sure where it came from. I guess I wasn't paying attention, but last I saw there was a 20% chance of showers.

I may hit 12" by Wed here. Crazy. Pushing 9" now.

I don't think either one of us are crazy about the 12z Euro. Too much over this way and not enough up your way. Cant wait for the cooler and drier weather after this event.

Texans look determined early on in this game. They haven't played great, but cant be happy with their first 3 games being KC. BAL. and PIT. Take it out on the Steelers!

12z CMC keeps the heavy stuff down in eastern VA and NC. A general half to 1.5" for N VA and most of MD. It has been more progressive than the GFS and Euro though, so probably not correct.

Amazing shot! Quite a contrast.

I like the 12z NAM better with the heavier rain distribution.

GFS is trending in the right direction the last few runs for @losetoa6 Way too wet here for my liking though.

73 here and cloudy, but the sun has made brief appearances a few times.

This grossness has overstayed its welcome. Our fall preview period seems pretty far in the rear view mirror, even though its only been a week. A few more days of this garbage and we can get back to some refreshing Canadian air with low dew points.

Have had a few hundredths here overnight. Total since late Friday night is 0.88"

I wish I could send it your way. These late season tiger mosquitoes need to go. I really don't want to have to do a malathion nuke job at this point, but I may have too lol.

I hope the heaviest rain somehow eludes my yard. I really don't want it. NW of I-95 is long overdue.

WPC has the area in a slight risk for excessive rain day 3. From Mount Holly- Hazards: The longer the front stalls or at least slows, the longer our region will be in southerly return flow (resulting in low level moisture advection). Consequently, precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches will be possible, especially over the coastal plains. The 90th percentile of pwat at IAD for late September is about 1.5 inches, so needless to say if this happens, pwats will be well above normal. Additionally the warm cloud layer will likely be very deep for late September. Also, low and mid level flow could be close to parallel of the front, which could increase the threat for training storms/showers. Therefore, will mention the potential for heavy rain in the HWO. However, have chosen to hold off on a flash flood watch at this point given the poor run to run consistency we have seen so far, especially with the timing of the front (timing will be key to the threat for heavy rain).

Looks like a legit heavy rain threat for much of the region this week, with both the GFS and Euro digging the UL energy and slowing the front.

^That would qualify as a blocky pattern.

Nice post. Good info. You could have been a lazy, useless turd like Mersky, and weenied or laughed at his post, as he always does, but ofc, that's not you. That's him.

For reference, this is what i started with in early August. Most of the areas that are green is clover.

It has been a protracted process, but pretty much going according to plan. Still plenty of clover mixed in, but hey, its green, and it loves to grow here, so I wont complain. You can see the most recently seeded areas, just greening up now. Mostly in front of the fire pit area, which was all clover before.

Drinking one of these. Holy shit. The smell is as good as the taste. Been wanting to try this, but at 14 bucks its a bit steep. It is worth it. Great Imperial BBA stout. With coffee!

All of a sudden it's pouring rain. Sun was out a few mins ago lol. Doesn't look like t will last long.

Man I hope not. I don't want to drown the new grass. I wish I could will it in your direction. Plenty of time though. 12z GFS has the heavier rain for the lower eastern shore/southern DE, but still an inch+ NW of there and into your area.

Some Sun here now. Temp up to 74 and it feels tropical with a DP of 71.

Well I do have a seasonal wetland on the back part of my property, but it is only wet when the water table breaks the surface in late winter and Spring. Otherwise my property is high and dry. With shorter days and cooler temps, the soil stays pretty moist, which is always a battle here during the summer no matter how much it rains.