CAPE

Gotta be careful with that "we" thing! Again, the 2 most recent Ninas both produced big snow events in early Jan(of '17 and '18) for eastern areas, with a pretty crappy look up top. Just saying, it can happen. In general, yes, we need a decent HL look(AO/NAO) for significant snow down here in a Nina, but the same can be said in most cases even in a Nino, and especially for the lowlands.

Too warm. Bring back Fall.

Dude, we agree on the blocking lol. No worries. Where we differ, I think, is on expectations. Most of us here know that the bar is always lower going into a Nina. So like I said, a "good" winter, during a Nina, is mean snowfall, give or take. If the requirement for a 'good" winter is above average snow, well that is not likely in these parts without some blocking, and esp in a Nina winter. People would be better off hoping for median snowfall in general. More realistic these days.

Remember, there really is no "we", especially during winter.

Yep. My yard and esp places further east did ok with the Boxing day storm, but despite the blocking, many in this sub forum don't have fond memories...

Yes it was and we had our best region wide snowfall in March. Eastern areas cashed in during the cold snap the first part of January, while the DC area was cold and dry. That period was driven by a favorable Pac, with not much help in the N Atlantic, which goes back to what I was saying in my initial post on the subject- we can get some good snow here when we have a favorable EPO/PNA, absent a -NAO, although it clearly doesn't happen very often in a Nina.

Where did I say a -NAO wasn't important? The MA generally doesn't do well in a Nina, period(outside of the western highlands).That has mostly to do with the lack of a subtropical jet and NS dominance, Miller Bs etc. A "good" Nina winter is getting somewhere near average snowfall. There are a few Nina winters where extreme blocking allowed for above normal snow. The last time we had a Nina, 2017-18. many areas here were right at average(not DC, sadly), and right along the coast did better than average. That was a predominantly +NAO winter. There was a MA beach blizzard in early Jan(da bomb cyclone!) although the NAO may have been technically neutral as that storm approached.. Certainly no blocking. So it can happen.

We can snow here with a favorable Pacific(PNA/EPO) and a +NAO. Its not always easy and there is a higher risk of bigger storms tracking inland, but we did pretty well in the winter of 13-14. Gotta have the cold available and that pattern delivered consistently. Ofc that winter was not a Nina. A -NAO definitely improves the odds of a favorable storm track down here though. It is pretty much a requirement for a big snow producer, especially for the coastal plain.

Maybe Cohen will be right for the wrong reason again.

Based on recent/current observations, it appears to be headed in that direction. 40/70 Benchmark made a post on his preliminary thoughts for winter a page or so back and discussed it in detail.

Maybe an early season snow chase at Canaan.

Looks warm for awhile. Probably 5+ degrees above average in general over the next 5-6 days, before we get what looks like an impressive trough digging down from Canada mid next week with a big PNA ridge out west.

Assuming we are looking at a CP based, low end moderate Nina, where is the most likely location for the N/EPAC ridge to park? Given the current state and trend of the QBO, significant HL blocking episodes(AO/NAO) would appear an unlikely prospect once we get into the heart of winter, so it looks like the most critical element is the exact placement of that ridge. If it is further NE, that would seem to lessen the chances of a persistent SER.

Transient ridging in the NAO domain is tricky. It is clearly not a block, and to get any benefit from it takes great timing. Many times it looks "good" when it shows up on a mean, but it ends up being useless and/or nothing more than a ridge passing through that space out in front of a digging trough. There are varying degrees of actual blocking, but the premise is the same- the storm track is forced underneath, and it persists for some appreciable amount of time such that we don't have to thread the needle.

Rate of change of daylight is highest now. Most everything in nature is a sine wave, or a close approximation.

Decent chance it becomes a semi-permanent fixture.

If we end up with a moderate, CP based Nina, we likely wont be seeing many of these looks during winter. Might as well enjoy it now.

From Mount Holly AFD this morning- The main forecast question today is if the skies will become whiter in appearance this afternoon, owing to another round of smoke from the fires in the western U.S. Latest HRRR-Smoke simulations indicate a fairly broad region of upper-level smoke will migrate eastward into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as westerly flow in the Midwest/Great Lakes reaches a col positioned on the East Coast. This pattern is favorable for the smoke to move into the region and subsequently stagnate in the highly diffluent upper-level flow west of Teddy. The sun may become more filtered today as the smoke moves into the area, and there may be some impacts on high temperatures. For now, though, think any effects on temperatures will be low, given that there will be plenty of time for radiational warming this morning.

^Nice writeup with helpful supporting/background data. That last analog composite is generally in line with the h5 pattern the seasonal/climate models have been depicting for winter, with the possible exception of Dec, fwiw. Not a good look for this region, but we are getting used to the pig EPAC ridge parking in an 'unfavorable' location with little to no help in the AO/NAO space.

43 for the low here.

There are a only a few out here and there, but they are aggressive. I wouldn't think they last much longer, with the dry stretch and cooler temps.

The last few years were bad here. Since I don't have an attic- log home with all cathedral ceilings- once they find a way in up top, they end up in the house and live with me all winter. I probably flushed 100 of them down the toilet from Jan to March, and vacuumed up a bunch more. Annoying bastards. I am ready this year. Last weekend I sprayed an insecticide with a long lasting residual under the eaves, along the fascia, soffit vents, and the entire chimney from bottom to top. They are normally congregating on the south side of the house by now. I don't think they are going to be suddenly absent this year, but hopefully not as many.

Yes. That dude is a joke.