CAPE

Not a dumb question, and there does seem to be something to the 'drought begets drought' idea. It's possible soil conditions play into it, but imo it's much more likely a function of the general pattern. The mechanisms for large scale ascent and moisture advection should largely overcome antecedent soil conditions.

2-4" (rain) for your yard late week. Book it. Lol at the GFS op the last few runs. At least it got a clue and now has snow in N NY and NNE.

Yeah I spent a couple hours yesterday morning blowing and mulching leaves. Today It looks like I never did anything lol. It will be a perpetual thing over the next several weeks.

Temp has really dropped since the rain started falling. 44 now. 0.21"

Raining hard now. I expected this to be more of a light, showery rain. Temp down to 46.

Rain has moved in here.Temp is 49.

Getting it to snow here is fluky most winters. It's probably become more so recently.

The late week storm is looking like a legit soaker with tropical moisture streaming up ahead of that closed low. This is the one for your yard @losetoa6

You should start a thread. That's at least 2 GFS op runs in the last day or so that have had significant snow just north. It must be real, despite no other model agreement.

Does bad weather actually affect Mahomes and that offense? Not sure it won't be an advantage as fined tuned as they tend to be. Denver has to play D and keep it low scoring. For their sake, maybe the weather helps.

Sunday Snow. Temperature falling to around 15 by 5pm. North northeast wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -1. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Maybe. I wouldn't bet on it though. We can still get pretty warm the first half of November. 74 here.

Chillier rain.

Up to 73 here. Decent breeze, so it feels quite nice.

I have another half of a tree worth of wood left to split, but I think I am done for now. I'll wait and see how things progress. Don't want to stock up too much, as it would surely put a nail in the coffin of our upcoming Nina winter.

Sun has broken out here and temp up to 69. Should hit 75 easily unless the front sneaks in early. I doubt it over here.

Capital Weather Gang article with a potpourri of winter outlooks. DT is thinking back-loaded and above normal snowfall for DC. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/21/washington-dc-winter-forecasts-2020/?fbclid=IwAR0KbqBko3L1eyFPIZbWE5vr9l-LDSN2NUloXhSlZxFWXhsDGyG7lWz-j4w

I'll take Sunday even if its cloudy with a stiff breeze and some showers. It ends this warm, stagnant pattern, and even though we ridge again for the beginning of the week, it won't be as warm and will be short lived as the trough finally heads east. Looks like a decent chance of a more significant wet period late next week, with cooler temps into next weekend.

Preseason is long in these parts.

We generally need some HL 'help' to get average or above average snow. In the absence of a -AO/NAO, a -EPO can get it done.

There is a correlation between the AO phase and the ENSO state, and the AO is the index most highly correlated to snowfall for DC-BWI. The NAO is almost always in the negative phase when there is a negative AO, so the NAO is a factor. I don't have the numbers, but I would bet a predominately -AO for DJF is more likely during a Nino than a Nina. Not sure if there is a large enough sample size, but a Moderate, CP-based Nino might have the highest correlation to a -AO. @psuhoffman can probably give the numbers off the top of his head.

Looking forward to a fall-like day on Sunday, with temps in the 50s, in between episodes of persistent east coast ridging. Maybe the actual cold front will finally make it here by the end of next week, with some rain and seasonably chilly temps. Typical La Nina pattern. We should all get used to this.

Bad here this morning. Most challenging drive in this week by far.

GFS is back to advertising that "high impact" event for late next week. Heavy rain with some decent wind with the coastal low, and maybe some mountain snow showers on the backside.

Might happen. Cam is probably a one year stop gap in NE. Apparently they are one of the teams exploring a deal for Darnold.