CAPE

He is wise and really knows the local climo, and seems immune to hype. I don't think that is being negative.

Maybe. But if you ignore the dumbass snow maps and silly surface p-type maps, that run verbatim was a wound up coastal hugger with very marginal temps. You of all people should be able to tell us the actual outcome. That said, its an op run 7 days out with a favorable pattern as advertised on the means. Next run!

Verbatim? Me neither. Its (not) happening! tho.

Yes I was in Carroll county then. Instant whiteout when that hit, with rapid temp drop and flash freeze. Only event that was close to that, although not as dramatic, was the mid Feb convective snow in 2015. That was over 3" in about the same amount of time.

I see coastal storms.

Y'all know I hate snow maps but this captures that window pretty well. There is a signal there.

Yeah that's the rare one that would make pretty much everyone happy. Has snow for the whole state of MD and almost all of VA. Lets do it.

I counted 6 that look acceptable. Not as good as the 6z run.

It will be close enough to give us another cloudy day or 2 at least. Need more of those.

Yeah we aren't getting vodka cold, and we don't want/need it. We just want moderate cold, and that's exactly what the models are advertising mid to late month.

Looks like a wave along a front, with cold coming in on the backside. Some Barney cold at that.

The 6z GFS delivered ample digital snow, and Ji is asleep. I am sure the later runs will retract it so he can melt.

On the 6z GEFS I see 8 or so members with frozen for the MA region, with a few nice hits. Pretty decent signal.

Our nearby source region is going to be a lot less torchy by mid month, courtesy of what appears to be a sustained -EPO. Currently much of Canada is awash in modified Pac air. By mid month it is largely scoured out and replaced by polar air. Beyond the 15th of the month still looks like the period where our chances for colder storms increases. As @WxUSAF has been saying, anything we may get before that time is gravy.

0z GEFS looks decent for a little something early next week.

I think the WFT has a legit chance. TB D is not very good, and the WFT D line can pressure Brady and stuff the run. Their secondary needs to play well too tho. TB has some good downfield weapons.

I got my whine, and some cheese to go with it.

lol I always include a disclaimer anytime I post anything from the super LR/seasonal tools, favorable or unfavorable. The weenies seem to miss it tho.

Yes and it did it the last few runs too once beyond week 4. I only mentioned it to keep the good vibes from today going in here. In all seriousness- as I said- its usually complete crap beyond week 3 or 4 at the most. The main takeaway was the continuation of the cold the EPS is depicting towards the end of its run.

Just think typical Nina. Or what PSU has been fearing. Good thing is, its pretty much crap beyond 2 weeks(after the run it initializes on).

New edition of the Euro Weeklies continue from the previous version with a decidedly colder look the last half of Jan. I won't mention where it goes from there.

Shit let me get some wine.

First time I have seen Mt Holly mention the evolving pattern/potential in their AFD. Same general ideas we have been discussing here. The overall weather pattern of ridging over the north Atlantic with troughing over eastern Canada looks to continue through the long term. This is the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is often favorable for cold, stormy weather in the mid Atlantic. However a split flow in jet over eastern Canada looks to divert the real cold air well to our north so temperatures should actually be seasonable during this period. And at least initially the main storm track will likely remain supressed to our south. In terms of the details, the next southern stream wave looks to help steer a coastal low from the SE CONUS northeast off the Carolina coast by later Friday into early Saturday. There`s still a chance this could brush parts of Delmarva into southern NJ with a bit of rain or snow late Friday into early Saturday however this otherwise looks to be miss for our area meaning continuing mostly dry weather. We will continue to track this closely though in case it ends up trending back farther north and west which is still not completely out of the question. Otherwise high pressure should then move in and dominate for this coming weekend bringing a fair amount of sunshine and dry weather. By early next week we`ll need to watch the potential for another storm system that could move up or off the coast later next Monday into Tuesday.