CAPE

Hey y'all, it might snow! Maybe relax?

lol what a disaster this thread has become.

lol what a gradient over this way,

Latest from Mount Holly...in other words, stay tuned. Probably not much in the way of ice though. The current track from the model guidance keeps the low near the coast as it passes by. This would bring precipitation to the entire forecast area, possibly starting as early as Wednesday morning, and continuing through the day into Wednesday night. There are timing and placement differences between the available guidance with the GFS being a daytime evening, while the ECMWF and Canadian are a late day and evening-overnight event, so the details are still uncertain. But, as of now, it looks like this would be a rain/snow event, and not much in the way of sleet or freezing rain. As always, the track will determine the p-types. But it looks like much of the area could see some snow at some point during the event, with an accumulating snow possible for some areas. Specific details this far out are impossible to pin point. The main points are precipitation is looking more certain for the entire forecast area now, and that an accumulating snowfall is becoming more likely for portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Actual P-types will be dependent on the track of the low and thermal profiles.

Is that the first guess? First call? Final guess? Last call?

Looks an awful lot like the Euro lol. Although it gives us some back end snow.

Been drinking nothing but Stouts. Needed a change up. Bought a 4 pack of this stuff a week ago. Try the 10w-40 from Hi-Wire if you haven't already. Super good.

Waiting for the HH NAM, for some reason lol. Good stuff.

It's really big, but it's not slow.

2 runs in a row the CMC has a damn near perfect track.

dw your yard will get pooped on. not runny either.

Yes. If the block was more expansive towards the western Atlantic, that 50-50 low would be crawling, and we would probably have just enough suppression.

LOL just said that in my reply to nj2va.

The block is really just getting established, so that wouldn't apply in this case. The main issue to me is the degree of amplification/trough orientation, and how it interacts with the area of confluence to our NE. The ridging over Greenland as depicted is not very expansive either, and focused a tad north of where I would like to see it. Inland at elevation this is not as critical. eta- lol i thought you were referring to next week. my reply is in regards to the midweek storm.

Almost exactly the same position as 0z run, but a tad weaker.

Its not as good a run as 0z. Mean snowfall 2" along I-95 for the mid/late week storm. eta- could be a bit more with the back edge of precip near DC at hour 144.

Still super marginal with temps at 850 and surface, but trending in the right direction. Maybe a wet paste job.

Plenty of ground fog and heavy frost. Low of 29 but 31 this morning.

Yeah we could use a few more that have snow in my yard.

Not a big believer in the Monday event producing much frozen for the lowlands at this juncture. If the heavier precip gets further north, probably a better chance for the nw burbs..

6z GEFS early week deal.

Just looking over the 0z runs. Overall good stuff for the mid week potential. For I-95/east the CMC op has pretty much an ideal outcome for a mid December storm. Good track, doesn't amp too much/go negative, and the confluence is not displaced so the surface high ends up in a pretty ideal spot. Still a long way to go.

33 at 8PM

One of my go to places has a few bottles left from a year ago on sale. I have been bypassing it for other stouts, but tomorrow might be the day I pick it up.