CAPE

And then this.. Dw it will trend colder with that mega block...and be a great snowstorm for NC.

The anafrontal Xmas miracle is happening.. Remember, I called the white Xmas a couple weeks ago. @WxUSAF knows.

I am so grateful someone posted a snow map for an event 6 days away.

Actually had a flash freeze here yesterday morning. Cold came in quick as the last bit of rain was falling.

It just wants to rain here...a fart it all it takes.

The jet streak position is favorable(LF quad) and there is some moisture. Surface temps and timing probably the biggest issues for getting a skiff of snow..

Shortwave is a tad better on the 12z GFS.

Yeah its embarrassing. I don't understand why they had to blow up the whole look/functionality just because Flash support is done. Use another runtime app/plugin but keep the same general interface and features.

Yeah if the AO cooperates we should be ok with cold that's 'good enough' as we move forward. Interestingly, the extended GEFS has suggested the WPO/EPO go negative from time to time, but then it backs off. When it has had that look though, the NA is also pretty good, and the overall h5 pattern looks remarkably favorable. lol probably why it keeps losing it- very unlikely to verify unless the Nina craps out.

Mount Holly: nothing to see here, but stay tuned, just in case! The next surface low will be crossing east, with the center of the low likely remaining near the US/Canadian border. This is likely to result in a cold front approaching our region late next week. Another low may develop along the cold front, but even so, it appears that most of the precipitation with this event will come ahead of the front, solidly in the warm sector. Thus, it appears if we see any precipitation associated with this system, it will be mostly rain on Thursday. However, stay tuned to the latest forecast as at least one model shows QPF behind the strong cold front, which would be changing to snow.

NWS radar has always been my go-to, probably out of convenience. The new radar is just a horrific combo of ugly and poor functionality. Any suggestions on the best (free) radar site?

Yup. And it is pretty rare to not have p-type issues in these bigger, high qpf storms.

Yeah I get it. I still think people get biased when they see 20" over their yards run after run, when in reality it is actually more like 10 verbatim, and then when they actually get 7..well you know.

I don't recall any snow amounts that high. The event was in and out in under 2 hours. It started with marginal temps, 33-34. Most of the snow here fell at 32 degrees, with massive aggregates. It piled up fast despite the temps. Yes the cold behind the front was impressive.

lol sorry. Hard to know when it comes to 'objectively' assessing model performance. I will say I think some folks here would be better served to never look at the ridiculous WB snow/ p-type maps and do some actual analysis of the data. I literally never look at them when I am analyzing a model run. Unfortunately I get to see them here ten times over.

I recall it being pretty well forecast at least a couple days leading up to it. It was convective in nature but fairly widespread. Totals ranged from 1 to maybe as high as 4". I maximized here pretty good with over 3. It all fell in an hour or so, and the end had a mini whiteout as the actual arctic cold came in.

I watched the globals pretty closely from the perspective of my yard, and the Euro was showing next to nothing here due to the warm temp profile, while the CMC still had significant snow, and the GFS was somewhere in between depending on the run. I am not into grading model performance, but among the globals none of them were very good 4-5 days out(surprise). The EURO(and the NAM) seemed to do better with depicting the extent of warm air intrusion inside 3 days.

We need something like the mid Feb 2015 event that kicked off our backloaded winter. Not sure how to characterize that one, but it was along a sharp cold front and intense af. That would be fun to have on Xmas eve.

Yeah its an art. Adding a subtle layer of flavor that jives with the other layers and the beer style isn't always easy. That RAR breakfast stout I drank last night was like eating a thick slab of salty, hickory smoked bacon. Not subtle. Way too heavy on the breakfast.

It seems very odd, but it's a local play on the traditional oyster stout, which does involve oyster(shells at least) in the mash. It reminds be of that type of stout, but it seems to develop an unpleasant off flavor if its not consumed within a few months. Not one of those 'better with age' beers.

Ggem does it but no cold again With a persistent vortex in/near the WPO domain, and a strong Asian-Pacific jet, it wont be easy to get super cold air in our source region. We probably need the AO to be significantly negative to mitigate that somewhat, and allow TPV lobes to break off and come south.

Now that is a legit west based block in the ideal spot for the MA.. Too bad it's a GFS op run and will never materialize.

The primary reason a -AO is number one when it comes to DC snow is it means the PV isn't a super wound up ball of doom, with all the cold locked up in the high latitudes. When there is a real deal -AO it reverses the "natural order", and allows anomalous cold to move into the midlatitudes with relative ease. As you said, we still want some NA blocking as it greatly increases chances for a favorable storm track underneath, and it is pretty much a requirement for an HECS as it inhibits a coastal storm from flying up the coast. Ofc 2009-2010 was the classic example of a negative AO/NAO working the magic.

All flavored vodkas are terrible. The fruity ones are so artificial and gross. Very chemical like. Floor cleaner?

1.22" here 66.8" for the year.