CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Damn it's foggy in Philly.
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Had to change the channel for a few mins. Back on now.
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Army-Navy game starting. I just sat down with a DFH 120.
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The mean track is very similar to the op run. If you want to use snowfall clown maps as the reference, it was a slight tick down from 0z.
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My profile photo is a composite of the 500 mb heights for the 5 days leading up to this storm.
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It is highly variable. I miss out on as many southern sliders as I manage to catch the NW edge of. A synoptic set up like this often gets this area into the good stuff with the I-95 crew, but the air mass is not super cold, its mid December, and look at the warm ocean temps just offshore. There is going to be some strong easterly winds for a time with that low track. Dec 2009 was a 20" all snow event here, but it had a legit west-based block and a perfect track. Cold locked in.
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We are going to warm and rain with this setup. There is no way around it. Just a matter of duration, and the Euro gets us in on the heavy deformation snow this run. Went from next to nothing at 0z to probably several inches at 12z, and look at that surface temp gradient near us for a good chunk of the storm. Hopefully that ticks southeast some in future runs.
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Yeah I'm not super encouraged by those panels.
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Oddly, they aren't the most useful tool for determining what's actually being depicted at the surface.
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Holy crap with the snow maps lol. We should have a thread for that.
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Great happy ending. Low deepens just east of DE and boom. A lot of damn rain here first though.
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I hope you aren't looking at those wonky surface p-type maps to make that assessment lol. GFS has plenty of rain for our area.
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I'm not sure its the track as much as it is the strength/position of the confluence and the surface High to our NE. CMC has the High in a better position and a bit stronger, and even with the super tucked in track, 850s stay colder for eastern areas compared to the GFS.
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Yeah I noticed that. Has it further west this run but nearly the same result. Not really a deeper low at that point either. Odd, ofc it is the CMC lol.
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At this point not sure there is much that can change it. Yeah a flatter wave could do it- but probably not likely. A bit stronger confluence/suppression/stronger high up north is the best answer, or...the low bombing further south and a tad less tucked.
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That is already likely the case for SE of I95, if GFS and EURO are correct. Just looked at the GEFS, and its hours and hours of rain here with temps in the upper 30s verbatim. Need several ticks SE to give your area a buffer, and give me some decent snow. Went slightly the other way on the 12z GFS/GEFS.
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After last winter, 3-5 inches would be fine for a mid Dec storm. As long as it doesn't all come on the front end and wash away lol.
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I am literally right where it says 3.6, maybe a tad NE.
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That does happen, but not likely in this situation. Some minor shifts that might be favorable for eastern areas aren't going to have much if any impact on the NW crew.
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Yeah I would never expect all snow here in a setup like this. That happens with legit cold and a more offshore track. I am essentially tracking the duration of the warmth/rain during the height of the storm.
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I thought the latest GFS had that going on too. Low offshore in a perfect spot, then next panel it is NW and right on the MA coast. eta- I am referring to the coastal development/evolution
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I was a kid living in Carroll county at the time. True Arctic air mass locked in leading up to that one. That may have been a Archambault event, as it turned much milder right after that as I recall.
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All I will be watching for future runs are 850/925 temps, and how far inland the 0c line gets. The 6z GFS was not good for our area. Need the low track a bit more offshore. I think any significant ridging out in front is problematic too wrt confluence and surface high strength/position.
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I generally agree, and that will probably be the case for the beginning of this event for sure. As the low tracks closer, the question becomes how much the upper levels warm. Not much of a risk out your way, but if the low is tucked in and the winds are screaming out of the east, the cold can erode fast. Pretty strong signal for this looking at the ensemble members. Hopefully things shift a bit over the next couple days,
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lol no. It's just become a running joke here over the years.
