CAPE
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The general pattern this week into next weekend looks conducive for multiple chances of heavy rain and possible flash flooding, with the mid week period being influenced by the remnants of Fred. Just looked at the hi-res rainfall totals and several locales along and south of a line from DC to Dover have seen 4-6" over the past 72 hours.
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Here is the culprit. A decent wave developed along the front. Mount Holly did mention this possibility in their evening AFD.
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Man radar looking impressive! We are likely going to have a dry frontal passage around here. The good instability is well SE.
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85/73 Still pretty gross out but not as hot as yesterday. Picked up 0.35" of rain yesterday, but expect the best convection will once again fire more to my south and east today. Heard thunder all night into the early morning from storms moving south of here. 5 or so miles SE there were 2" plus amounts, with up to 4" over the last 24 hours in central and southern DE.
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There were 7 simultaneous roost rings visible on Dover radar this morning.
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Same here. Getting some decent general rain here now behind the good convection, which I just missed yet again. Plenty of thunder in all directions and some flashes of lightning, but no hits.
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I managed 0.06" lol. The rest of the main part of the line is heading south. Pretty much all the Mesos had a miss here, so kudos. Tomorrow looks like the best stuff will be SE of here too. No complaints, as I was due for some storm frustration lol. Now watch, next Thursday when I don't want rain, I will surely see a deluge.
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The outflow surging out ahead of that main line has popped some new storms, but unfortunately a mile or 2 to my east and NE. Might be the third day in a row of thunder and drizzle- "near hits", i.e. misses.
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Can we make a trade? blueberry boy for 007?
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Boulevard Rye on Rye for Friday the 13th HH. Big, complex, boozy beer probably considered more appropriate for a chilly Fall day than a hot steamy one. Not for me. Superb.
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EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 12 August 2021
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The last 2 days places west of us have been favored with the better forcing. Nothing really to keep the convection going as it moves east with the loss of heating.
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Called it. A few rumbles and 0.03" of drizzle.
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Like yesterday, I don't expect the line of storms to hold together as it heads east.
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Disgusting out there. Easily the worst day of the summer here. Was outside staking out an area for excavation/tree removal for a new expanded parking pad, and drenched. Just walking in the woods and hammering in stakes. Took a shower and now sipping on a 120. Feel much better.
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Plenty of places that aren't in the DC area will see snow by Dec 5th, or Nov 5th, or Oct 5th.. Canaan Valley probably averages more snow in November than DCA for the entire winter.
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I got some leftovers from dying storms. A little over a tenth. Missed most of the action just to the east on Monday. A quarter inch total the last couple days. Not hurting for rain here though. Would be nice to get a good thunderstorm. The inch+ from that coastal low this past weekend was boring.
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Probably a better chance down his way than around here.
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Actually suggestive of clippers, your fav.
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Nitpicky.
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lol probably. We suck in blocking regimes lately. Either too suppressive, or no cold anywhere in sight.
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The CFS has been suggesting persistent +height anomalies up top for the entire winter. Not that it means a lot at this juncture, but not much happening in a winter thread in early August other than pure speculation.
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There have been periods over the last 30 years where El Ninos have been predominant. Cyclical. Since the strength of the trade winds are a major factor in determining ENSO state, maybe do some research on what the tendencies are there, if any, in a changing climate.
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Makes sense, Chuck.
