CAPE

I am still pretty optimistic. And i have seen 14 flakes. Yesterday. I counted them.

You haven't been here long enough to miss any of the posters who choose not to post here anymore, for whatever their reasons are. Or maybe you have..

Mersky? LOL

The persistent vortex parked in the vicinity of AK, with relatively warmer ocean temps, strong/further north Pac jet, prob makes enough of difference wrt to cold in our nearby source region compared to past years. The -AO is usually money here to deliver cold enough air for snow. Lets see how it plays out over the coming weeks with the advertised negative AO/NAO. Maybe going forward a -WPO/EPO will become more highly correlated to snow for the DC area than a -AO. Ofc we are also in a Nina, and some of the "struggles" we are seeing are inherent in the ENSO background state- which also may be shifting.

A guess maybe we need a thread for noob etiquette. Most know better than to barge in and assume we have all been just flailing around in here for years and years waiting to be educated by some wise ass.

He didn't bother reading anything. He is gonna tell us all how it is though!

Good luck making your 4th post a quality one.

I was serious. Might work. That's about 10 days into Jan, and not like it's a torch. We are probably stuck with modified Pac airmasses until further notice.

End of the GEFS run at h5. Funky look. Little better out west though.

Perfectly located Baffin Block at hour 342 on the GEFS. Here are the surface temp anomalies at that time. Might work lol.

The block retrogrades into the sweet spot beyond that timeframe on the EPS and GEFS. Only problem is there is no cold air anywhere close by lol.

I am sure there is something to it, but ofc in his world everything ties to the PV. All above my pay grade. Just looking at h5 though, the advertised mildness would appear to be more directly related to the big ass trough sitting near AK, in combination with the Pac jet.

Both are true to some extent. I was just effing around a bit with that post, although it is accurate..to some extent.

As long as the models get those numbers to the desired levels at day 15, perpetually, we good!

People pay more attention to the esoteric voodoo shit when the LR pattern doesn't look so good.

Judah has his explanation for the modeled mild period in the east for early Jan. Ofc it is related to SPV disruption. What else could it be?!

This stuff is fun to discuss, especially when the perception is that the longwave pattern isn't evolving as hoped/as fast, but it's difficult to predict whether the effects will be net positive, negative, or anything impactful at all. The SPV could take the hit and then quickly rebound.

Low of 23. 27 now. Looks like a solid late Dec day. Probably low 30s here.

The 0z GEFS had a few members suggesting a wave/changeover to snow on the back end of the New Years storm. Kind of bled into the following period. 6z looks like a cleaner signal to me for that window.

Pretty decent signal for a coastal low Jan 3-4 on the 6z GEFS. A few nice snow hits in there, some rain, some offshore.

Nice to see storms tracking near/south of us for a change on an op run, even if they are rain lol. It must have finally "seen" the blocking!

The 0z GEFS has the eastern half of the US awash in mild temps from Jan 5 on. At the very end of the run, the trough near AK weakens/retrogrades. Also at the end of the run, there is a perfect Davis Strait block. I guess we keep watching to see if these ideas are legit. I think I have seen enough of the NE PAC trough/PAC jet extension combo though. It's a Pacific puke machine. The jet isn't likely going anywhere, so that trough needs to relax/retrograde. Again we see hints of that towards the end of recent ensemble runs, but it seems to stay stuck in that timeframe. Meanwhile, something could still pop up between now and early Jan, possibly the (potential)event following the NYE heavy rain event. Seems to be a bit of a window there. Lots of moving parts, but not a lot of cold around.

Might as well keep this thread pinned. Can just rename it. Looking more and more like a repeat for NYE. Warm, wind, heavy tropical rains, followed by cold and dry.

Well it did puke out this random gem. No real support on the ens though.

Lets zoom in a bit closer, a panel later. Ahh yes, I'll take it!