CAPE

I ended up with 1.24" here, but tight gradient just to my northwest. Looks like widespread 2-4" amounts fell from the lower eastern shore into eastern DE and southern NJ.

Rain has been persistent here on the west edge of that low, even though the heaviest stuff is to the east. Pretty impressive looking on radar. Got the pivot. 1.16" and still raining.

0.42" here so far.

Read my earlier post. What global model can be "trusted" in the medium-long range period? Lately I might take the ICON over the GFS or Euro.

A blob of moderate showers popped up here over the last 30 mins.

To be fair everything jumped east/southeast with the heavy rain, even the mesos. The 12z 12km NAM had 1.5"+ here and now next to nothing at 18z. I cant see the 18z Euro, but I would guess it probably looks different than the 12z run.

High of 72 here early. Been upper 60s most of the day. Highest forecast temp here is 89 through next Friday. I am sure the city will manage a few days of 93 or so, but not the widespread scorching 95-100 week the GFS was all giddy about a few days ago.

Pretty compact low. There will probably be some 2"+ amounts not too far east of here, but if the latest mesos are correct, I may struggle to see much more than what I have now, which is just shy of a quarter inch.

That'll be about a 20:1 ratio.

Up to 0.17" here now. Livin' on the edge.

Like no one is a 'fan' of the ICON, but it is often very steady and not as prone to advertising the extremes(that rarely verify) on the way to figuring out the actual outcome.

All global models struggle in the medium to long range to some degree, and more so when the synoptics are more complicated. I find the 'fandom' with model guidance to be completely hilarious.

Damn. Totally jealous. Have fun!

After spits and drizzle earlier, a steady rain has moved in here now. temp is 69. lol the GFS had damn near 90 here a few days ago when it went nuts with the 7 day run of mid-upper 90s. The Euro haters should maybe take a step back.

Different world out there in winter for sure.

Drinking a Climbing Mountains Rocky Road Brown Ale from Black Flag. Never been a big brown ale fan, but this is interesting. Notes are all easy to detect on smell and taste- dark chocolate, almond, and dark fruit- mostly black cherry. Not bad. As with most brown ales, too carbonated and a tad thin for my liking. Abv is respectable at 7.3%.

Pretty much anywhere in the western highlands will average at least 80" of snow. If you want to max out on snowfall find a place on the ridge above 2500'.

WPC seems bullish for some decent rain along and especially east of I-95. Mount Holly has a half to three quarters here for tonight, so we shall see. Best chances for good soaking appear to be southeast of my yard.

If nothing else, that pesky mid level low is going to keep temps lower than they otherwise would be, as it delays the expansion of the Atlantic ridge into our area for a couple days. Mostly cloudy and low 80s today > than sunny and 90 for yard work.

Evaluation of good/bad winter in this region is very location dependent too. Last winter was great for Mount PSU, when temps could barely find a way to sneak below freezing despite the best HL pattern we have had in ages. 1000 feet vs 500 feet made a huge difference in outcome. Lots of cold rain here, and the snow that fell was 31-33 degree slop. Best period was Feb as far is it feeling wintry, but had more sleet/ice than snow. I never recorded a temp under 20 here for the entire winter, even with snow/sleet cover, clear skies, long nights, and no wind. That strong/extended Pac jet ruled and the one time the pattern did allow for some Arctic air in our source region, it dumped in the west and central US- typical of a La Nina, although the way it evolved was also just bad luck with the retrograding block and the TPV being forced west. That could have been a much snowier period for the MA. Instead the trough was to our west with a ridge along the east coast, thus the sleety/icy period. Considering where I live, and shifting climo, last winter was decent. Counting the sleet, was right about median for snowfall here.

July -13.17

We might be drinking, but what you smokin' wit dat shit?

Drinking a SOBO DIPA from Monument City. This is very good and exactly what I expect for this style of beer. I have had some mediocre/bland NE style 'juicy' IPAs this summer, and I was thinking I had lost the taste for them. Probably too many out there now and a lot just aren't very good. I also think they need to be consumed fresh- they don't age well.

12z Guidance is a bit more robust with rain chances for I-95 S&E later tomorrow with that low moving up along the coast.