CAPE

My post just above this one is suggestive of exactly this, but largely because of the conflicting signals.(-PNA teleconnects to eastern ridge, -NAO to eastern trough)

Yeah it didn't "dry up" but not a chance that's how this goes down. At this point it is stuck between a cutter and something tracking underneath. It can't fully determine the impact of the NA block yet, the strength/position of which will counter the -PNA to some degree. The wave interactions are complex and not resolvable at this juncture.

The GFS simply can't resolve the battle between the Nina tendency of a -PNA, and a developing -NAO at this range. There will be some wild stuff from run to run that will change on a dime. The solutions will be all over the place. GEFS will be a little steadier, but the majority of members seem to cluster around the deterministic solution from each cycle. Not too helpful in reducing the uncertainty.

Here is your Friday Happy hour pick-me-up(along with a drink) for those who are in need. Right where we want it.

-AO. It fundamentally increases the chances that cold air masses can (frequently) move from the high latitude source regions and migrate into the midlatitudes. That is how it increases snow chances- we need the cold. A -EPO can also bring cold, but can also tend to be on the dry side and absent a -AO/NAO, the pattern is more progressive with lots of variability in storm tracks. We have to then consider the other indices, such as ENSO state and PNA phase, along with climo, to determine how much our snow chances are increased.

You mean the epic pattern won't be in place by then? But it was supposed to be, i'm sure. DELAYED MEANS DENIED!!!!

You can do whatever you want. Don is great and his posts add lots of value to discussions. I only mentioned it before because you made 3 or 4 reposts of WB maps and they had already been posted and discussed at length in the thread here.

21 here A bit colder than I was expecting this morning.

The next threat beyond the initial threat on the on the means. Differences between the EPS and GEFS on how things evolve 10 days out, but seeing a signal for storm potential with coastal development.

You gotta love the look at the end of the 0z EPS run. The trifecta up top with ideal west based -NAO, and just entering the better snow climo window at that point for the MA lowlands.

0z Euro ens and GEFS both have the wave for Dec 9-10. A decent setup as advertised. In both cases the wave weakens as it moves eastward towards the coast, more so on the EPS. Indications of another wave on its heels, esp on the EPS, which aligns with the 0z Euro op- it weakens the initial wave with a more significant one developing in the south central US and moving east a couple days later. Just at the initial stage in the evolution of the pattern at this point, and my sense on this period has been that it might offer a chance to get on the board early for some. At this point it looks like places further inland/southwest in our region might have the best shot.

Worse with the GFS/GEFS apparently. Dumpster fire and stuff. It must be right.

I suppose it is arbitrary whether one is optimistic or pessimistic about the evolution of the upcoming advertised pattern. If one is pessimistic they are probably now at the stage of nitpicking details that may or may not be valid or even matter, and headed for full on perpetually telling us about everything that can(will) go wrong. In the end, nothing anyone thinks will happen has any influence on actual outcome. Given that, sure seems like having an optimistic outlook is a heck of a lot more healthy and fun.

The newbs are getting a tad panicky over how the pattern might have some unfavorable characteristic as it evolves. Don't we always get the perfect pattern in a Nina?

The Dec 12-13 window looking good on the 12z GEFS.

The pattern might just morph from one favorable configuration to another, like the CFS is suggesting. Not typically how things roll, but this could be one of those winters.

I mentioned Miller B so probably at least one on edge.

Caldwell is available I believe..

Please make it happen. Probably the only way we can get rid of him.

0z EPS for the 12-13th window where a more significant event could materialize involving a coastal low. A decent signal has been there in recent runs on the means. This one may be more complex.. Miller B-ish.

0z Euro runs a wave to our south on the 10th and snows on VA. Near hit. Clean and simple. The setup is nice. Highs and lows positioned where we want them for a frozen event. Low pressure ideally would be further NE off the Maritimes to avoid damping/suppressing the wave as it heads towards the coast, but it is an op run that shows the generally favorable setups we can get with a legit -NAO. 0z GFS has a modest wave with a similar outcome in the same window, a bit earlier.

Well that similarity IS there, but yes, unusual.

I loved interacting with him here, and it would be great if he decided to come back and contribute, but that is his decision. He chooses not to post here dude. None of my business as to why.

Sea effect snow season has begun in NW Japan. Watch it pile up here over the next 3 months.

Looks remarkably similar my profile pic, which is a Dec 2009 composite, minus the inverted look around the Aleutians.