CAPE

Haloti Ngata hit ruined RG3 unfortunately.

Impressive opening drive.

Thanks. Makes it hard to leave though. Might have to get another place out in the western highlands.

Feels like that house belongs in Garrett county lol I would love to move it. I look, but just cant find anything close. I built this exactly the way I wanted it.

Quite a contrast. That storm put me over 19" here. A tenth from a flizzard so far this winter lol.

Several GEFS members suggest a more significant wave Friday into Saturday. With the depicted tightening thermal gradient it makes some sense.

If nothing else it looks like a shot of Arctic air with wind-chills by Saturday. Check out the ocean effect snow on the Euro lol. Who has a boat?

TT graphics suck. That isn't awful. Better off looking at the weeklies though. GEFSx isn't a bad look for the end of Feb into March. Canadian extended looks the same.

It wont be a clipper in this pattern. Our best chances before the pattern probably goes to crap for mid month are with these 2 periods, where there is the possibility of deep enough cold meeting up with some semblance of a shortwave that can actually toss some moisture northward enough. Maybe another shot around the 7th-8th. In each case there are issues and at best we are looking at a modest or mixed event.

Late Feb to mid March is gonna be our time. Maybe. The extended products look pretty good.

Time for another relax- reload- reset. Blow it up. Damn this old fashioned is good. Kinda winged it.

Looks a little better on WB 2-3 inches.. might chase

My last dank 120 for HH. Desperate times. Old Fashioned next.

These 3 panels illustrate how problematic next week is. Flat, fast flow with weak strung out vorticity in the "southern stream", modified dry cold, and suppressed moisture feed. Need a robust shortwave to bring moisture northward, and even then the 'true cold' is too far north, associated with the W-E oriented TPV.

Spring.

lol you said on the upcoming storm. Feb 9th?

First time the temp gets even close to freezing up there on the GFS after today is Feb 6. It snows there tomorrow with some rain right along the immediate coast. That's not N Maine though.

You sure?

EPS mean snowfall Wed-Thursday period:

Wow. Any big hits in there? Like 6"+? A few for next weekend and even into early the following week. The midweek deal looks like 1-2 or 2-4 on a good chunk of members- some right over us, others a bit south or north.

0z EPS also suggests light snow across the area with the midweek wave Wed into Thursday. The snow mean is 2.5 to 3.5" in our region through next Sunday.

Our best shot next week might be next Friday-Sat when the main energy comes east, if its cold enough and dependent on the TPV timing as it shifts east. 0z EPS depiction looks pretty good.

There was a bit more of a meridional component to it but guidance has incrementally backed off. Makes sense it would stay mostly across Canada once the -NAO look vanished. What we are left with is flat, fast, west-east flow, with the NS vorticity strung out and separated from the (weak) vorticity impulses ejecting eastward out of the main energy in the SW. There has to be some sort of notable 'kink' in the flow to get moisture transport north into the cold(and dry) air. We will see what happens when the main energy ejects east towards the end of the week- it looks like the Canadian trough/TPV digs more southward as it shifts east, but that might be problematic with timing and degree of cold in place.

I mean, I see it, but at some point we just have to ride with what we got. Maybe those -EPO patterns with cross polar flow that are traditionally dry and cold/warm and mild, but do produce at times, become more prevalent and we have to roll the dice there. I am hoping we end up with a favorable CP mod Nino next winter with blocking to see where we are at this point. That has obv been the gold standard for MA winters. As of now Nino chances by next Fall are greater than 50%.

There is clearly spread among the members, but wave one, which looks like the weaker one at this point, is still 4 days out.