CAPE
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Speaking of.. this will get some cold into our source region quick.
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Decent early season nearby chase opportunity for those jonesing for snow. Cold front pushes east of the spine of the Appalachians Sunday with strong frontogenetic forcing shown, producing widespread rainfall. Trend has been for somewhat less QPF in the northwest but still 1-2 inches over the southeast forecast area. NBM 90th PQPF over Preston and Tucker Counties still around 3" so potential for decent rises in the Cheat and Mon Basins. Confidence is low on how much snow will fall as the precipitation is ending over the lower elevations. Still looks good for several inches of snow in northwest flow and upslope over the Laurel Highlands and the Preston/Tucker County areas of West Virginia Sunday night and Monday and this will likely require a Winter Weather Advisory at some point.
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Nice disco from Mount Holly- Strong trough and cold front will begin to influence the weather more noticeably Saturday night, with increasing high and mid clouds. The warm front will still be struggling to lift north, so cooler temps prevail, but we will stay above freezing at least, with 30s north and 40s elsewhere. Some patchy fog/drizzle/mist may again develop late Saturday night. Sunday, the warm front is finally sent well north of the region as the southerly low-level jet ahead of the approaching cold front strengthens rapidly. This will bring southerly winds which may gust 30-40 mph along with increasing coverage of showers and possibly even some embedded thunderstorms. The forcing with the upper trough is quite potent and moist flow significant, so locally heavy rain may start overspreading the area. The southerly flow should bring plenty of warmer air northward as well, so temps surge into the 60s for most. However, the most active weather likely waits until after nightfall Sunday night. Southerly winds may gust up to 50 mph along the coast, maybe even a little higher, thanks to the extremely powerful low-level jet. Any stronger cells could even mix down winds up to severe limits. The heaviest rainfall also will occur as the forcing maxes out just ahead of the approaching cold front, with totals likely exceeding 2 inches across much of the area, with localized flooding being a concern along with perhaps some stream/small river flooding in the coming days. A strong push of wind may then occur as the cold front blasts across the region overnight, with widespread wind advisory gusts possible and perhaps some localized gusts near severe limits with the front. Temps likely stay in the 50s to low 60s until the front passes, then rapidly drop into the 40s. A quick changeover to snow with modest accumulation is possible late in the Poconos.
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Time for a thread? This event is in the short range now and multi-faceted with heavy rain/wind, snow inland.
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The majority of GEFS members have at least one southern stream system tracking up and off the SE/MA coast in the 17-23rd period. A few have more of an inland track. That general idea is characteristic of a Nino. It's not a high probability setup for snow primarily because cold air availability is lacking in the pattern as advertised. That said more members than not have normal or below normal temps for the MA/SE during that window. Should there be a storm, higher terrain areas further inland would clearly be favored for frozen.
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There is a hint for something on the GEFS. Verbatim on the mean there is a little snow over S/Central VA. That ridge over Atlantic Canada is problematic, but this is a snapshot on a LR mean and in reality there will be waves moving through the flow/interacting. Starting to see the trough over Alaska shift into a more favorable spot the last few runs, with height lines building northward downstream.
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It's a way to shit up this thread. There is another one specifically for that crap.
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An extended Pacific jet is associated with a +PNA. The specific N-S location also has an influence.
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Getting there on the 18z GEFS. +Heights shifting northwestward into the the NAO domain and the AK trough retrograding.
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Maybe they can substitute for Mt PSU and save winter?
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Busy week for me next week but a few recommendations for you and your friend- Black Tag Imperial Stout Pennsylvania Tuxedo Pale Ale Horkin' Heapload IPA I drank all 3 on tap and loved them all- all available at the shop bottled/canned.
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Flakes flying in Rehoboth.
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The HL evolution in 2009 really was a thing of beauty. Favorable Aleutian low with an EPO ridge that bridged with the retrograding Scandinavian ridge, pinching off the TPV, which dropped energy into the developing trough underneath/ feeding into the 50-50 position, reinforcing the anomalous higher h5 heights building into the NAO domain.
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Yep. They go hand in hand. A true atmospheric block involves a sustained ridge/trough configuration. Rex, omega, etc.
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The origins of that -NAO came from a Scandi ridge retrograding in early Dec. That's the mechanism that really initiated the impressive, sustained NA block that winter. What DT would call a 'real' -NAO.
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Nice to see the good vibes. I'm off to enjoy more DFH beer. So many good ones. Cant try em all. Well maybe.
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Exactly. Its relative. Also if it's super cold up there that can mean +AO and we are pretty much screwed regardless.
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Nino vs Nina. That's the basic difference in the feel at this point. No guarantees ofc.
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I think temps had cooled close to freezing here before the precip began. Antithesis of UHI FTW.
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Yeah I drove out to the Hagerstown area a couple days later and it was wild to see the cutoff driving west on I70.
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That's odd because I tracked that threat from so far out I wasn't going to miss any of it. First time I looked out and saw precip falling it was snow and 32, and an hour before it wasn't doing anything. May have been a mix at the beginning. Precip was heavier to the south and east so maybe it took a bit longer to cool the lower levels up your way. Most of that storm temps were in the 20s here.
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3 snow events here totaled around 20". Great month. Rest of the winter was pretty shit.
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Pretty sure that storm was all snow. It was a beautiful day (around 60) the day before but cold/dry air arrived just ahead of the wave later that night. That was the 'CAPE' storm lol, the one I tracked from 2 weeks out when we were in a hopeless 'shit the blinds pattern'. Ended up with over 9" here.
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Just had a sleet/rain shower here in Rehoboth.
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I was wondering if anyone would notice. And not a bad idea. Utopias barrel aged version ofc.
