CAPE

The potential for around the 10th has looked like a Miller B type deal with the primary tracking well NW. Latest ens runs are further south with both the primary and secondary coastal development, but still plenty of spread. This period is probably it for snow chances in the lowlands. Beyond that it looks like a ridge over Hudson again with a trough digging out west. Then we are beyond mid month.

Dude, come on. This is a simulation, and it will be wrong. Way better chance we are 70 on April 1 than NC getting a snowstorm.

I think too much emphasis is probably placed on the PDO, similar to the MJO, when things 'go wrong'. The ENSO/PDO relationship is complicated and not that well understood, although there are apparent correlations with Nino/Nina events. All these indices interact in ways we simply don't have all the answers to, and ultimately impact the general longwave patterns. It is interesting and fascinating, but ofc our sole interest is all about cold and snow in the MA. It is kind of neurotic honestly lol. This is a straightforward and interesting read on what influences the PDO phase. I have posted this before. Still, it doesn't necessarily provide the ultimate answers we want. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/going-out-ice-cream-first-date-pacific-decadal-oscillation

Pretty much. We seem to have a better shot of getting cross polar flow in Nina to produce a cold period if the Aleutian ridge morphs into a -EPO/+PNA pattern. With a gradient initially as the cold presses southeastward and flattens/dislodges the eastern ridge, just need a wave to move along the boundary. That's how the early Jan 2022 storm worked. Stayed cold for a few weeks with 2 more snow events, esp for the eastern part of the region.

SER will be back next year though. Hopefully it won't be a permanent fixture for the entire winter.

PNA has been variable, which is pretty typical in a Nino. Here is the h5 composite for the winter. This look isn't a winner baby. Not for cold and snow in the MA, at least not in current times.

No. Predominately an h5 ridge across east-central Canada with a mostly -PNA/+EPO, which means not very cold in our nearby source region. It has been mostly just seasonably chilly, but not a good pattern to lock cold in when storms approach. The exception was that 10 day period in January.

Sometimes I get Chuck speak, other times not so much lol.

I think Chuck might be referring to influences such as east Asian mountain torque on the earth's rotation. The hints in his post are mentions of friction and more high pressure. A +EAMT opposes the earth's rotation, and to conserve angular momentum there is an increase in westerly winds in the atmosphere(stronger jet stream).

There's not much to track in the LR realistically, other than maybe a chilly, miserable start to Spring. Might as well just let the convo flow. Some decent back and forth discussion going on. Well, with one possible exception. Just don't stalk me bro.

It did for inland areas, but it was a complete snowless torch outside of that event.

I honestly have no answer. With the random, fluky nature of wave timing, it could happen even if the PDO remains as is, and regardless of Enso state. Probably a weak to moderate east based Nina with some NA blocking episodes, or a Modoki Nino with blocking. A neutral Enso is the least likely to produce such an outcome.

Once in a blue moon, and mostly because of a KU and a few nickel and dimers. But I am afraid that Ninos have largely become impotent. Still have to test the Modoki with blocking, if that is even possible anymore. If we get that, and it fails, well, you know.

Great flick.

I will roll with a Nina- although they certainly can be a complete ratter like last winter, recent Ninos haven't been much better, and tend to struggle to bring even modest cold anymore. Ninas are more likely to feature h5 configurations that can bring legit cold periods to the east at times that at least give us a shot- and cold is the biggest issue now. Get a bit of timely NA help to slow the flow and there is a chance for a bigger storm that can also impact inland areas, like March 2018. All these periods in recent Ninas featured actual cold air and one or more snow events for parts of the MA east of the highlands-

The CFS at super long leads never has much blue esp on TT. It is a generally shitty model even at shorter leads. Follow the height lines and you get the general idea of what it's attempting to depict.

Not year round but its emerging here the last couple days. Also have some little clumps of onion grass that's been up for a couple weeks. All happening sooner than years past.

Maybe..

GEFS keeps giving the digital snow, esp for eastern areas. How long will it last?

Yeah I don't buy it. Just something to have fun with until it falls in line with the more skilled guidance.

About half the 12z GEFS members have rain changing to snow for the Thursday event. Weak signal on the GEPS, but more for Friday- maybe a trailing wave. Not much of an indication for anything frozen on the EPS outside of the western highlands. Someone should start a thread

We know how this will likely go, but it is inside of 7 days and there is nothing else except more LR pattern chasing. Hopium. Copium.

Pretty decent signal on the 6z GEFS. EPS and GEPS remain unenthused.

One provides a chance for ongoing precip with cold coming in, and the other is the usual cold chasing rain. Big differences. GFS scoops up almost all the southern energy and brings it east with a sharp shortwave. Euro leaves much of it behind.

There are 5 members that have some snow in the region verbatim. Not great, but better than 1 in 30. If you are gonna post this crap at least be somewhat accurate.