Why do you make a series of posts supporting +NAO/AO/EPO, and then make another post citing the tendency for a -NAO/EPO?
You are difficult to follow sometimes...maybe its me, and I'm missing something.
One thing I am very confident of with respect to this winter is that there will be a cold source near by.....how often and for how long it will be able to penetrate this far SE, and the mean storm track are up for debate. But I do not see this being a 2011-2012 type dud....we, especially you, should be in the game more often than not.
I wonder if that would make the winter act more like an el nino, as well? Pinatubo induced a strong PV due to the release of aerosols IIRC, but I do not know much about this...
I actually stayed up all night in the lead up to the January blizzard last year, but I realized early in the AM that it would suck for me and was fast asleep by noon.
Overall, I agree on +NAO, but I'm not convinced of a 1988-1989 type death trap of a PV.
@Isothermturned into a lurker last season, unfortunately....still lurks, but doesn't respond to direct inquiries anymore.