40/70 Benchmark

Most la nina are negative PDO....especially stronger ones.

-PDO doesn't make la nina stronger, but it's not the best signal for winter in the east...means -PNA is more favored and makes polar fields more important. It's not a deal breaker, though.

I don't see enough evidence that la nina will be centered far enough west to be a real stinker. Doesn't mean it can't happen...

Why do you have 2014-2015 listed as an analog?

My guess is it comes in pretty similarly to last year....modestly to moderately negative.

Anthony will have that littered throughout social media within the hour lol

ACE juggernaut

@raindancewxwhen is your NAO formula ready?

It will be weak enough...just hope it doesn't up more west-based.

I'm not endorsing that solution...merely explaining what the Euro tweak entails. I agree.

First frost is fast approaching.....discuss.

Yea, I figured as much.

Based on what?

The tweak is specifically to address the tropics. Taken from FB: "Apparently the Euro will be getting a big upgrade in a few weeks, and this update is specifically designed to fix some of the errors that have popped up in recent years in the tropics since the update they made in 2018, which was designed to increase the model’s accuracy with mesoscale features up at Europe’s latitude. Anywho, this new Euro designed to be more like the old Euro with tropical systems is now running parallel to current Euro. And wouldn’t you know it? It shows a violent capture with the upper level low and pinwheels a major hurricane into southeast New England next weekend". More details: "Cycle upgrade 47r3 will bring improvements to the assimilation and observations usage and a significantly improved physical basis for moist processes, necessary to facilitate further development of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and future application at convection-permitting resolutions. The upgrade will bring more accurate upper air fields, particularly tropical winds, as well as precipitation in convective regimes. Several new convection-related products will be available and systematic errors are reduced for wind gusts and visibility for fog and precipitation".

Its def. erratic if you only consider phase/intensity and not structure (ie placement of strongest anomalies and attendant convective forcing scheme). I think that clears up alot, though obviously still not perfect. Anyway, its beneficial that we have so many different methodologies.

Never happen....you can't consider it that linear in nature. No winter, at this latitude, will ever produce that proficiently throughout the entirety of the winter, outside of LES belts and high terrain. There is enough flux due to the MJO that Boston will never see 150".

Update cancel?

Well, its basin wide now and looks to remain as such on most guidance....actually region 1.2 has slight positive anomalies, but my thought is that is negated by the fact that the coldest values are in region 3.

@CoastalWx What do you make of the para Euro?

I don't leave until 10/8

I don't have sources for number one....just going off of what others have said. Look at my last blog post for number two...the link is a ways back...I posted it yeaterday.

That wasn't fruit, it was bile.

Well, there are two main reasons why you get a flat ridge in a la nina.. 1) -QBO/La nina = flat Aleutian ridge 2) Modoki-west based la nina=flat ridge. We have the first one working against us, and the second one is kind of a neutral signal, but I think we have a shot to build it since la nina will remain weak. I am not a huge proponent of #1, as that can be overcome.

At least winter tracking bares fruit