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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. The GEM looks like the 18z EURO to me...just warmer thermals. It has the intense stinger in NE MA.
  2. I think the issue there is how quickly it develops....I wouldn't be worried about the NAM.
  3. Miscommunication. I thought you meant the solution verbatim. I have no issue with it being too warm given the scenario.
  4. Yea, I was wondering that, too......kind of RGEM type thermal issue. I was just interpreting verbatim.
  5. Yea, that is the left goal post....Euro east. I still like my First Call at the moment.
  6. 128-495 may very well get 4-8", but not if the GFS verified.
  7. The NWS mets know how to interpret model data. You do not.
  8. Certainly feasible....I think the GFS and Euro are the goal posts.
  9. It wasn't premature....we are 24 hours from the start with the mid level banding modeled in that area, regardless of what the SPED clown maps show.
  10. GFS is awful for this area.....folks can stop lamenting the NAM
  11. RGEM is a general 4-8"...ignore the @Dr. Dews generated temp algorithm.
  12. Euro seems pretty damned locked in....I would be surprised if it is way off at this point....maybe developing the low a bit too quickly..ie NE shift, and/or w or east up to 40 mi or so.
  13. I'd take that that and run. I think the only guidance that blows for me is 12km NAN and RPM.
  14. I think I had you near the edge of 1-3" and 3-6"....may have to edge upward. We'll see...I think the 18z EURO was the high water mark haha
  15. Walt, I've been waiting for the "late development" rug to get pulled out from under NYS for a few days. W NE is close...as you know, fine line between midlevel haves and have nots.
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