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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its central based, but I don't think structure is as important in a modest event....marginal ENSO events are a lot more variable due to less ENSO forcing...especially lately with the HC expansion, etc.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed. I think odds of a weak are about 75%.....20% moderate, 5% neutral if I had to affix percentages.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you nailed the one aspect that I am remiss about....love baseball postseason. I may catch some of WS and will be back for snow.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not a huge factor...just another element. However, I will add that I do not believe the fact that 22/35 of your listed major PV disruptions occured during easterly QBO seasons is a coincidence.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree....but the Euro is like .53, which is very weak...but I still think mod is a stretch.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Uganda...I went 3 years ago...Feb 2018. I did get to go on a safari and prob will again. This is more vacation...the first time, I had to gain her parent's permission to marry her and went through a whole itinerary of ceremonies/procedures.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, yea...I agree. This season has a high ceiling, but its no slam dunk at all.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    My wife just got her green card, so we are going to see her family....she hasn't seen her parents in person for about 6 years.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Euro was the first to latch onto the idea that Pete would be a waste of a name...I guess it won that bet. lol
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I leave on 10/8 and will be in Africa until just prior to Halloween, so I'll try to send some nice waves across lol
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I learned that the hard way as a kid lol...I was throwing rocks at a nest...my dad warned me stop, then before I knew it, I was swarmed and had to be taken to the ER haha
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have found this in the SNE threads everytime @Damage In Tolland posts. @ORH_wxman and @CoastalWx can verify.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think so.....climo is established not by coincidence. Having that forecast be a "cop out" implies that you should be forecasting extremes, which is generally ill advised at extended leads.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not what I said. All I implied was at least one month averaging a neg NAO/AO is likely.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be very surprised if this season ratted.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Dec 2001 had a SSW? Wow, that one was useless lol Latter Dec/early Jan makes sense to me for this year
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/enhanced-risk-for-significant-episodes.html
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Down to 45.1 this AM.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know, maybe I am missing something, but I would be surprised if this la nina event reached moderate strength, at this point...not that it means a great deal in the grand scheme of things.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the moral of the story is that this winter should be serviceable in the east.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, completely valid. I am in the minority.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I love it...cherish the days when the sun sets as I leave work.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would agree.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    How did it do last year?
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is your NAO formula looking like? Must be getting to that point soon...
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