40/70 Benchmark

I am actually trying to incorporate more of matching weather patterns into my analog methods, as I have learned a great deal from you the past few years. It's good to be eclectic in methodology because this is an imperfect science and every method has a weakness. This is why I would never advise placing TOO much weight on synoptic timescale matching in analogs, or anything else for that matter. There are going to be good analogs that are not entirely in sync with the current weather....just too much chaos to be that precise. That said, I would be positively stunned if this December were not colder in the east than December 2001. Doesn't mean that season does not have value as analog. I did not do forecasting back then, but I do remember that the 2001-2002 season was a real curve ball bc the consensus was very cold and snowy in the east.

Yea, if you tell me I only have one index to work with, and the rest are crap...I would take EPO....at least you know cold will be around. You may still have track issues, but otherwise you could have a perfect track with marine puke and zero baroclinicity to even detonate a bonafide event. It is exceedingly difficult to have a high ceiling in the absence of cold and baroclinicity...best bet is bookened events. But good luck in mid winter.

Absolutely....my point is that it just doesn't get the attention that wind and surge do because its not as sexy. Its insidious in that its actually more dangerous because wind and surge are easier to escape if you act responsibly in advance.

That chart is brutal to diagnose, but the pattern displayed doesn't look awful IMO....looks -EPO, -PDO with maybe a hint of blocking?

The current orange is harmless and always was. A benchmark track is great if you're looking for a blizzard, but bonafide tropical system...not so much. Not to mention it will remain a weak system.

The devastation from Ida in general was a no-brainer...I explicitly called for a top ten natural disaster on Thursday and it hit Sunday.

Yea, it was always obvious that we would get slammed by the remnants...that was not a surprise. I didn't care to delve into it any further because I could not have cared any less if I had tried.

Completely different because that was from freshwater flooding. Anyone with a shred of common sense (not directed at you) knows that Scott and I are referring to severe tropical cyclone impacts in terms of wind and storm surge. I get that fresh water flooding is often more costly, but meteorologically speaking, I'd rather be tied to a chair with my my eyes taped open in an upslope thread.

Does not interest me at all. Non-event.

@raindancewxreally likes 2017-2018, which would work just fine for me. lol Of course, he also likes 2001-2002, which makes me want to play in traffic.

I was pulling several inches per hour in March 2018....I have the notes somewhere, but I think it was like 5-6"/hr.

Yes, but can't rule out moderate. Strong was never on the table IMO.

Still convinced it peaks as moderate?

Got ya.....yea, I am only looking for more conspicuous threats...

From what? That system coming off over the CV islands? Good luck at that beginning latitude.

I remember having about a 13" snowpack heading into the blizzard.

One of the few relative disappointments that season.

Another inconspicuous Harv reference! Love those-

Feb 2015 beat that season as far as pack goes in Wilmington...I think Jan 2011 was about on par with Jan 1996.

So much for the cries of strong la nina...

I don't think that is a sign of an active PAC jet necessarily, however, the position of the ridging may imply some west coast troughing (-PNA)....the Hadley cell expansion is more of a longer term climate shift and while it does serve to augment se ridging, the primary impetus for a se ridge here would be the west coast trough resulting from the offshore position of that ridge. You need to be careful about about how you incorporate the Hadley Cell expansion into forecasting because it is not a stochastic feature, like the blocking, etc.

My argument is that the gradient (shear zone) resulting from the discord between a favorable arctic and hostile pacific set up perfectly for SW NE and the tri state region, and awfully for Maine....ie, waves just got shredded and attenuated upon entry into NE. I think a zone from me into Maine would have done better with either a little less blocking, or a better Pacific.

I'd kill for 2007-2008.

Considering what happened last year, I would be absolutely floored if we got south of piked again this season.

Sounds reasonable to me in a la nina.