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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think October guidance trending warmer is in response to some changes in the tropics. I'll have plenty of time to dissect that from Africa over the next few weeks, and should issue pretty quickly after I return. I wouldn't get too worked up.....yet.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Those are not good changes in the aggregate...looks more RNA and +EPO
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I couldn't care any less about the weather around here this weekend lol
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def....I'll have more down time this go around. I had a pretty tight itinerary last go around.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are some mixed signals in the tropics....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, there is some stuff I have my eye on, but its never wise to buy seasonal guidance 100%. I think I know why its doing that.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Different story in November
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just a little sneak preview....here is my preliminary, rough forecast composite for October....looks decent.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I leave Friday night and will be back Halloweenie week
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    The QBO is actually the one glaring flaw with 2008-2009 as an analog..it was positive. But obviously QBO is only one factor, so its a decent analog overall.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its high on my list...along with 2008-2009.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I actually mean 2007-2008. I agree RE 2008-2009. This year looks modoki at the moment, but lets see what happens moving forward.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I actually don't think that happens this season...at least not here.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jim, any reason why you switched 2008 to a modoki designation when the article had it as hybrid? Just disagree with their designation?
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed. One thing we need to keep an eye on is that this has evolved into a def. modoki look right now....going to have to take another peek at that in about a month before I issue. Saving grace maybe that its so damn weak that it may not eve really matter.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Made my mind up after seeing the Euro update.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I pretty much have my mind made up as to what my primary analog is going to be, but will see what happens over the course of the next few weeks. Part of me just wants to rattle things off early before I leave Friday night, but experience tells me to wait.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Modest la nina intensity amid a negative QBO backdrop argues for that.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    All I was asking is what does EP stand for? East Pacific?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cosgrove mentioned 1976....funny.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jim, like I said on Twitter...your work is very similar to mine, right down to the cited source...uncanny. Same page, bud.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am getting 2017-2018 vibes.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, at least we won't need to mow Yankee stadium...let the elephants graze....
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