Congrats to me on winning the trailer park beauty pageant, I guess
I was speaking more to coastals.....if it tracks inside the BM, that is a lot of fuel for a CF between 128 and 495.
I wouldn't get too bent out of shape about down east Maine getting nailed this week, though I know I joked about it, but with the RNA going nowhere we are going to need that polar drain from confluence moving forward.
If I had to give the edge to December or March as a winter March, it would be March TBH...it bares fruit more often for SNE.
This season will be no different.
Phase 8 gets the PNA involved...7 isn't a death knell, but just means we will continue to deal with the RNA longer. Roll the dice enough with -NAO/RNA and we will hit on something. Phase 8 was always iffy in my mind....
I was thinking a month after the split as a lag....so I think I technically had it splitting in latter January, so late Feb/early March. But my timing could def be off....I'd be happy just to get the idea right.
Euro does miss in the medium range, but it capitulates so deliberately that you're passed out by the time you can realize it was wrong. I think that MO is built into them model's algorithm.