40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Other than surge, west of landfall sees higher impact bc it's where the flooding rains will be
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Told you guys last night NHC would sway back east.
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No, just won't be most prominent threat...it said in the blog, TS force gusts interior.
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Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/hurricane-warnings-in-effect-for.html
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It's called steady state...its not going to dissipate, either.
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Yea, I was talking to you, not at.
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Find one person to claim I have dissapeared following a bad forecast, and I'll own it. As for having a blog in relation to a hobby without being famous...guilty.
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I wonder if they will disappear for months following a bad forecast?
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I'll do Final this evening, but I am pretty comfy with the going forecast...mainly just an update to include rainfall totals and perhaps a tickle east...I'm good with the intensity forecast.
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The evacuation of energy is every bit as important as the ingest, just the same as it is with respect to human beings. This is why you can't just stare at SST charts in a vacuum to inform forecasts.
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Bingo....that was always our only avenue to history with Henri, and it too looks to fail.
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The system was never likely to encounter the pristine conditions needed in the upper atmosphere to recover entirely from being nearly gutted by that hostile encounter with shear. It was too far north. Gulf stream takes care of the fuel at the surface, but entire exhaust system and a significant portion of the mositure transport that feeds these giant heat engines takes place aloft.
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There are still a few analyzing every latest sat image convincing themselves that it's about to "take off"...lol Its always been going to be a bad nor Easter.
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I would give a greater than 50/50 shot it landfalls as a TS, but won't make a difference.
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I've always just expected hydro issues...its not going to intensify much.
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Euro likes my Montauk point idea.
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Shocker...
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I'm not criticizing NHC...you have to act conservatively in that position.
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Montauk Point....watch.
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They did in response to the trends of this past day.
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The NHC often is slow to react to trends in an effort to avoid overreacting and windshield wipering....there is a lag, if you will....they will drift back eastward tmw.
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I think things overcorrected too far to the left...its not hitting NYC.
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Seven weather team may end up being bunned
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Opposite...outflow from it is inhibiting.
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It doesn't mean banana hammock lol...Just no extreme threats.
