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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not worried. Don't get me wrong, it sucked seeing that, but it doesn't change my early view on where we are headed.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance said the EPO should not be as hostile as it was last season. He is a great forecaster, but this shit is hard. He also has some favorable analogs, too. Let's see what his NAO formula has...should be out soon. Chuck's is negative. I never said it means it's wrong, but it's pretty tough to forecast the polar domain days in advance, never mind months.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Had the same thing last year...then little by little, they all got a clue.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bamwx feels as though Euro is too warm.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll sell that for now, though its certainly not comforting.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just going to say...I like Feb better lol
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    What does la nina look like? Stronger and/or more west based?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was hideous last year at this time, too...glad I ignored it. Maybe its right this year, but it has struggled with the tropics.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have noticed that structure....ie east vs west(modoki) isn't as important in weak events, as there is much more variance due to other exogenous factors......2000-2001 for instance was about as modoki as they come, but you never would have known it in terms of sensible weather....2008-2009 was also modoki and was pretty cold. Then again, 2005-2006 was very east based and yet pretty mild.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    96-97 was cool neutral FWIW.. How about 75-76, 89-90 and 2011-2012?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nah....met degree taken from the kids' play pen?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not all about temps...it won't grow much due to limited sun this time if year.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just mowed and trimmed for final time on Saturday...will start raking when I return from Africa
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yawn
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you just add a degree to the composite, but disregarding a potentially good analog due to GW is silly.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, maybe winter ends up mild, but the CFS will be wrong on ENSO....I can tell you that.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am willing to guess you have a long, and violent gender at 01-02 and 11-12 every cool ENSO I have questions about his methodology, too...but unlikely a pro met residing in Texas with over 40 years of experience is favoring big NE snow years as analogs out of bias. It's just a pet peeve of mine to ostracize and call bias bc you (collective not personal) do not like the composite outcome. Anyway, LC did very well last season FWIW.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's possible for you to ever favor a colder outcome. If you wanna question his methods, fine, but the guy isn't picking it analogs based upon waste coast snowfall....or by ENSO.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could def. deal with Cosgrove's analog composite lol.....1976, 1995, 2007 and 2020. Last year is the only one that wasn't outstanding here, but not concerned about LBSW in consecutive la ninas.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tossed.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...its going to be pretty close to the border of weak and mod.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed. Not best case, not worst case.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    My point isn't that it will be a carbon copy of last year...rather we should have some volatility...like last year.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, as they did last year. Central based la nina...not modoki, which is the kiss of death. Not east based, either...
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, "well" is a relative term...when the other option is cyhphilis, then I'll be content with herpes.
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