40/70 Benchmark
-
Posts
73,328 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
-
His sanity
-
You guys are swinging too wildly to extremes....it still looks okay moving ahead. Odds are never great at plowing in November around here.
-
I agree. I said going into the month that we had a greater than climo shot at significant snows, but that doesn't mean it has to pan out, and odds are still against this doing the deed HERE. Somewhere.....more likely, sure.
-
Good luck. I never had any interest in that...maybe you can pull off something.
-
Yea, its not vanishing art this point.
-
He does tend to act like the PV is all that matters...very linear forecasting.
-
My critique of him is that he is more of a researcher than a forecaster.
-
https://www.wcvb.com/article/winter-weather-outlook-boston-massachusetts-area-2021-2022/38258335 Sounds a lot like my forecast, though I maybe a bit cooler in December and milder in January. He has 50" for Boston, I think I had 45-55".
-
I could see December ending up a bit above normal, but its not going to be a torch. He must feel the PV is going to be disrupted late season, which is also my call.
-
2021-2022 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I went into the seasoning envisioning some of those -PDO/NAO 60's seasons, though obviously modified. -
I like the 1983-1984 analog.
-
I know....I was thinking the same thing...I can see that more for like 1997 or 1982 with individual, freak spring blizzards.
-
I would say out of that awful group, fear 1953 the most.
-
We aren't having a 2011. The vortex isn't as strong.
-
Yea, the RNA is why there was a sharp snowfall gradient N of NYC....not unlike Feb 1969.
-
Exactly.
-
How often do we see huge signals dampen as they near?
-
I honestly think 1995 is a good analog to start the season...main difference being that the PNA may not be quite as robust...we'll see. That would be more of an issue for the MA in terms of snowfall, and mean that it probably wouldn't be as cold overall.
-
I buy it. Maybe time for subscriptions in a week or so.
-
Yea, October and early Novie were very mild. Strange because I also anticipate a bit of a STJ presence this season, which is one peculiar trait for a la nina season that that year had.
-
This pattern reminds me of that.
-
Of course Will remembers precisely how many leaves blew done throughout SNE in the event...I was just happy to be in the ballpark-
-
Does anyone remember that huge storm that buried Pittsburgh, PA and rained on us in Novie 1995? Then we had that mixed event later in the month and it never stopped snowing. That is what this storm reminds me of.
-
There is always something that can go wrong in any setup, but on average there is more margin for error with a big NAO block than with a positive NAO.
-
No, I get it...just giving you a hard time. Even for me, enormous NAO blocks are a bit riskier.
