40/70 Benchmark
-
Posts
72,921 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
-
It's not all about temps...it won't grow much due to limited sun this time if year.
-
I just mowed and trimmed for final time on Saturday...will start raking when I return from Africa
-
SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021
40/70 Benchmark replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
Yawn -
Yea, you just add a degree to the composite, but disregarding a potentially good analog due to GW is silly.
-
Yea, maybe winter ends up mild, but the CFS will be wrong on ENSO....I can tell you that.
-
I am willing to guess you have a long, and violent gender at 01-02 and 11-12 every cool ENSO I have questions about his methodology, too...but unlikely a pro met residing in Texas with over 40 years of experience is favoring big NE snow years as analogs out of bias. It's just a pet peeve of mine to ostracize and call bias bc you (collective not personal) do not like the composite outcome. Anyway, LC did very well last season FWIW.
-
I don't think it's possible for you to ever favor a colder outcome. If you wanna question his methods, fine, but the guy isn't picking it analogs based upon waste coast snowfall....or by ENSO.
-
I could def. deal with Cosgrove's analog composite lol.....1976, 1995, 2007 and 2020. Last year is the only one that wasn't outstanding here, but not concerned about LBSW in consecutive la ninas.
-
Tossed.
-
2021-2022 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes...its going to be pretty close to the border of weak and mod. -
Agreed. Not best case, not worst case.
-
My point isn't that it will be a carbon copy of last year...rather we should have some volatility...like last year.
-
Yea, as they did last year. Central based la nina...not modoki, which is the kiss of death. Not east based, either...
-
Yea, "well" is a relative term...when the other option is cyhphilis, then I'll be content with herpes.
-
@snowman19I think what you are pining for is a modoki, which is solidly region 4 focused, not a central based event....the latter, like last year, is what this event is. It's more variable with mixed features of modoki and west-based events.
-
Sure we can....its alot easier the more east based la nina is. Keep the coolest anonalies out of region 4.
-
It is and has been a central based event..region 1.2 has positive anomalies, however, the coolest anomalies should steer clear of region 4. I haven't issued any forecast and won't until early November.
-
Yea, especially down there...we can get away with it in NE. But +EPO sucks for everyone.
-
October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Kev does... -
October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
I doubt it. October is the steepest drop in climo...pretty tough to entirely compensate for that. Anomaly wise. sure... -
Its good provided that we get a mechanism in the n PAC to reposition the cold in AK southward...otherwise, cold in AK is 2001-2002, 2011-2012. lol
-
The 1960's were predominately -PDO/-NAO.
-
I think it takes a high-end winter off of the table for you guys, but you could still pull a 2010-2011 type season in which you do well, though still looking over your shoulder and grimacing at NE. But hey, at least the Pats suck now lol
-
In order for the NAO to promote cold, there needs to be cold air around....-NAO is not a source. Its like a lid on the cap, so to speak...it prevents the cold from being eradicating and retards its departure once in place. It does help to bleed cold air in from the north, but primarily due to the AO component. A +EPO-/-NAO will keep the NE in the game for snow because you can get some conducive tracks, but its not a frigid pattern. Bottom line is that if you want cold, keep the EPO negative.
-
They do. Good friend of mine is longshoreman in southie...powerful union.
