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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    The reason that I think blocking during la nina is a stronger signal for snow in NE, than in an el nino is bc there isn't much that can go wrong with a n stream dominant storm track coupled with blocking. You are just about locked into favorable tracks for the vast majority of storms. During el nino, you and get 2010ed, or 1979ed.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    2005-2006 was mitigated somewhat by the obscene Pac jet.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    To go along with the seasons like 2010-2011 and 2014-2015, I do expect more seasons like 2011-2012, too...more extremes and uneven distribution.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Beyond my lifetime....def. a bit more quickly in Jersey.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I for one do not care to have a vortex as weak as last year.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I suspect that was the case in 1995-1996? I need to research the Indonesia dipole...don't really know much about that. Could have a STJ in play more typical of el nino, which is what we had in 1996. 2000-2001 was just a very active N stream.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, many years after the daily max temps begin to rise more precipitously....as of now, its mainly mins, which does not reduce snowfall at this latitude. It will slow the icing of ponds, sure.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....more "lump sum" dumps...goes with the theme.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I certainly do not see anything blog worthy as of yet.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it was a harrowing night, but I survived. Will post pics one week from never.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems as though the impact of global warming on snowfall is mimicking the trend in the distribution of wealth over the past 50 years in that there is in ever greater distinction between the "haves" and "have nots".
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Our snowfall def has not decreased any since 2007, I can tell you that.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to back up what Will was saying...the more marginal areas, like Virginia, lower plains and lower terrain of PNW have decreased, while parts of NE have actually increased.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The percentages look a bit more optimistic for snowfall in the mid Atlantic than the text map. Strange that it implies that the mid ATL does better than SNE, too. Not sure I would hedge that way.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice, yea...just as I had thought. Last March was a nice catalyst for regression lol
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanksgiving turkies drowning everywhere in the 1950s.....
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just as it does in typical warm air advection.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could def. see the freezing of ponds being delayed as a result of global warming...that makes sense. I was just speaking strictly in terms of seasonal snowfall locally when I disputed the impact of global warming.
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  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    2008 also featured the two-pronged heavy event around that same date.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Given that the vast majority of warming, at least locally, is being observed with respect to nighttime lows, I would venture to guess that any decrease in snow cover days is more at the bookends of the season...in December and March. I would actually strongly favor December given seasonal lag and increased propensity for blocking patterns during the spring. In short, I would guess December is seeing the lion's share of a decease in snowcover days (sorry rev) over the course of the past 30+ years.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    No. Looks like it is a park?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was my original contention in the post that John replied to. What are you referring to then?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would characterize 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015 as pretty good retention winters over the course of the past decade....even 2017-2018 in March. I think achieving a snowpack of near 3' in eastern Mass twice in a decade is at least average frequency, and probably above.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is also a theory that since the polar region is warming fastest by far, that we may be more prone to high latitude blocking, but that is more nebulous. I know that Will had an interesting counter to that theory a few years back, but I can't remember what it was. The rest of the support for snowfall not decreasing much around here anytime soon is really isn't debatable.
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