40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Winter 20-21 Discussion
40/70 Benchmark replied to griteater's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2/4 of my mixed la nina composite. 1970, 1999, 2007 and 2010. I incorporated 2010 very little for various reasons. 2007 is best. -
Yea, I was being conservative.
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2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
ACE is up to 180....I think @raindancewx said 175 was the breaking point for snowier outcomes in the NE, but since they name every pop up shower today, maybe 170 is a more accurate assessment of this season's activity. Close. -
I was just ripping through 2015 threads....good shit. Maintains winter morale...
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Well, the globe has warmed in 35 years....I think the PDO was predominately positive, too. The arctic was similar.
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I think we are....usually about every 30-40 yrs....
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I think the forcing will be more representative of an east-based la nina during December, which would imply lift closer to the maritime region, as you suggested...but its funny that Will is referencing the how people would be bridge jumping if a the end to a good pattern was in sight because we will likely see the usual suspects do just that later in December and early January. The VP potential should migrate back to the west as la nina matures, so the favorable change should be temporary.
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I would be surprised of it had staying power. Obviously the risk is heightened this season, but I don't think that a 2011-2012 style wall-to-wall pig was ever the most likely outcome.
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Navahut MILFS....grab a clunker and take her to sled dog night.
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Every post for about the past 3 years.
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The abridged cliff-note version of Tip.
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So we get a perfect track with cold rain and only freeze one nut off. Yay.
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So Canada won't be void of cold....its a balance.
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Alaska and October stole our snow in 2011-2012. Mid atl stole it in 2009-2010.
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I don't think the DM period will be heavily RNA, as many suspect.
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Very possible. I could def. see January being the better month of the DJ period. I would be surprised if Feb was good, though.
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My only point is that its early, so I would wait for it to play out a bit more before bridge jumping. There is no denying that rat potential is above climo this year...I could easily see it playing out like that.
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If aren't squinting in NSE to imagine a winter landscape in November, its a pretty epic pattern. That is the only saving grace here....we are burning crap climo. Def. need some changes over the course of the next month.
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Hope you feel better soon, bro....good time to be laid up, wxwise lol Zzzzzzzzzzz
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I feel as though any help in December well come from the EPO or the arctic, the latter of which looks a bit more dubious at this point. Play it out, though...I tend to not deviate from the forecast seasonal progression because of guidance, unless it becomes overwhelmingly obvious in the medium range.
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Halloween was a touch colder here...interesting.
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I would be surprised if I end up with under 12" or so for December, but if I do, watch out....good sign of a rat. Tough to tell for sure, though, with the changing climate.
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Yea, without any exceptions for the stronger events.
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15.6 off a daytime high of 31 yesterday...second coldest, so far.....Halloween morning was 15.
