40/70 Benchmark

Yea, ninjad.

So many people overlook that propagation aspect, which really is the smoking gun in the whole SSW ordeal....I mean, who cares if it gets toasty up at 60K if it doesn't make it down to where the weather synoptically materializes in the troposphere. As far as this season goes, I am resigned to failure on that aspect of my work this past fall.

Hopefully I get a good stretch. If not, I'm over it. Really no excuse do get obnoxious about it, either way. I get carried away sometimes.

Hopefully we can score a PD II type overrunning Goliath in this pattern.

40.8/39

Yea, I can tell you and I are a a lot alike from the baseball league lol

Yea, onto spring

Yea, it's insane how much time I spend starting in the fall...its easy to drive yourself nuts.

Yea, time for another break from this place

As frustrated as I got, I don't feel that way at all...laying low for a week or so does wonders for the frustration.

I usually clean up on SWFE/front enders, but I got porked on the one we had (MLK) BC of easterly flow.

Yea, coastal Jersey down to Delmarva has had a flukey good year....that same band goes right up through Steve over to Bret. Always fun seeing those little seasonal nuances, it's just more enjoyable when I'm not on the outside looking in lol

Not slammed, but a decent winter considering la nina. Hit all of my ranges down there, except for Philly....still time, though.

Yea, I said earlier...with that PAC look, not sure we would want an NAO block this far north. I mean, I guess we could still get porked by a stray lobe, but its tougher...

Yea, I agree. That is from my outlook back in November....the SSW/blocking didn't work out, but sensible result could still be good.

Not much to tell....just basically thinking out loud. But it is a year I will take a look depending how things shake out.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/02/why-coming-thaw-does-not-portend-end-of.html

YES. Agree.....I am actually glad that the blocking has not materialized, or we may have more of an issue up here.

This I agree with.....but I do not envision a PD 1, Feb 2010 or Jan 2016 deal, where it gets shunted south of us. Believe me, the way that this winter has gone for me, I would call for that at least excuse imaginable...but I just do not see that.

Doubt it.

I think the PV would have to drop really far to the south for that, which would be difficult given how potent it is right now....this is entirely Pacific driven. I don't see this as a suppression issue for SNE.

Lights and clothing off, siren on.

Looks like GEFS. #nudityinbrooklyn

Maybe 10m from sea level, so you're ripping at 1000' in the Tolland Alps.

I think its both....depends on which season, but generally speaking, east-based la nina events, like modoki el nino events, tend to be less pervasive forces in the atmosphere (though this one was very prominent early on)....so it makes sense that some of the disconnect from la nina climo may be a byproduct of that. But its also due to the fact that the forcing tends to make it farther to the east, closer to the dateline in east-based la nina events, like Scott was illustrating via VP image. Anyway, just as you say that everything is caused by an event in the atmosphere, I am of the opinion that there is rarely one "silver bullet" or "smoking gun", so to speak. In fact, its usually an agglomeration of factors working in concert and vying for proxy. The HC stuff totally makes sense to me...my aim wasn't to dispute that in any way....just want to be careful not to overattribute phenomena to it.