40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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@EastonSN+No worries at all.....you weren't being argumentative in the least. Nothing wrong with looking for clarification. -
I'm just going on past experience....guidance in general, especially the EURO, tend to stall/capture these systems a bit too aggressively. But full disclosure...its just a hedge on my part. No scientific reason why that can't happen, especially since this is more of a Miller A. JMHO, capture will tic later and a bit more progreessive.
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I would def. sell that early of a capture.
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That's Boxing Day for me, with better inflow, so it would probably be a little better.
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I liked 00z better.....majority of SNE shouldn't want it stalling that far south. Maybe towards Luke....
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I'll bet the 12z will capture later again.
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Euro went back to a little more of a LBSW look.
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Shocking....who would have thought?
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I have already told you what to do...why bother to ask?
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+.5" yesterday 10.5" on the season.
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Remarkable agreement between GEM and EURO on placement of the band....GEM just captures later.
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I think the GEM is more realistic and much closer to reality further down the coast in Jersey.
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Yea, most LBSW members gone bye-bye.
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I feel confident this may capture a bit less/later as we move forward....maybe I'm wrong. It may have done most of the correcting already, though.
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I understand that, but does that have to do with anything?
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Actually peaks at 968mb, as opposed to 966 at 12z.
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Those will probably shrivel some going forward.
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WOR....STOP WORRYING. You have margin for error on that map, and keep in mind...I agree east kicks are still likely, but model QPF is NOT going to capture the full extent of that deformation, so its not far enough west to begin with. NVM that this has so much s stream origin. This is NOT Juno....this is NOT March 2018.....this is on another level as far as regional impact, though probably similar east. This will be the most severe regional impactor in 9 years- Period.
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Man, that run is 3' in the CTRV....IDC what anyone says.
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I know. Another consideration.....occlusion is now delayed, so this won't be as banded as prior runs.......maybe the subby holes are 18" now, instead of 12". That will be a wall of water plowing into deform zone.
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Leave it to scooter to come up with the verbal dutch oven-
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I would go BLIZZ Watch from Kevin to ORH to ASH
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I would still be very hopeful from CTRV points east, and still in the game all the way back to NY border.
