40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Ugh...hadn't seen this. Sorry to be redundant. -
Same page....I hit on both of these aspects in my first call.
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Kev must have early onset dementia...always disoriented.
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Disregarded for now.
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Unfortunately, Henry's weather looks pretty boring on Monday.
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Final Call on Sunday.. First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/first-call-for-major-mess-likely-tuesday.html
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Agree.
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Technically, yea. The N stream phases into the back side of the trough, which tilts it negative and slings the s stream SW up the coast.
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Aside from some weenie PTSD derived superstition about when to start threads....
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Nothing wrong with your original post, frustration not withstanding. It was actually some stellar, spot on analysis.
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I would say literally like 8/10 times phasing is over modeled, question is by how much.
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I agree wholesale with this.
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The bottom line is that whenever it feels as though a positive development is emerging with respect to this system, wait for the catch.
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Don't worry be ginxy
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@White Gorilladisagrees
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Yea, okay..agree....but I think 12" is pushing it. That high would need to trend better fast BC I doubt we wil see the necessary mid level changes to drive those amounts.
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I think that is a reasonable ceiling for my area.
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LOL Load Blown Southwest...just a raunchy vernacular for occlusion.
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Believe me, if I saw something that changed my mind, I would derobe....hell, I was pretty optimistic as recently as last night, but I think we are running out of time to recapture the potential that this system once possesed for this area
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I could easily see the SLP end up near the upper cape, but that doesn't change the fact that the mechanics to drive a very heavy snowfall are just not present, barring major wholesale changes that seem very unlikely at this lead. Not trying to be a debbie, but that is how I see it...and yes, my frustration with this season is oozing out into my posts.
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Hopefully the deformation sets up over WMontpelier with a sharp cutoff to the east.
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No issue with this at all...sounds reasonable. I just sold the big solutions.
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That may help with the track and confluence, but you still have things occluding pretty far west. It would help, but its not a silver bullet.
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Just post the one piece of guidance that looks favorable, its the new cooler.
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We'll see what happens. Maybe I am wrong, but I just see too many red flags at too little of a lead time to forecast big snows.
