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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That makes sense. Thanks.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am not a tide guy ( @Ginx snewx), but this could have some truly epic coastal flooding along the south coast...that will be the story.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, its more pronounced than usual, sure...I was answering specifically to initialization. Its fine to disagree and explain a position like you guys have done, but the douchey, condescending tone isn't needed.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurately- deal with that.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably a TS if it ever makes LF.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...the obsession with the precise initialized minimum central pressure is strange.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not saying much....I'm sure this fall we will see the closest signal for snow since last spring.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting conclusion to the NHC DISCO: I think it's worth noting that the GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on subsequent advisories.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Except when they hit...I don't understand your point. I am not speaking of climo, I am referring to the forecast consensus.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think what I struggle with even more than a potential landfall is a particularly intense landfall considering the slow forward motion relative to climo....talk about needing the thread a needle for a land falling cane in the NE, but I guess that is always the case.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks pretty reasonable....I see a couple of my early favored analogs in there.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just don't see a scenario that SNE gets hit with a hurricane.....tropical storm, maybe, but odds still favor OTS.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree....I just mentioned Edouard as an analog on FB.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its more interesting, but still not very interesting IMO.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its not about SST....check TCHP.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, you would be able to guess that by the way that I post.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny thing is that I am a LICSW...no one would guess that based upon how I write lol
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    "I know it’s usually HECS or bust for you but there’s a lot of marginal stuff that may not bring exciting conditions to your backyard in between that’s worth a little discussion". @WxWatcher007This last part is BS.....I track and forecast all tropical systems that have a shot at significant impact anywhere in the US. There haven't been any this season (Elsa was minimal).
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm just irritated that there hasn't been anything interesting in six months...nothing personal.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its worth watching, as I am into the science of it all....but the Euro predicts you to remain a dude while gaining 30lbs and continuing to grey. I know where my money is.......
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't get me wrong, I know you are likely to remain a dude, but models have struggled this season.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really do think Scooter playing the rest of his life out as a male is most likely, but I wouldn't say its a lock. Everything would really need to come into place fairly quickly for Allison to allow his outtie to convert to an innie.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    What a boring tropical season so far, and I see nothing interesting on the table.....tough to swallow after such a tepid end to winter in classic la nina fasion.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
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