40/70 Benchmark

March was pretty well forecast....I was all over the blocking head fake from the composite, which I fell for last year. Not this year....I knew it would hold off until April. March 2021 Review Teleconnections Following the deviation from the forecast in February, owed to the mid winter Sudden Stratospheric Warming protracting the blocking from the first half of the season, March has gone essentially according to plan. Any residual high latitude blocking relinquished its grip by mid February, paving the way for a very benign and unremarkable weather pattern across the region. The supposition from the winter outlook was that the reemergence of blocking during the month of March, which was implied by the forecast composite, would materialize more slowly than forecast and likely be delayed until April, much like last season. This assertion was based on both the +QBO, as well as the proclivity for moderate or stronger la nina events to truncate the winter season. This forecast assertion as proved correct, as the polar domain remain relatively hostile to sustained winter weather for the vast majority of the month. As evidenced in the annotation above, some degree of blocking does look to reestablish itself during the month of April. This likely would have happened sooner had the la nina remained weaker, and/or the QBO were less resistant to high latitude blocking. Another implication of la nina remaining at moderate intensity into March is that the RNA pattern did not relinquish its grip as much as it could have if the cool ENSO event had either remained weak, or weakened at a faster rate. Although the largely hostile polar domain and the lingering la nina did lead to relatively mild and quiet month of March with a great dearth of snowfall, it was not exotically warm in the mean, given that Aleutian ridge did indeed extend more poleward this month, as forecast. Composite Verification Here is the H5 composite for the month of March 2021: Actual March 2021 H5 Composite Note that while lower heights were prevalent both across the higher latitudes, as well as the western CONUS, the Aleutian ridge did extend more to the NW and poleward, as forecast. Eastern Mass Weather March 2021 Forecast H5 Composite This acted to partially negate the modifying influence of the lower heights across higher latitudes and the the western US, which resulted in approximately a +1F monthly departure from the mean across the region. Actual March 2021 Temp Anomalies This was near the higher end of the forecast range for near normal monthly departures. Eastern Mass Weather Forecast March 2021 Temp Departures Finally, the month features below average precipitation, which worked in concert with the slightly above average temps to leave the region essentially void of monthly snowfall. Actual March 2021 Precip Anomalies These dry conditions were also congruent with the forecast expectations from last November for month of March. Eastern Mass Weather March 2021 Forecast Precip Anomalies The complete forecast review for the entirety of the winter 2020-2021 season will be issued in May.

He is a fool the other 11 months, too...not partial to April.

I saw that coming this year.

More dependable because if I do jack, then you aren't hearing anything....there is no way out of April.

I think next winter will atone for this up there.

Moderate.

February was def. colder and snowier than I had thought, but to be fair....I don't think its a huge shock that the signature phase change event of the season leaked over into the start of February...I mentioned that was possible. My miss this season was the SSW, which protracted the colder appeal and blocking into Feb. I will do the post analysis in May, as always. Glad I hedged lame in March, despite the big blocking signature evident in my March analog composite. Fooled me last year, but not this year. I will never sign off on a big ending for SNE during a moderate of greater la nina.

Too bad that this season went out with a whimper, but par for the course in a moderate or greater la nina....tried to tell 'em.

1971-1972, 1984-1985 and 2008-2009 maybe a few early analogs to consider. Just food for thought, at this point.

I hope that happens for the sake of my forecast across NNE.

Tons to look forward to....I enjoy watching the nucleus of a young team evolve....I don't need a WS every season.

I love this time of year...so dangerous and always living on the edge. See ya in May for a day, then August.

I'm okay with it...was just frustrating bc it left so much on the table and porked me compared to further SW. My tolerance for meteorological frustration is greater later in the season.

Final Call is cancelled lol Maybe up to an inch in some (lucky?) spots. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/03/not-so-snowy-friday-am-commute-final.html

Yes, I agree, but my point is that my grade was lower than many other people's due to the lack of a big event where I lived.

Right...its fine to disagree; I'm just clarifying my case. I will admit, my affinity for large events skews my grades....conversely, I am lower on years like 1993-1994 and 2013-2014 than most.

Its also about how you arrived at the temps...I mean, after the Grinch, we had virtually no torches. It doesn't matter to me if you achieve positive anomalies by making into the 20s at night instead of teens. I'd actually prefer it, since I have to venture out in the AM.

Right....I guess its dependent on personal scale. D for me is last year....awful winter, but a great event. F would be like 2001-2002 or 2011-2012 (I got screwed in halloween deal). I love the big events, so tough for me to fail a season when those are dished out.....if you are going to fail due to above avg temps, it may be time to implement a curve.

That seems low to me...we had one storm well over a foot, one near a foot and over a month of solid pack. Solidly below avg snowfall, but not ratter. C- fits for me.

Be careful and stay safe-

Do you think the drier air is sneaky?

Compromise is about right.

Yes.

Agree, for the most part.