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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Going to need devine intervention from the ERC gods in order to avoid an all out calamity IMHO...that, and/or a fortuitous track over the marshland of SW LA.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That coupled with current OHC profile and dual outflow channels is the blue print to avoiding the northern Gulf coast collapser sceanario. Strikes me a scenario in which landfall intensity will be driven nearly exclusively by internal processes.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    To chase? That is on my bucket list...along with a 4'+ Rockies blitz
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it may have a slightly more favorable set up for maintaining intensity to LF than Laura did.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Too bad I don't live in the area, though I do work in Chelsea....maybe I could find my old Buick to do drove by roof measurements? lol
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    GAS UP!
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he is a seasonal dude like me..says he was here Friday, but that may just have been due to Henri.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am optimistic in general.....also helps that la nina no longer appears to be shaping up as modoki, per subsurface trends. This may help to focus forcing more westward out in the Pacific over the course of the cold season.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Great point...all the more reason to be careful about going too gung-ho with la nina in the analog package. LOL at the bolded...priceless quote.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't have an issue with including some moderate cool ENSO seasons in the analog package, especially moderate seasons that peaked near the weak/moderate threshold, like 2011 and 1984....because the MEI is at -1.5 right now, so this event is very well coupled. But I would not include any strong cool ENSO seasons at this point. But to each their own.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just came to the same, exact conclusion in my blog update on Monday. This is a bit of good news for fans of winter in the east.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, you said "except" Sandy, as if it countered the argument that neg NAO favors fish storms...I said that it isn't because it came up through the Carrieban, no the CV islands.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sandy hooked up from the Carribean. He was referring to the long track CV systems. His whole point was that home brew/Carribean systems would be the main threats
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, given that the ECMWF peaks at -.52C and the consensus of all guidance is -.55C, that makes sense. Still argues weak. I would advise caution with respect to persistence forecasting, as it works until it doesn't...case en point the NAO this past winter.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    IDK, I don't to long range tropical stuff....but I agree that neg NAO patterns generally favor recurcves.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Recipe for a low ACE season relative to activity level.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nope..not true with the expansion of the Hadley cell....you can choose to delude yourself by refusing to believe it if you wish, but there is peer reviewed material on the matter. Not published by myself, but if it were, it would be a hell of a lot longer.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely agree. The dew talk is on borrowed time.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously the US as a whole is far from done with tropical season, but we in the NE are not done either. Henri may have been a warm up.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I rolled my eyes every time I read "RI".....folks just can't recognize a skunked out core when they see one.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where is that, coastal RI?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Got about exactly as I had figured here, so wouldn't call the storm a "bust", though it certainly could have been much, much worse...maybe 1.5" of rain and 30ish mph gusts.....no complaints. I was not rooting for a flooded basement and loss of power with a couple of kids under 2 years old. Happy to have kept the damage in Tolland.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is mainly in the eastern zones, where we want it. I'm still not sold on moderate.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/matching-tropical-surface-stratosphere.html
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def. agree.
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