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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, okay....you know deep down the tamer idea is probably right. Lol
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would be worse..Bob was skimming NE, this is being obsorbed NNW.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could totally see that...
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Who issued a First Call?
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't see the avenue to acceleration.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is a shot points north of pike may not even see much of any impact.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    They imply the same scenario that I did....a strike over se NE as a TS.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am really having less of an issue with a potentially ominous track. What I can't get past is this not unraveling on approach...I don't care what the models show.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I said the same thing in my blog. Late Fri night into maybe very early Sunday is window.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here are some early thoughts... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/tropics-heating-up-as-scheduled.html
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That makes sense. Thanks.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am not a tide guy ( @Ginx snewx), but this could have some truly epic coastal flooding along the south coast...that will be the story.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, its more pronounced than usual, sure...I was answering specifically to initialization. Its fine to disagree and explain a position like you guys have done, but the douchey, condescending tone isn't needed.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurately- deal with that.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably a TS if it ever makes LF.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...the obsession with the precise initialized minimum central pressure is strange.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not saying much....I'm sure this fall we will see the closest signal for snow since last spring.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting conclusion to the NHC DISCO: I think it's worth noting that the GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on subsequent advisories.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Except when they hit...I don't understand your point. I am not speaking of climo, I am referring to the forecast consensus.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think what I struggle with even more than a potential landfall is a particularly intense landfall considering the slow forward motion relative to climo....talk about needing the thread a needle for a land falling cane in the NE, but I guess that is always the case.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks pretty reasonable....I see a couple of my early favored analogs in there.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just don't see a scenario that SNE gets hit with a hurricane.....tropical storm, maybe, but odds still favor OTS.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree....I just mentioned Edouard as an analog on FB.
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