Must just be a steeper gradient than I had suspected.
I have noted since moving here two years ago that the CF often stops at Haverhill, so that makes sense, actually.
Yes, I was surprised how low they were bc looking at the data, it seems pretty legit. I know I have told you in the past that I figured around 90" here.
@ORH_wxman Best I can gather is that my current spot probably had around 80" in 2007-08. Groveland, which is just se of Haverhill and seems like a reliable station, had 77.4".
Jive with your map?
The only slam-dunk limiting factors that I see are:
1) La nina will be moderate, not weak
2) La nina is basin wide, and has not remained relegated to the east basin.
3) QBO is positive.
None of those are death knells.
Yes. Agree....this is why we can take the CP la Nina conceptualization off of the table IMO, which is good news. However, it is already basin wide, so we can't really dub it an EP event, either....not so great.
My feelings are on the SAI is that is is a useful tool, but he doesn't use it correctly. Its but one indicator to be weighed against everything else, and predicating entire seasonal forecasts on it, as he does, is a recipe for failure.
I think its relatively likely for December....PNA is more dubious, but so far....it looks like the PDO may not be as hostile as originally feared, so...