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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I would pay them a nominal feel to do it and end this reign of unusable snowfall data from KBOS.
  2. Not really from like May to July...maybe a quick drive by now and again.
  3. "Morch" is not a winter month, yet September is a summer month with relentless dews....funny how that works.
  4. Its like March....wintry stretches come, but they have neither the ferocity nor staying power.
  5. Gee...that is unlike you, thought no one ever.
  6. Going to need devine intervention from the ERC gods in order to avoid an all out calamity IMHO...that, and/or a fortuitous track over the marshland of SW LA.
  7. That coupled with current OHC profile and dual outflow channels is the blue print to avoiding the northern Gulf coast collapser sceanario. Strikes me a scenario in which landfall intensity will be driven nearly exclusively by internal processes.
  8. To chase? That is on my bucket list...along with a 4'+ Rockies blitz
  9. I think it may have a slightly more favorable set up for maintaining intensity to LF than Laura did.
  10. Too bad I don't live in the area, though I do work in Chelsea....maybe I could find my old Buick to do drove by roof measurements? lol
  11. I think he is a seasonal dude like me..says he was here Friday, but that may just have been due to Henri.
  12. I am optimistic in general.....also helps that la nina no longer appears to be shaping up as modoki, per subsurface trends. This may help to focus forcing more westward out in the Pacific over the course of the cold season.
  13. Great point...all the more reason to be careful about going too gung-ho with la nina in the analog package. LOL at the bolded...priceless quote.
  14. I don't have an issue with including some moderate cool ENSO seasons in the analog package, especially moderate seasons that peaked near the weak/moderate threshold, like 2011 and 1984....because the MEI is at -1.5 right now, so this event is very well coupled. But I would not include any strong cool ENSO seasons at this point. But to each their own.
  15. I just came to the same, exact conclusion in my blog update on Monday. This is a bit of good news for fans of winter in the east.
  16. No, you said "except" Sandy, as if it countered the argument that neg NAO favors fish storms...I said that it isn't because it came up through the Carrieban, no the CV islands.
  17. Sandy hooked up from the Carribean. He was referring to the long track CV systems. His whole point was that home brew/Carribean systems would be the main threats
  18. Well, given that the ECMWF peaks at -.52C and the consensus of all guidance is -.55C, that makes sense. Still argues weak. I would advise caution with respect to persistence forecasting, as it works until it doesn't...case en point the NAO this past winter.
  19. IDK, I don't to long range tropical stuff....but I agree that neg NAO patterns generally favor recurcves.
  20. Recipe for a low ACE season relative to activity level.
  21. Nope..not true with the expansion of the Hadley cell....you can choose to delude yourself by refusing to believe it if you wish, but there is peer reviewed material on the matter. Not published by myself, but if it were, it would be a hell of a lot longer.
  22. Completely agree. The dew talk is on borrowed time.
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