40/70 Benchmark

Its more interesting, but still not very interesting IMO.

Its not about SST....check TCHP.

No, you would be able to guess that by the way that I post.

Funny thing is that I am a LICSW...no one would guess that based upon how I write lol

"I know it’s usually HECS or bust for you but there’s a lot of marginal stuff that may not bring exciting conditions to your backyard in between that’s worth a little discussion". @WxWatcher007This last part is BS.....I track and forecast all tropical systems that have a shot at significant impact anywhere in the US. There haven't been any this season (Elsa was minimal).

I'm just irritated that there hasn't been anything interesting in six months...nothing personal.

Its worth watching, as I am into the science of it all....but the Euro predicts you to remain a dude while gaining 30lbs and continuing to grey. I know where my money is.......

Don't get me wrong, I know you are likely to remain a dude, but models have struggled this season.

I really do think Scooter playing the rest of his life out as a male is most likely, but I wouldn't say its a lock. Everything would really need to come into place fairly quickly for Allison to allow his outtie to convert to an innie.

What a boring tropical season so far, and I see nothing interesting on the table.....tough to swallow after such a tepid end to winter in classic la nina fasion.

Yea, too many knee-jerk reactions going over board with la nina last month...could see this coming.

Not necessarily....there is some evidence that la nina coupled with easterly QBO leads to a flatter NPAC ridge, but I was honestly interested in hearing his rationale.

Why?

Agreed.

Could be a Fran or Bertha type deal....

Some will, I won't.

Ahh...good, 'ole summer banter, which consists of the usual bickering over whether 91/63 or 84/71 is preferred. See ya soon.

I wouldn't say last season has a weak MEI....it was on par with a moderate event.

Works for me.

I am not remiss that 1977 is so prevalent in rainedance's research.

Makes sense to me, as well because I do think that is a very good analog.

Yea, that was the primary impetus behind that winter being a no-show. Bit of a conflicting signal there, as easterly QBO is generally more conducive to high latitude blocking. It will bare watching, but I think the fact that this event should remain pretty weak and peak early will help our cause. I am not at all pessimistic and feel relatively confident.

Be careful with that linear line of thinking....like I was saying to Will above....the MEI is a measure of how well coupled the ocean (ENSO event) is with the atmosphere, rather than a strict measure of strength. So while I do modify my list of analogs somewhat based upon MEI data, it should not be substituted for the ONI. A weak la nina with a strong MEI means that we have a weak la nina that is very well coupled with the atmosphere, not a strong la nina. What this means is that this particular ENSO event is more likely to be able to play a prominent role in modulating the forcing relative to other events of comparable ONI strength that are less coupled with the atmosphere....IE we are more likely to see a la nina footprint over the course of a season than others. I would also venture to say that the prudent course of action is to err more towards moderate ONI analogs, then cool-neutral, since we know it is impacting the atmosphere somewhat more proficiently than other events of comparable ONI. ONI=strength of influence, MEI=the ability of the ENSO event to impart its will around the hemisphere, regardless of strength. A crude sports analogy is to think of the fact that your most powerful athletes are not always the most prolific..., sure, there is a correlation. But the best athletes a feature the nexus of strength and skill.

I don't feel like we are going to see a monster +AO, though, so while 2011-2012 may be a viable analog....I wouldn't be too concerned about such a dire outcome.