40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I didn't go big last season. I was around normal, but was still way off. The season before I went big.
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Yea, August didn't knock my socks off, either.
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Looks like I would be near the line on that...cute fantasy.
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I may do another one on EMI (el nino modoki index), or just integrate that into the ENSO section of the actual outlook...not sure.
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It was just too tedious the other way. I feel it distracted people from the point of the whole damn exercise, which to to convey my thoughts as to how the ensuing winter will evolve. However, the guys like @HoarfrostHubb, who like the foundational material, can simply clink the link.
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Here is the last one on the EPO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/winter-2020-2021-addendum-5-east.html
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These are just basic refreshers to get primed for the actual outlook....if you don't need it, then don't bother. I know that I usually do...especially for the tropical stuff. This should help shorten the finished product and make it more practical for consumption.
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Addendum #4: The Pacific Oscillations: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/winter-2020-2021-addendum-4-pacific.html
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Addendum #3: The Arctic Atmosphere: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/winter-2020-2021-addendum-3-arctic.html
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2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1996 was marginal...okay, but by what metric was 2001 a moderate la nina? It was weak by all accounts, as far as I'm concerned. -
2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looks like it will be a moderate la nina to me. -
Drop a "compression of the geopotential medium" bomb and we good.
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Winter Outlook 2020-2021 The Hadley Cell has expanded with a great deal of panache. Look for your dopamine elsewhere.... The end-
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I forget some of it each offseason, TBH....as I check out. I need to go back over it, myself.
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All you will need to do is clink a link. I will be publishing a few more supplementary addendums this week. I will reference them near the onset of each section and link them.
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I think you make a great point TBH. like I said, format will be less tedious this season....that background stuff will be option and not baked into the outlook.
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Yes, I meant for SNE.
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I don't value you that as much as some do...I know raindance is big on that. But again.....just because I incorporate an analog does not mean I endorse it 100%. A concept I wish people could grasp more assertively with respect to politics.
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Its not a problem if you apply them correctly, which I will attempt to do. Not all about blocking, though....you guys need it to couple with a PNA spike, usually. SNE ca get away with one or the other.
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At least you'll have time to read them this season. Learn a few things and revive the Ginxy Gale monthly calls.
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Its around average, I think...which makes sense.
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Its pretty self explanatory......IMHO those are the best matches using a combo of ENSO intensity and distribution of warmest SST anomalies. I mean, we are mainly referencing "anomalies" when speaking of sensible weather, so I don't see why the end result should be much different. I def. would shy away from using very potent la nina as analog seasons, given that ENSO may not be as a pervasive driver due to AGW.
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It can't go on forever...same deal with the Pats. Eventually, even the best step back for a time.
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That is not my complete composite....just the three best ENSO matches by a combo of structure and intensity.
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How does Arozarena and Brousard's a$$ taste?
